Business news 9 December 2024
Sluggish growth, confidence collapse, EU trade reset, tax office late payment bonanza, small businesses struggle to grow and miss out on funding, tax and employment law threats, sick pay, rates, farmers, house prices, markets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
UK economy faces sluggish growth
The UK economy is projected to experience slower growth than previously anticipated, with the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) forecasting a mere 1.5% increase in 2025, down from 1.9% predicted earlier. This downgrade is attributed to the impact of the Chancellor’s recent Budget, which has introduced higher employment costs and £70bn in additional public sector spending, potentially stifling private investment. Louise Hellem, CBI’s chief economist, stated: “The Government’s focus on stability is welcomed by businesses… but there is work to be done to get momentum back into the economy.” The CBI also anticipates a decline in business investment by £6bn in 2026, primarily due to government spending. Overall, the outlook remains cautious as firms grapple with rising costs and pressures on profit margins.
UK business confidence collapses
UK business confidence has reached its lowest point in nearly two years, according to the latest Business Trends Report by BDO. The BDO optimism index fell by 5.81 points to 93.49 in November, marking the steepest month-on-month decline since 2021. Firms are grappling with rising costs, reduced customer confidence, and falling orders, leading to a potential economic contraction. Kaley Crossthwaite, partner at BDO, said: “The drop in business confidence this month is not a surprise given the significant challenges they continue to face.” The report also indicated a decline in employment, reversing previous growth, highlighting ongoing labour market challenges.
Reeves pushes for EU trade reset
At a meeting with EU finance ministers in Brussels today, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will advocate for a more business-like relationship with the European Union to enhance Britain’s growth prospects. She will point to the need for a relationship “built on trust, mutual respect, and pragmatism,” aiming to move past the “fractious” dealings of the previous government. Reeves will focus on joint challenges, including the war in Ukraine, and the importance of free trade to improve economic competitiveness. She will add that a closer economic relationship is beneficial for both the UK and the EU: “It’s about improving both our growth prospects.” The Government plans to publish a trade strategy in 2025 to identify areas for cooperation, despite maintaining that there will be no return to the single market or customs union.
Tax office rakes in £916m from late payments
HM Revenue & Customs has collected £916m from interest on late tax payments since the pandemic, with figures showing a significant increase from £113m in 2020-21 to £414m in 2023-24. Chris Etherington from RSM UK said: “Charging taxpayers an interest rate which is tagged to the base rate, with extra on top, has proved very lucrative for the Treasury.” The rise in interest rates and the freeze on income tax thresholds have pushed more individuals into higher tax bands, necessitating tax returns. The late payment interest rate is currently 7.25%, expected to rise to 8.75% next year, potentially generating an additional £1.2bn for HMRC by 2029-30. Taxpayers are advised to contact HMRC if they struggle to pay their bills, as they may qualify for a Time to Pay plan.
Sober celebrations take over Christmas parties
In a significant cultural shift, many companies are replacing traditional boozy Christmas parties with sober alternatives like crazy golf and ping-pong tournaments. Over 21% of office parties are now completely alcohol-free, reflecting a growing demand from Gen Z workers for healthier celebrations. The change is also influenced by the new Worker Protection Act 2023, which requires employers to take steps to prevent sexual harassment at work events. While some experts caution that simply removing alcohol won’t eliminate risks, the trend towards sober celebrations is gaining momentum as firms seek to create a more inclusive and safe environment.
Support small businesses this December
Small Business Saturday UK aims to enhance consumer engagement with local shops during the festive season. According to Michelle Ovens, director of Small Business Saturday UK: “Small businesses deliver an immeasurable value that goes beyond their economic contribution.” With an estimated £20bn expected to be spent over the festive quarter, 86% of surveyed consumers recognise the importance of shopping local. This year, 22% of Christmas spending is anticipated to go to independent firms, potentially generating £4.4bn for the small business community. However, public support is deemed “absolutely vital” for boosting confidence amid economic challenges, as highlighted by Simon Henry of York Gin, who emphasised the importance of collaboration among small businesses.
