Business news 7 October 2024
Reeves promises guardrails. Business confidence. SMEs rally for right to switch off. New employment rights. The Sticky floor. Interest rates, sterling, oil, markets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Business confidence rises amid uncertainty
Business confidence in Britain saw a slight increase last month, driven by expectations of further rate cuts, according to BDO’s Optimism Index, which rose to 100.42. This marks the fifth consecutive month above 100 points, up from 100.33 in August. However, the BDO Output Index fell to 98.19, reflecting struggles in the manufacturing and services sectors, particularly due to supply chain disruptions. Despite this, optimism was bolstered by increased domestic demand in technology, real estate, and leisure sectors. Meanwhile, HSBC’s latest annual capital expenditure report revealed that 81% of tech businesses anticipate growth this year, largely due to the artificial intelligence boom. Overall, 55% of UK businesses are optimistic about growth, a 9% increase from last year, with many aiming for significant expansion.
Reeves promises guardrails around borrowing
Rachel Reeves says she will introduce “guardrails” to ensure that extra borrowing for investment in the Budget is not excessive. The Chancellor said: “It’s about making prudent, sensible investments in the long term and we need guardrails around that.” Insisting that the Office for Budget Responsibility and National Audit Office would scrutinise her plans for public investment which would incentivise private investment, she said: “We will make sure that investment genuinely boosts growth and we will look at the role of institutions to demonstrate that.” The Chancellor also insists that there “won’t be a return to austerity,” saying: “The idea of this Budget is to wipe the slate clean and make an honest assessment of spending pressures and tax as well.”
SMEs rally for right to switch off
Recent research by Breathe HR reveals that 85% of small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) leaders support the proposed ‘right to switch off’, allowing employees to disconnect from work outside office hours. The findings, based on a survey of 526 senior leaders, come ahead of the Employment Rights Bill, which includes new rights such as day-one flexibility requests and a four-day workweek. Despite opposition from larger businesses, 68% of SME leaders anticipate that the legislation will boost productivity, while 69% believe it will improve staff retention. However, 61% of SME leaders acknowledge that implementing these changes may increase their workload.
Labour’s new employment rights will benefit over 7m workers
Labour is to set out details of its Employment Rights Bill on Thursday with new rules on sick pay, maternity pay and protection against unfair dismissal giving new rights to 7.4m workers. The reforms will allow workers to claim sick pay from their first day of illness, a change from the current four-day waiting period, while women will also be able to apply for maternity pay from day one, improving job security. Probation periods will be shortened to six months and staff will get protection against unfair dismissal from their first day. Plans to give staff a formal “right to switch off” have been replaced with a request that companies draw up a code of conduct setting out when bosses are not allowed to contact staff. Anna Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said the new legislation had the potential to weed out ‘unfair’ employment practices but warned of increased cost burdens leading to reduced employment opportunities in the future. Paul Nowak, general secretary of the TUC, said: “The Employment Rights Bill, if delivered in full, will make work better for millions of working people.”
‘Sticky floor’ keeps young women in lower paid roles
Research indicates that young women aged 18 to 30 are increasingly concerned about their financial situations compared to their male counterparts. A survey of around 5,000 young people revealed that 41% of young women believe their financial circumstances have worsened in the past year, while only 27% of young men feel the same. It was also shown that one in four young women are in jobs they do not enjoy. Claire Reindorp, chief executive of Young Women’s Trust, said: “The problem for young women is the sticky floor. [At a young age] they get sorted into retail, care, hospitality and into low pay and they can’t get out of it.” She also highlighted that the gender imbalance in regard to finances comes despite progress in closing the pay gap for older women and more women breaking through glass ceilings at work. Ms Reindorp also pointed to “a significant degree of misogyny,” citing surveys of HR decision-makers which found that some will not hire women because of the “risk of their fertility,” while some believe women are “less suitable to senior management jobs.”
