Business news 17 February 2025
Business confidence hits rock bottom. Rising costs threaten business investment. Tax, jobs, tariffs, markets, insolvencies & tonnes more business news from over the weekend that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Business confidence hits rock bottom
Business confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since the pandemic, with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) reporting a drop to -64.5 in its confidence metric for the last quarter of 2024. The decline, a significant 40.1 points from the previous quarter, reflects widespread concern across all sectors, particularly in accommodation and food services, which fell to -111.0 points. Tina McKenzie from the FSB said: “The upcoming Employment Rights Bill is a major source of stress for small firms.”
Rising costs threaten business investment
As UK businesses prepare for significant cost increases due to national insurance and minimum wage hikes in April, the challenge of securing investment has become increasingly daunting. Joanna Jensen, an entrepreneur and chair of the Enterprise Investment Scheme Association, highlights that “growth is achieved through investment,” urging the Government to enhance incentives and reduce red tape. The British Business Bank (BBB) has £8bn to invest, yet many SMEs struggle to find private investors, stalling growth. The Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) offers potential solutions, but its outdated limits hinder investment. Jensen advocates for changes to EIS regulations to attract more funding, emphasising the need for immediate action to support UK businesses.
Tax hikes limit growth and risk a ‘doom loop’
Recent data reveals that the UK economy is experiencing sluggish growth, with a mere 0.1% rise in GDP in the last quarter of 2023, leading to a forecast of only 0.9% growth for 2024. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is revising its forecasts, indicating a potential increase in the tax burden to 36.4% of GDP this year, the highest since 1950. David Smith in the Sunday Times says the economy is at risk of entering a “doom loop” where weak growth necessitates further tax hikes. Despite some optimism from forecasters, the overall outlook remains bleak, with the Chancellor facing pressure to maintain fiscal rules without introducing new tax increases.
Job losses loom as tax raid hits
Workers are facing significant job losses as companies prepare to make redundancies in response to Rachel Reeves’s £25bn tax raid. A survey by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) indicates that a quarter of businesses plan to cut jobs, the highest level in a decade, excluding the pandemic. Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary, said: “This latest research joins a pattern of reports all demonstrating that business confidence is on the floor.” Retail and hospitality sectors are expected to be the hardest hit as the National Insurance rate rises from 13.8% to 15%.
Office attendance is becoming a performance metric
The FT reports on how companies are tightening return-to-office mandates, linking attendance to performance reviews and bonuses, risking employee attrition, especially among high performers and those valuing flexibility.
Government simplifies buying processes to benefit small firms
Thousands of small businesses across the country will have more opportunities to win valuable contracts with public sector organisations after the Government simplified procurement rules. Alongside measures for small business, companies that win public sector contracts will be told to advertise vacancies at local job centres to boost local growth. Changes announced in the National Procurement Policy Statement (NPPS) will give businesses greater opportunity to access the £400bn spent on public procurement every year, investing in home grown talent and driving innovation and growth, said Georgia Gould, Parliamentary Secretary at the Cabinet Office.
Chancellor’s tax break could change lives
The Chancellor has the opportunity to significantly impact the lives of nearly 1m young people not engaged in education, work, or training by implementing a tax break for businesses that hire them, according to the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ). This initiative could potentially increase Treasury revenues by up to £23bn over five years, as new workers contribute taxes and reduce welfare costs. CSJ policy director Ed Davies said: “It is intolerable to pretend there isn’t a problem,” stressing the need for serious action to address youth unemployment. The proposal suggests a 40% tax break for hiring jobless individuals aged 16 to 24, with the expectation that for every £1 lost in tax rebates, the Treasury could gain £4.76 in return over five years. The scheme would require participants to have a British passport or pass a residency test to prevent misuse.
Labour bounced into action by Trump tariffs
US President Donald Trump’s plans to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports has prompted the UK Government to put forward plans for a £2.5bn investment in the UK steel industry. The business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, will today publish a green paper aimed at strengthening the industry. Ministers intend to turbocharge decisions on how state funds can be used to co-finance innovative projects led by the private sector. Reynolds said: “The UK steel industry has a long-term future under this government. We said that during the election, and we are delivering on it now.” Elsewhere, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Bloomberg that the EU is strong enough to counter any US tariff threats but that he hopes for a negotiated agreement that can avoid a trade war.