Small firms struggle to meet demand
Research by HSBC reveals that two-thirds of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are unable to grow to meet customer demand in 2024, with 69% expecting similar challenges in 2025. The survey highlights that rising business costs and difficulties in accessing finance are significant barriers. Martin McTague, national chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, said: “At the moment, it’s far from smooth sailing for many small businesses who are facing rising costs, difficulties accessing finance and cashflow issues.” Additionally, nearly a quarter of SMEs lack the resilience to survive financial shocks, with 53% holding less than £50,000 in cash reserves. Tom Wood, HSBC UK’s head of business banking, noted the importance of building resilience while increasing profits to meet demand.
Small businesses miss out on funding
The Government’s bank referral scheme, aimed at improving access to finance for small businesses, is facing criticism for its ineffectiveness. According to Funding Xchange, one of the platforms involved, “94% of businesses referred by banks failed to secure finance” due to being deemed “not fundable.” Since its launch in November 2016, the scheme has facilitated only 5,387 deals worth approximately £128m, with an average deal size of £24,000. The analysis revealed that many businesses have “readily fixable” issues that could improve their chances of securing funding. The Treasury acknowledged that the proportion of businesses benefiting from the scheme has been “smaller than expected,” highlighting the need for better support and advice for small business owners.
Tax increases threaten local shops
High streets are set to be “ravaged” following Labour’s tax changes, which could cost small businesses an additional £32,000 annually. Rachel Reeves’ Budget includes increased employer’s National Insurance and reduced business rates relief, significantly impacting family firms. Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary, described the situation as a “triple whammy” leading to a potential “January of discontent.” He warned that many small businesses may close or sell due to the financial strain, stating: “They’ll sell up or close down, and we will lose some of the most-loved businesses that give our communities their character.” The Confederation of British Industry has estimated that these changes could result in a £9.4bn hit to economic output.
Rural pubs face closure crisis
Concerns are mounting over the future of village pubs following recent tax hikes in Rachel Reeves’ Budget. Owners and campaigners warn that these changes could lead to closures, with Katie Perry-Evans, who runs the Hungry Ram gastropub, saying: “The recent Budget was nothing less than a kick in the guts for small businesses.”
Business rates revenue skyrockets
Business rates are projected to generate £220bn over six years, with £40bn expected in the 2029-30 year alone, surpassing fuel duty and capital gains tax, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Despite extending relief for the retail, leisure, and hospitality sectors, the Government plans to implement a ‘permanent’ cut for these sectors, funded by a higher levy on larger properties valued over £500,000. Critics, including John Webber from Colliers, argue this approach unfairly penalises larger retailers, stating: “What they’re also doing is capturing any High Street retailer who has got a big shed.” The reduction in relief from 75% to 40% raises concerns for small businesses, with fears that many may struggle to survive before the new system is introduced in 2026-27.
Chancellor’s Budget sparked job cuts
Data from Employment Hero’s SmartMatch Salary Report indicates a significant reaction from employers following the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget, with many cutting staff. Rachel Reeves’s £25bn National Insurance increase, set to take effect in April, has drawn criticism from businesses, which will face a 1.2% rise in costs per employee. The report highlights a 1.2% contraction in full-time employment in November, particularly affecting younger workers, with a notable 4.8% drop in full-time jobs for those aged 18-24. Kevin Fitzgerald, UK managing director of Employment Hero, stated: “These figures show the disastrous decision to tax employment is already costing jobs,” urging the Government to reconsider its policy to prevent long-term damage to employment, especially for young people entering the workforce.
Job market gloom as demand dips
The demand for staff has reached its lowest point in four years, as the Budget tax increases cast a shadow over the pre-Christmas jobs market, according to the latest report from KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation. The vacancies index dropped from 46.1 to 43.9, indicating the sharpest contraction in job openings since August 2020. Jon Holt, group chief executive at KPMG, noted that businesses are “having to weigh up the prospect of increasing employee costs,” leading to a slowdown in hiring. Seasonal recruitment has also suffered, with postings for seasonal roles down 39% compared to last year. Despite more jobseekers looking for short-term work, overall job postings remain 14% below pre-pandemic levels. Retail hiring has declined significantly, with major chains like Tesco and Sainsbury’s planning to hire fewer temporary staff than in previous years.