Pay rises hit three-year low
Pay rises for British workers have reached their slowest growth in over three years, with companies reducing hiring amid a cooling labour market. According to the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG, salary growth for permanent staff fell for the third consecutive month in September, marking the weakest level since February 2021. Jon Holt, UK chief executive at KPMG, commented: “The Bank of England will likely be encouraged by this easing in pay pressures, which could strengthen the case for a further cut in interest rates.” The number of job vacancies has also declined for the 11th month in a row, as businesses hesitate to recruit ahead of the upcoming Budget.
Retail discounting drives online sales surge
Retail discounting led to a 4.7% increase in total retail sales in September, and an 11.6% rise in online sales, according to BDO’s high street sales tracker. However, in-store sales only grew by 1.8%, indicating underlying issues. Sophie Michael, head of retail and wholesale at BDO, stated: “The reliance on discounted online sales to drive growth is not only putting huge pressure on retailers’ margins, but it is also a very costly way of doing business.” A British Retail Consortium survey revealed that a third of consumers plan to spend less on clothing in the coming months, while high street footfall remains below pre-pandemic levels. The retail sector faces significant challenges, including high business rates, which account for 7.4% of all business taxes, amounting to £33bn.
Retail giants demand tax relief
The chief executives of major UK retailers, including Stuart Machin of Marks & Spencer and Simon Roberts of Sainsbury’s, have called on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to reduce business rates in the upcoming Budget. In an open letter, over 70 retail leaders argue that the retail sector “pays more than its fair share” of taxes, advocating for a 20% cut to address inequities in the current system. They have highlighted that the tax burden has led to store closures and job losses, adding that this has had a “detrimental socio-economic impact on local communities.” The letter, organised by the British Retail Consortium, reflects ongoing concerns about the business rates system, which has been described as a “tax on growth.” Labour has indicated that it is looking to reform the system to make it “fairer for bricks and mortar businesses.”
London urged to build more data centres
Séamus Dunne, UK and Ireland managing director of Digital Realty, a data centre REIT, says Britain needs to improve its digital infrastructure to make it more competitive. Warning that Europe “is not going fast enough” and falling behind the US and China on technologies such as generative AI, he said: “I really just think for the UK, but particularly London, it’s one of the biggest opportunities I could see happening.” The Government recently recognised data centres as Critical National Infrastructure and has proposed easing planning restrictions to accelerate development.
Budget borrowing plans could increase interest rates
Treasury analysis suggests Rachel Reeves’s plan to massage Britain’s fiscal rules could increase the cost of debt for consumers and businesses. An official modelling exercise indicates a “fiscal loosening” of just 1% of GDP could push up interest rates by 1.25% while every increase in annual borrowing of £25bn could increase rates by between 0.5 and 1.25 percentage points. Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, warned: “If you borrow a lot you are taking more of a risk that interest rates will be higher in response.” However, he added that if increased spending encouraged the private sector to invest then the Bank of England will be less concerned that it is inflationary and that higher interest rates are needed.
Pill urges caution on interest rate cuts
Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, has cautioned against rapid interest rate cuts, stressing the need for a gradual approach to maintain inflation near the Bank’s 2% target. Following Governor Andrew Bailey’s suggestion on Thursday of “more aggressive” cuts to come, Pill told an audience at the Institute for Chartered Accountants for England and Wales: “While further cuts in Bank Rate remain in prospect… it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast.” He expressed concerns about the potential return of inflation, particularly after the recent cost of living crisis, which has adversely affected many households.
Sterling’s strong bull run comes to an end
Sterling is experiencing its worst week of the year, having fallen 1.9% against the dollar, trading around $1.311. This decline follows a strong start to the year, where it outperformed other major currencies. The pound’s drop is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey about potentially more aggressive interest rate cuts.
Markets
On Friday, the FTSE 100 closed flat at 8280.63 (down 1.89) and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.68% at 4954.94. Over in the US the S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 5751.07 and the NASDAQ rose 1.22% to 18137.85.