US import rules threaten UK sellers
UK independent sellers on platforms like eBay and Amazon may face severe repercussions from new US import rules. The regulations, which came into effect at the start of February, impose import duties of up to 15% on fashion items from China, alongside a 10% tariff. Brad Ashton from RSM said: “It’s creating a perfect storm for online retailers putting goods into the US market.” The changes aim to protect US retailers from competition but could inflate prices for consumers and diminish sales for UK businesses. The de minimis exemption for parcels under $800 is being revoked, affecting many UK brands reliant on Chinese manufacturing. Asos and Boohoo, which sell around £300m of clothing annually to the US, may struggle to compete, with analysts suggesting they will need to adjust pricing strategies.
UK film industry gets major boost
The Labour Government has announced significant tax incentives for the UK film industry, offering a 40% business rate cut for filmmakers that will last until 2034. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said: “The UK’s film industry is truly world class…The sector has huge potential for further economic growth and the Government is ambitious for its future.” The creative industry, which employs over 2.4m people and contributes £120bn to the economy, is set to benefit from these measures, including additional funding for a new film studio in Sunderland. Industry leaders, such as Simon Robinson from Warner Bros. and Sara Putt from BAFTA, welcomed the announcement, stressing its potential to create jobs and support local talent.
Action needed on funding, AI training, and tax relief
A new report from Goldman Sachs reveals that small firms in the UK want the Government to prioritise easier access to funding, subsidised AI training, and create a more SME-friendly tax system as part of its economic growth strategy. The report also suggests the creation of a national investment summit to connect small businesses with funding providers and an SME infrastructure taskforce to ensure business’s concerns are heard in Whitehall.
AI helping start-ups cut costs
Start-ups are increasingly leveraging AI while reducing their workforce to manage costs, resulting in a significant decline in insolvencies within the small business sector. Research by PwC indicates that start-ups accounted for 46% of company insolvencies in 2024, a decrease from 60% a decade ago. John Baker, start-up specialist at PwC UK, commented: “Many have been able to embrace advanced technologies at speed, such as GenAI, to drive efficiencies and offset rising costs.” Despite challenges such as rising interest rates and increased national insurance contributions, start-ups are demonstrating resilience by quickly adapting to changing market conditions. However, they continue to face hurdles, including a shortage of venture capital funding.
UK’s chemical industry on the brink
High energy costs are pushing Britain’s chemicals industry to breaking point, ministers have been warned, after hundreds of jobs at two factories were plunged into doubt. The Chemical Industries Association lobby group has written to Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds warning that plant closures were “inevitable” unless the UK became more competitive. The last ammonia factory in Britain was closed by Yara, the Norwegian chemicals giant, last week and then on Friday, American chemicals giant Dow confirmed that its plant in Barry, Wales, was under threat of being scaled back.
Risk aversion holding Britain back
Former HSBC boss and the head of Labour’s National Wealth Fund John Flint tells Bloomberg that Britain is too risk-averse with regulators too overbearing, financial institutions too cautious and society at large too timid. “The growth outcomes here are entirely consistent with our risk appetite,” Flint said. “So I don’t think we should be surprised we’re not growing. We’re not taking enough risks to grow.” Labour is attempting to spur growth by cutting regulations, but Flint believes the private sector is “being very selective about the role that it plays” in driving growth. Ultimately, a new approach to risk can work well for Britain as its underlying economy is sound.
UK housing market debt falls as older generations pay off mortgages
Research by Savills reveals the collective loan-to-value of the UK’s privately owned housing dropped from 23.5% in 2014 to 19.4% last year, with the total value of homes in the UK topping £9trn for the first time.
Self-employed workers demand mortgage fairness
The self-employed workforce in the UK, holding nearly £82bn in disposable income, faces significant challenges in securing mortgages. A recent analysis by Together reveals that 87% of self-employed individuals believe it is “much harder” to obtain a home loan due to their employment status. Despite having an average deposit of £51,000, many encounter barriers stemming from financial prejudices and a lack of understanding from mainstream banks. Ryan Etchells, chief commercial officer at Together, said: “The country’s self-employed workers are crying out for lenders to support their home-owning ambitions.” With the self-employed market comprising 4.4m individuals, there is a pressing need for banks to adopt a more flexible approach to mortgage lending to support this demographic and stimulate the housing market.