Union leaders demand sick pay boost
Ministers are under pressure to increase statutory sick pay (SSP) as 24 union leaders have urged Sir Keir Starmer to fulfil a promise to enhance payments. The current SSP is set to rise by £2 to £118.75 a week in April, but unions are advocating for further upgrades through the Employment Rights Bill, which aims to improve sick pay eligibility. The TUC has stated that the current SSP level is inadequate, being only around 20% of average earnings, one of the lowest in Europe. However, Shazia Ejaz from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation warned that expanding SSP could disproportionately burden small businesses already facing rising costs.
Extra sick pay costs a risk for staff
Labour’s employment rights overhaul could force employers to sack sick staff if they are repeatedly ill or are off sick for long periods. According to the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), new statutory sick pay (SSP) rules will push up costs for businesses already under strain from minimum wage hikes and an increase in NICs for employers. Shazia Ejaz at the REC said: “We urge the Government to set the rate of SSP at a level that encourages employers to retain staff, rather than having to move swiftly to capability-based dismissal.” She added that 60% of the cost burden from the new rules will fall on small businesses while agency workers would be particularly hard hit by the plans, proposed by Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner. Meanwhile, the Regulatory Policy Committee, an independent government body, has said Labour’s workers’ rights package was “not fit for purpose” and ministers had failed to properly assess how the extra costs would be passed on to employees. The Government’s own impact assessment estimates the changes will cost businesses at least £4.5bn a year.
DWP plans to give long-term sick ‘job protection’
The UK Government has introduced a new initiative aimed at protecting long-term sick employees from job loss. Under the Connect to Work scheme, employers are encouraged to notify local employment services if a staff member’s health affects their work. This programme will provide four or more months of specialist support to help these individuals retain their jobs. Work and Pensions Secretary has stated that the initiative is designed to assist those “at risk of losing their jobs” and to offer a more integrated approach to health and employment. He emphasised the need for a comprehensive service that addresses the intertwined issues of health and work, stating: “This will create more chances to intervene and help people start and stay in work.” The scheme is expected to cost around £115m and aims to tackle the growing number of economically inactive individuals in the UK, which currently stands at over nine million.
Markets
On Friday, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.49% at 8308.61 and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.53% at 4977.78. Over in the US the S&P 500 rose 0.25% to 6090.27 and the NASDAQ rose 0.81% to 19859.77.
The latest snapshot of the US labor market showed they added 227k jobs (above estimates of 220k) and nudged the Federal Reserve closer to lowering interest rates later this month, but it wasnt quite enough to stop traders holding off ahead of a key inflation report due this week.
Chinese stock markets surged and the yuan gained after China said it plans to loosen monetary policy and expand fiscal spending. Beijing is preparing for a trade war when Donald Trump takes up his post.
This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.278 and €1.208. On Commodities, Oil (Brent) is at $71.95 & Gold is at $2657. On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is currently up 0.32% at 8334.81 and the Eurostoxx 50 is up 0.07% at 4981.
New tax rules for online sellers
Starting January 2025, new legislation will impact online vendors and landlords using platforms like eBay, Vinted, and Airbnb. HMRC has announced that these platforms will share sales data, although they assert that “absolutely nothing has changed for online sellers.” Angela MacDonald, HMRC’s second permanent secretary, clarified that individuals selling unwanted items occasionally will not owe tax. However, those who sold at least 30 items or earned around £1,700 in 2024 may need to register for Self Assessment. The new reporting requirements aim to ensure compliance without introducing new tax obligations.