US non-farm payroll data on Friday showed the US economy added far more jobs than expected last month. Some 254,000 jobs were added in September, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, against expectations for 147,000.
This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.306 and €1.1915. On Commodities, Oil (Brent) is at $79.70 & Gold is at $2656. On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is currently up 0.34% at 8309 and the Eurostoxx 50 is flat at 4953.
Oil prices rise amid fears of supply disruption
Escalating conflict in the Middle East has ignited fears of disruption to oil exports from the region, pushing up the price of crude to $78.05 a barrel on Friday, 8% up on a week earlier. Today it is approaching $80. Prior to the Iranian missile attacks on Israel, oil was trading near a two-week low due to weak global demand
House Prices
UK House Prices climbed at the fastest pace in almost two years last month, lender Halifax has reported. A third successive month of increases saw prices jump by 4.7% to an average £293,399, marking the fastest growth since November 2022. This also meant average house prices were around £1,000 off the record set in June 2022.
Labour unveils £22bn investment in ‘unproven’ green technology
The UK Government has announced a significant £22bn funding package for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in the North West, Teesside, and the Humber. The funding will support three major projects, including a gas-fired power station and a waste-burning facility, with the aim of capturing up to 8.5Mt of CO2 annually. Oil and gas giants BP and Equinor will be among the firms providing private sector funding for the projects. However, critics argue that CCS technology remains unproven, costly, and simply extends the life of oil and gas production. The funding model will resemble that of offshore wind subsidies, with additional private sector investment expected. Writing in the Guardian, Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, defends the £22bn outlay, saying: “We are working hand in hand with business to invest in the industries that are crucial to Britain’s future success – like clean energy and much more beyond.”
Labour plans new investment agency
The UK Government is set to unveil a revamped Office for Investment ahead of the International Investment Summit on 14 October. This initiative aims to enhance the country’s appeal for inward investment, with plans to merge the Office for Investment with other Whitehall units to create a more robust agency, potentially named ‘InvestUK’. The summit is expected to attract significant attention, with over 150 business leaders and financiers in attendance, including notable figures like Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock. A government spokesperson stated: “The whole of government is focused on delivering growth and investment across the country.” The event aims to showcase the UK as “open for business” and is anticipated to herald substantial investment in the economy.
Taxpayers rush to confess errors
The number of taxpayers voluntarily disclosing errors to HMRC has surged, doubling from 9,695 in 2020-21 to 19,885 in the 2023-24 tax year. Chris Etherington from RSM UK attributes this increase to workers being pushed into higher-rate tax bands due to frozen salary thresholds since 2021. This reduces the CGT threshold and the tax-free savings allowance, complicating people’s tax affairs. Neela Chauhan from UHY Hacker Young agreed, adding: “It’s always safer to admit it to HMRC rather than hope it won’t notice.” With the complexity of the tax system increasing, experts recommend timely disclosures to avoid penalties, which can reach up to 200% for undeclared offshore income.
Construction sector enjoys growth surge
The UK’s construction sector has achieved its fastest growth in over two years, with the S&P Global construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rising to 57.2 in September, up from 53.6 in August. Commenting on the figures, Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “UK construction companies indicated a decisive improvement in output growth momentum during September, driven by faster upturns across all three major categories of activity. A combination of lower interest rates, domestic economic stability and strong pipelines of infrastructure work have helped to boost order books in recent months.”
US job market defies high interest rates
Recent data indicates that American employers added 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations and easing concerns about a weakening labour market. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in August. The Labour Department also revised job growth estimates for July and August upwards by 72,000. Despite high interest rates, businesses continue to hire, with diverse job gains across sectors.
Barratt & Redrow
Barratt Developments £2.5 billion takeover of Redrow has been given the final go ahead by regulators in the UK. Britain’s Competition and Markets Authority confirmed on Friday that a phase two investigation of the merger would not be launched and the deal could finally go ahead.