Mortgage lending growth to double
According to a report from EY Item Club, mortgage lending in the UK is projected to grow by 3.1% this year, up from 1.5% last year. This growth is largely attributed to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, which recently lowered rates to 4.5%. Martina Keane, EY UK and Ireland financial services leader, said: “The UK’s gradual economic recovery is strengthening confidence and translating into more appetite to borrow from UK banks.” Additionally, strong income growth and low unemployment are expected to support mortgage demand. However, Keane cautioned about potential risks, including geopolitical tensions and upcoming UK tax rises, which could impact lending growth. Overall, total UK bank lending growth is forecast to rise to 3.7% this year.
Markets
On Friday, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.22% at 8745.30 due to declines in a few big names with significant US dollar exposure as the pound rose against the dollar. And the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.34% at 5518.97. Over in the US the S&P 500 closed flat at 6114.63 while the NASDAQ rose 0.41% to 20026.77.
This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.2595 and €1.2015. On Commodities, Oil (Brent) is at $75.1 & Gold is at $2900. On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is currently up 0.25% at 8754 and the Eurostoxx 50 is up 0.22% at 5506.
US Markets are closed today for Presidents day. Attention is on European defence stocks as Trumps moves push Europe to consider increasing its defence spending.
Japan’s GDP grew by an annualised rate of 2.8% in October to December, topping analyst expectations and marking the third consecutive quarter of expansion.
Stealth taxes loom in Spring Statement
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly considering freezing income tax limits beyond the 2028/29 tax year, as the UK economy struggles with a mere 0.1% growth in late 2024. This freeze could push many into higher tax bands due to rising wages, affecting even those just below the tax-free personal allowance, such as pensioners. Despite previously promising no new tax increases, Ms Reeves is expected to announce either public spending cuts or further tax rises in her statement on March 26. An aide mentioned that she is taking “nothing off the table.” The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that maintaining frozen tax thresholds could generate £4bn annually.
London recruitment struggles amid tax hike
London’s recruitment landscape is facing significant challenges as firms prepare for the national insurance hike in April. According to a survey by KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), permanent placements fell for the sixth consecutive month in January, with the index at 42.9, indicating contraction. Anna Purchas, senior partner at KPMG UK, remarked: “It’s been a challenging start to the year for recruitment in London.” The survey highlights employers’ hesitance to invest due to economic uncertainty and the impending changes to workers’ rights. With a growing pool of available staff and fewer roles, pay growth rates are also easing.
Pret A Manger faces winding up petition
Pret A Manger (Europe) is facing a winding up petition from a water company due to unpaid debts, court documents reveal. The filing was made by Castle Water’s lawyers at Addleshaw Goddard, with the Official Receiver involved as a third party. In its latest accounts, Pret A Manger reported a pre-tax loss exceeding £15m, a stark contrast to the £54m profit from the previous year. The company’s financial report indicated that it “will require additional funds, through funding from its parent company… to meet its liabilities.”
Gas discovery could power UK for years
Egdon Resources has claimed a significant natural gas discovery in the Gainsborough Trough, which could meet the UK’s energy needs for seven years. Following an assessment by Deloitte, the company estimates over 16trn cubic feet of gas could be extracted, potentially generating a GDP contribution of £140bn and creating up to 250,000 jobs. Sir Edward Leigh, the Conservative MP for Gainsborough, said: “I’m very excited and I’m not going to dismiss it.” However, concerns about environmental impacts and the political landscape surrounding fossil fuel extraction remain, particularly regarding fracking, which the Labour government has pledged to ban.
Forget the US – Europe has successfully put tariffs on itself
Former ECB President and PM of Italy Mario Draghi writes in the FT that, for Europe, high internal barriers and regulatory hurdles are far more damaging for growth than any tariffs the US might impose.
More questions over Reeves’ expenses
Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, has firmly denied allegations regarding her expenses during her tenure at Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) in the 2000s. Following a BBC expose revealing claims from a whistleblower about her spending on luxury items, Reeves said: “No one ever raised any concerns about my expenses when I worked for Halifax Bank of Scotland.” Despite the internal audit team finding evidence of potential wrongdoing, the investigation did not progress. Reeves has also faced criticism for inconsistencies in her CV, particularly regarding her time at the Bank of England. The Times now reports that Reeves put a bottle of champagne on expenses claiming it for “colleague entertaining and incentives”. But documentation seen by the paper indicates the champagne was never given to her colleague.