MPs to probe farmers inheritance tax change
MPs are set to investigate the implications of the Government’s recent inheritance tax changes on farmers as part of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee’s inquiry into the future of farming. The inquiry will address various issues, including food security and farming profitability. The first evidence session will focus on the changes to Agricultural Property Relief (APR) and Business Property Relief (BPR), which could impose a 20% inheritance tax on assets exceeding £1m. Farmers have expressed concerns that these measures may force them to sell land to cover tax bills. Committee chair Alistair Carmichael said: “Since the announcement in the Budget about the changes to APR, there has been an enormous amount of concern amongst the farming community that the viability and future of their farms are at risk.” The inquiry aims to clarify the number of farms affected and the broader impact on the agricultural sector.
Labour’s tax raid threatens food security
Shadow Environment Secretary Victoria Atkins has raised concerns over Labour’s proposed inheritance tax on agricultural land, warning it could jeopardise Britain’s food security. The proposed 20% tax on land and assets exceeding £1m could force farmers to sell their land, potentially converting it for solar panel use instead of food production. Atkins said: “Food security is national security yet Labour seem to be on a mission to decimate the very businesses that underpin it.” Mo Metcalf-Fisher from the Countryside Alliance echoed these concerns, adding that losing land would increase reliance on foreign markets for food.
House prices soar to new heights
UK house prices have reached record levels, with a notable increase of 1.3% in November, marking the largest rise this year, according to the Halifax House Price Index. The annual growth rate now stands at 4.8%, the highest since 2022, with the average property value in the UK at £298,083. London continues to lead with an average price of £545,439, reflecting a 3.5% increase. Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, stated: “Latest figures continue to show improving levels of demand for mortgages, as an easing in mortgage rates boost buyer confidence.” Despite this positive trend, affordability challenges persist for many potential buyers. The Bank of England’s recent data indicates a rise in mortgage approvals, suggesting sustained buyer demand. Bryden anticipates continued demand into the new year, supported by employment figures and a potential decrease in interest rates.
Labour’s housing dream needs more migrants
To meet Labour’s ambitious target of constructing 1.5m homes by the end of the current parliament, the National Federation of Builders (NFB) asserts that Britain requires hundreds of thousands of additional migrant workers. The construction sector faces a significant skills shortage, exacerbated by an ageing workforce and a decline in apprentices. The NFB has proposed temporary visas lasting three to four years to attract the necessary talent, as the current skilled worker visa scheme has seen limited uptake among construction specialists. Without substantial immigration policy changes, the goal of 1.5m homes is deemed unattainable, with the Centre for Cities warning of a potential shortfall of 388,000 homes.
Insurance mega-merger could prove harmful
The recent merger between Aviva and Direct Line, valued at £3.6bn, is set to create the UK’s second-largest insurance company, with a market value of £16.5bn. Aviva’s chief executive, Amanda Blanc, has described the acquisition as a significant step, but experts warn that while shareholders may benefit, consumers could face higher premiums. The Telegraph’s Matthew Lynn reports that the cost of motor insurance has surged by 82% since May 2021, raising concerns about reduced competition in the market. Additionally, the merger may stifle innovation, as resources are diverted to integration rather than developing new products. Despite substantial investment in insurtech, Lynn says the focus on cost-cutting in mega-mergers could hinder advancements in the industry, leaving consumers and the economy at a disadvantage.
Belfast shipbuilder secures rescue deal
Ministers have approved a rescue deal for Harland & Wolff (H&W), the Belfast-based shipbuilder known for constructing the Titanic. The agreement, involving Spain’s Navantia, is expected to secure over 1,000 jobs in British manufacturing. While the deal is not yet finalised, it is anticipated that Navantia will acquire H&W’s four UK shipyards and renegotiate a contract to build three Fleet Solid Support ships for the Royal Navy. An insider noted that the Government and Navantia had “compromised” on a £300m improvement in the contract’s value. This development comes after H&W’s administration following a rejected plea for taxpayer support. A final agreement is likely to include job guarantees from Navantia, providing a positive outlook for the shipbuilding industry ahead of Christmas.
Latest Insolvencies
Appointment of Liquidators – GARRIOCK-RANKIN LTD.
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – THE GARDENERS COTTAGE LTD
Winding up Order (Companies) – CARRISBROOKE LIMITED
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Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
- Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
- Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!
And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.