Royal Mail
Royal Mail has unveiled plans to recruit 16,000 temporary workers as it braces for the busier Christmas period. New roles will be added at 37 mail centres, alongside two parcel and five seasonal sorting hubs, alongside stretching to delivery and collection offices.
Private schools lose 10,000 pupils ahead of Labour’s VAT raid
The number of students attending private schools fell by 10,000 last month in advance of Labour’s VAT raid. According to the Independent Schools Council, educating these pupils in the state sector will cost the taxpayer £92.8m. Julie Robinson, chief executive at the ISC, said: “This is just the tip of the iceberg and the knock-on effect on schools is significant, with many small schools already at risk of closure.”
Pressure mounts on politicians to pay tax on gifts
Campaigners are urging for stricter laws requiring MPs to pay tax on gifts, particularly following revelations that Sir Keir Starmer received clothing worth over £32,000 from Labour peer Lord Alli. Former Defence Secretary Sir Gavin Williamson has questioned whether such gifts should be considered taxable benefits, while Claire Aston, director of TaxWatch, stressed the importance of politicians declaring and paying tax on gifts to ensure consistency and avoid confusion. While the Government believes no tax is owed, the controversy has overshadowed Labour’s recent conference. Matt Crawford from Blick Rothenberg suggested that any gift related to professional activities should be taxable, advocating for a sensible threshold. David Portman from Lubbock Fine noted the ambiguous tax status of gifts, highlighting the need for clearer rules.
Chancellor urged to end panic over pension tax raid
Wealth managers and investment platforms warn that savers are rushing to pull money from pensions ahead of the Budget amid fears of a tax raid on tax-free withdrawals. Current rules allow savers aged 55 and over to withdraw 25% of any pension in a tax-free lump sum, up to a maximum of £286,275. But The Chancellor is under pressure from left-wing think tanks to reduce the maximum to £100,000, which would affect about one in five retirees. Steven Levin, chief executive of Quilter, has written to the Treasury urging Rachel Reeves to end the panic by providing clarity for those trying to plan their financial futures. AJ Bell has also issued a warning to the Treasury stating that those making decisions on their pensions based on speculation and uncertainty could be left worse off in the long run.
Pensions crisis looms for millions
Experts warn of a looming pensions crisis, with 2.7m people expected to retire with inadequate savings by the 2040s. Research from Phoenix indicates that 59% of defined contribution savers will fall short, particularly affecting those born in the 1970s, many of whom are women earning below £20,000. Patrick Thomson, head of research analysis and policy at Phoenix Insights, stressed the urgent need for action, suggesting that ministers should consider increasing minimum auto-enrolment contribution rates and facilitating work opportunities for those over 60.
Changes in state pension age prompts people to work longer
Recent research indicates that changes to the state pension age are leading many to delay retirement, with record numbers of individuals working longer. Alistair McQueen, Aviva’s head of saving and retirement, noted: “The average age of exit from the labour market has hit a new high, since recent records began in 1984.” Currently, men are retiring at an average age of 65.7 and women at 64.5. The state pension age is set to rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028, further encouraging this trend. McQueen highlighted that working longer can significantly enhance retirement savings, stating: “One of the most powerful levers we can pull to fund our longer lives in retirement is to work longer.”
TGI Fridays close to rescue deal
A rescue deal for the UK arm of TGI Fridays could soon be finalised, with private equity firms Breal Capital and Calveton reportedly close to buying 55 of the chain’s 87 UK restaurants. The potential deal, which is likely to include existing leases and the right to use the TGI Fridays brand in the UK, could save more than 2,000 jobs. Calveton and Breal Capital already own restaurants including Le Pont de la Tour, Quaglino’s and Coq d’Argent through the D&D London brand. TGI Fridays parent company, Hostmore, appointed Teneo as administrators last month, having failed to turn around the chain’s fortunes.
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Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
- Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
- Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!
And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.