Tories call on Lloyds to release Reeves expenses files
Pressure is mounting on Rachel Reeves following allegations regarding her expenses during her tenure at Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS). The Tories have urged Charlie Nunn, chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group, to release a report detailing these claims. Tory frontbencher Mike Wood said: “These serious allegations, which can lead to fraud convictions, concern Reeves’s use of company expenses.” A spokesperson for Reeves claimed that all expenses were properly submitted and signed off, and former colleagues have corroborated her account. Lloyds Banking Group has yet to comment on the matter
Boomers’ wealth transfer hits £5trn
As baby boomers approach their eighties, a significant wealth transfer is underway, with over £5trn expected to be passed down in the next 30 years, according to Abrdn. This trend is driven by concerns over potential tax increases on inheritance, prompting many to gift wealth sooner. Charlie Sosna from Mishcon de Reya noted: “We are certainly seeing a significant increase in clients thinking about how best to pass their wealth down a generation.” Various tax-efficient strategies, such as Junior ISAs and trusts, are being utilised to mitigate inheritance tax (IHT) implications. With changes in tax laws, including the inclusion of pensions in IHT calculations from 2027, families are urged to plan ahead to ensure a smooth transition of assets.
Boomers’ wealth reshapes property landscape
Robert Colville in the Sunday Times reports that the wealth amassed by Britain’s baby boomers, now aged 60 to 80, is unprecedented, with over £2.5trn in property ownership, much of it mortgage-free. He suggests the inheritance from baby boomers will reshape the economy and in turn raise questions about social mobility, housing affordability and capitalism’s future. Colville says the housing market exemplifies the divide between the generations, with home ownership among younger adults plummeting. He points out that as prices have risen to extraordinary multiples of earnings, parents and grandparents have stepped into the breach. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that £17bn is given or lent informally each year “almost all from parents to their adult children”. Colville adds that the children of the rich receive more cash and more frequently: the top 20% of earners get 26 times as much money as the bottom 20%, three times more often. Wealth advisers point out that the gap will widen due to Rachel Reeves’s plan to apply IHT to pensions. They note that elderly clients are already handing down more money, or buying bigger houses, to keep their wealth out of the Chancellor’s grasp.
Bill hikes render pension rise worthless
Analysis by the Telegraph reveals that many retirees will not benefit from the upcoming state pension increase due to significant council tax hikes and the loss of winter fuel payments. The state pension will rise by £472 annually, but in areas like Bradford, where council tax is increasing by 9.99%, up to 85% of this uplift will be negated. Dennis Reed from Silver Voices said: “The triple lock increase coming this April did not take into account the loss of the winter fuel payment… nor did it anticipate this unprecedented hike in council taxes.” The findings highlight a growing concern that pensioners are facing a “cruel double whammy,” as rising costs threaten their living standards.
Conservative treasurer caught in £1m fraud
Malcolm Macaskill, a former Conservative party branch treasurer, has been implicated in a £1m VAT fraud and money laundering scheme. The 65-year-old submitted false VAT returns to HMRC, claiming over £800,000 in repayments by inflating sales from his sandwich businesses, Bigga Bites and Kwik Snax. Additionally, he laundered £200,000 through local Conservative associations in Glasgow and Rutherglen. Despite facing multiple charges, Macaskill was deemed unfit to stand trial due to a brain tumour, leading to an examination of facts hearing at Glasgow Sheriff Court. Sheriff Paul Reid confirmed that the facts against Macaskill had been “established”. The case is set to continue later this year.
Europe scrambles to respond to US and Russia talks
European leaders are struggling to project relevance as the US and Russia head for peace talks in Saudi Arabia, sidelining Ukraine and its continental NATO backers. Europe’s key leadership will meet on Monday in Paris after Emmanuel Macron called an emergency meeting. Sir Keir Starmer will also be there. The UK Prime Minister told the Telegraph he would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine to enforce any peace deal and it is thought his European counterparts are considering similar moves after the US said Europe would have to do more to defend itself. However, talk of a unified European army has been dismissed by Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski. More broadly, the US may be trying to cleave Russia away from China, a move that may push Ukraine and Europe even closer to China.
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Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
- Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
- Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!
And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
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Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!