Business news 22 June 2022
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Inflation. Strikes. Markets. UK now a “hotspot” for international workers. Further rate hikes needed to tame inflation. And more business news.
Inflation
UK CPI the broad inflation measure has risen 9.1% in the 12 months to end May 2022 its highest rate of increase since February 1982.
Strikes
UK RMT union has resumed talks with Network Rail ahead of planned train strikes on Thursday and Saturday. While teachers and postal workers have warned of potential industrial action if their pay doesn’t track inflation
The first of three strikes by the RMT union over cuts to jobs, conditions, real-terms pay and pensions left just one in five trains running on Tuesday. The RMT and railway employers are due to hold fresh talks on Wednesday aimed at resolving the dispute. But more strikes are scheduled for Thursday and Saturday. The Prime Minister said the strikes were “wrong and unnecessary” as he urged the country to “stay the course” and push on for reforms to the rail service, arguing that the sector must modernise or “go bust”. Rail bosses are calling on unions to accept almost 2,000 job losses and for the scrapping of outdated working practices, which include requiring a team of nine workers to change a plug socket.
Meanwhile, the Communication Workers Union (CWU) has said it will stand in support of rail workers and promised a ballot for strike action next month, setting the scene for a general strike in August.
US Markets
Overnight, DOW rose 2.15%. S&P 500 rose 2.45%. NASDAQ rose 2.51%.
UK now a “hotspot” for international workers
A new survey by jobs website Indeed has found that the UK is the most attractive country for foreign job hunters among Europe’s major economies, with a jump in the number of highly skilled workers applying for jobs. The improvement in the UK’s score comes despite a fall in applications from EU-based workers following the introduction of tougher post-Brexit immigration rules. Pawel Adrjan, head of Europe research at Indeed, said: “Our analysis suggests that non-European jobseekers are likely to be more highly skilled and therefore interested in higher paying jobs, compared to lower skilled roles European workers had previously taken. This could be a sign that the UK Government’s post-Brexit immigration policy is operating as intended, with new sources of global immigration of greatest benefit to employers hiring for higher skilled positions in sectors like IT, engineering and finance.”
Further rate hikes needed to tame inflation
The Bank of England’s chief economist, Huw Pill, told an Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales event on Tuesday that a further tightening of monetary policy will be required to tame inflation, which has climbed to a 40-year high of 9% and is expected to peak at just over 11% in October. However, he appeared to reject a suggestion from fellow MPC member Catherine Mann, who said on Monday that the Bank should raise rates to strengthen the pound, arguing that although Threadneedle Street should be aware of “developments in the exchange rate” it did not have an exchange rate target, or a target for real incomes, but it did have a target for inflation. Sterling has fallen almost 10% this year, making imports more expensive. Mr Pill said: “I worry that thinking that we can use that very blunt tool to do many things…. can distract us from the task we’ve been given to do and end up meaning that we are much less effective in achieving that task.” Ms Mann was one of three ‘hawks’ in the MPC who voted to increase the Bank Rate half a percentage point to 1.5% at last week’s meeting. Mr Pill was one of the doves who backed a 0.25pp increase but has said that he would support faster rises if there were signs of a sustained inflationary pressures through wage increases or firms pushing up prices.
Sunak to meet oil groups protesting against windfall tax
The Chancellor looks set to meet North Sea oil and gas producers on a trip to Aberdeen on Thursday, as officials indicate any windfall tax is unlikely to extend to electricity generators. The Government announced a 25% windfall tax on oil and gas producers in order to raise funds for a program to help people pay their soaring energy bills. But companies such as BP said the move would force it to reappraise its investment plans, while Shell criticised the measure for creating uncertainty.
Insurers call for expansion of ‘auto-enrolment’ scheme
The Association of British Insurers (ABI) has called on the Government to expand its pensions “auto-enrolment” scheme. A report from the trade body proposed reducing the earnings threshold, which currently stands at £10,000, and accelerating plans to lower the minimum enrolment age from 22 to 18. The ABI also recommended gradually increasing the minimum contribution rates from 8% to 12% over the next decade. Hannah Gurga, Director General at the ABI said: “Automatic enrolment has transformed workplace pension savings in this country. But the challenge remains to ensure people are saving enough for their retirement. For the next 10 years, we need a detailed plan for getting to higher contributions.” The ABI has also called for the Government to allow people to dip into their pension pots before they reach retirement age if they are suffering financial hardship. Under current rules, withdrawals before the age of 55 count as unauthorised payments and typically result in a 55% tax charge.
State pension and benefits set to rise in line with inflation
The Treasury has confirmed that the pension “triple lock” will apply for the state pension next year after it was put on pause during the pandemic. The move will take the annual payout for retirees beyond £10,000 for the first time. Universal Credit will also be uprated by this September’s consumer prices index, Simon Clarke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury told the Commons on Tuesday. With inflation expected to be in double digits by then, the two decisions are expected to cost taxpayers as much as £20bn. Observers argued that the policy contradicted the Government’s line that pay rises should not track soaring price rises as this would cause an inflationary spiral. Jonathan Cribb, associate director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the policy is “unsustainable in the long run” while a Whitehall source told the Telegraph: “I think this sounds bonkers. If you are going to stick to the line on inflation, you have to show restraint across the board.”
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