Business news 24 March 2025
Some of the business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Please note: on the 19/3/25 CPA moved after 45 years on King Street, to new offices a couple of miles down the road at Profile West, 950 Great West Road, Brentford, TW8 9ES.
Brexit trade losses hit £37bn
New figures reveal that Brexit has cost UK businesses £37bn annually, with total trade with the EU down by 5% compared to pre-Brexit levels. The House of Commons library analysis highlights that the drop in trade is detrimental, particularly for SMEs, and calls for the Government to consider rejoining the Customs Union and Single Market. Tom Brufatto from Best for Britain says that deeper alignment with the EU could boost the UK economy by up to 2.2%. Reflecting on the report, Trade Minister Douglas Alexander said: “This is an appalling loss of trade at a time when business and the Exchequer can ill afford it.”
UK could rethink big tech tax to avoid US tariffs
Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the Government could overhaul the digital services tax (DST) to avert further tariffs from the US, saying: “We need to get the balance right.” Ms Reeves told BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg: “We want to make progress. We do not want to see British exporters subject to higher tariffs.” The Chancellor added: “It’s right that companies who operate in the UK pay their taxes in the UK, and the US Government and tech companies understand that as well.” Lord Mandelson, Britain’s ambassador to the US, said the tax itself “is under discussion,” suggesting there are several options available beyond scrapping it. Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey criticised talk of reducing the tax, saying: “Changing the UK’s tax policy to appease Donald Trump and Elon Musk is a dangerous path.” On the possibility of a cut to the DST, a Treasury spokesman said: “All taxes are kept under review and the 2025 review of the digital services tax has been planned since it was implemented in 2020 – so it would be wrong to imply any intention to repeal the tax from this.” The DST, a 2% levy which targets global tech giants like Meta, Google and Amazon, has raised around £800m a year since its introduction in 2020. The Liberal Democrats have called for the levy to be increased to 6%.
All UK families ‘to be worse off by 2030’
Living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030, according to analysis by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), with those on the lowest incomes seeing standards decline twice as fast as middle and high earners. The JRF report says that while the average family will be £1,400 worse off by 2030, representing a 3% fall in their disposable incomes, the lowest income households will be £900 a year worse off, marking a 6% fall. The analysis also suggests that the average mortgage holder is set to pay about £1,400 more in interest per year in 2030 than in 2025, while the average renter will pay about £300 more in rent a year. Average earnings, meanwhile, are set to fall by £700 a year. Alfie Stirling, director of insight and policy at JRF, believes that “fiscal pressures should be met through tax reform.” He suggested that there are “a number of options to raise revenue from those with the broadest shoulders, while also supporting growth by removing perverse incentives in the tax system.”
Tariffs
Donald Trump’s 2nd April tariff announcement is expected to be more targeted than the wide ranging tariffs he previously threatened. The reciprocal tariffs will exclude some nations and blocs and as of now Trump isn’t planning separate, additional, sector-specific tariffs. Stock markets rose on the speculation that the levies could be more measured than previously feared.
Spending cuts on the cards, analysts warn
While analysts expect Chancellor Rachel Reeves to announce significant spending cuts of up to £15bn in the Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is likely to adopt a cautious stance regarding the anticipated savings. With the OBR expected to cut growth forecasts for 2025 to around 1%, Sanjay Raja, a UK economist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the OBR will likely estimate savings of less than £15bn, leaving Ms Reeves with approximately £12bn to meet her fiscal targets. Research by Bloomberg Economics suggests that ministers could face a £45bn ‘fiscal hole’ if sluggish productivity growth continues, while economists at investment bank Investec say the Chancellor “will be forced to pare back her Budget spending plans by at least £10bn, but we doubt that she will have to make as much as £20bn of savings to meet her rules and to give her a credible amount of headroom.” Meanwhile, former Home Secretary David Blunkett has called on Ms Reeves to “loosen” the Government’s fiscal rules. He told BBC Radio 4’s Week in Westminster he would “raise the self-imposed rule by at least £10bn-15bn.”
Chancellor plans civil service spending cuts
According to a cabinet office source, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to announce a 10% reduction in civil service administration budgets by 2028/29, escalating to 15% by 2029/30. The savings will amount to around £1.5bn by 2028/29, almost 10% of the civil service’s entire £16.6bn annual salary bill. The move could put back office jobs in areas such human resources, communications and policy at risk, but will not cover frontline services such as prisons and Border Force.
Chancellor will not raise taxes in Spring Statement
Rachel Reeves has promised not to raise taxes in the Spring Statement, telling the Sun on Sunday: “This is not a Budget. We’re not going to be doing tax raising.” The Chancellor said that while the Government did “have to put up some taxes on businesses and the wealthiest in the country” in October’s Budget, this will not be the case in next week’s Spring Statement. Ms Reeves also insisted her “fiscal rules are non-negotiable,” meaning the Government will have to cut spending rather than resort to borrowing more to pay for public services. Ms Reeves said that ministers face “tough choices,” but added that “not making them would be a dereliction of duty.” Separately, the Chancellor told a BBC documentary, The Making of a Chancellor, that the Government “can’t tax and spend our way to higher living standards and better public services.”
UK must regulate for growth
Jon Holt, group chief executive and UK senior partner at KPMG, says that the City of London and the UK’s financial services sector has a part to play in the Government’s drive to deliver growth, arguing that policymakers should “work not just to preserve the City and the financial services industry, but to make them greater still.” On regulation of the sector, he says: “Rather than restricting business and creating more administration costs, we need to regulate for growth.” Mr Holt adds: “This means less micro and overlapping regulation, with regulators more focused on the overall outcomes. We have to accept the risk of some failure.” He also says the City must “continue to be open and attractive to more people and businesses from more places and backgrounds.” Mr Holt cites a KPMG poll of financial services leaders which saw 23% say that efforts to attract talent are critical to growth, while just 11% said growth would come from a bigger listing market alone.
Growth focus requires mindset shift
Nikhil Rathi, the chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), has told staff at the City regulator that embracing the Government’s pro-growth agenda will “require a shift in mindset” that may make them “feel uncomfortable and uncertain.” As he prepares to unveil a new five-year strategy, Mr Rathi faces pressure to align the FCA with the Chancellor’s growth objectives and says the watchdog must carefully evaluate what regulations are truly necessary. Having submitted 50 proposals to the Chancellor to stimulate growth, he has reassured staff that the FCA will not compromise consumer protection while pursuing growth, saying: “We’re not going to let that happen.” He added: “What we’re talking about is not a wide pendulum swing away from our core objectives, but it’s also a recognition that we’re not going to achieve those core objectives if we don’t shift towards supporting growth and improving productivity in our economy.”
Businesses doubt growth plans
Businesses are increasingly sceptical about the Government’s growth mission, with a survey by the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry showing that over 85% of 150 business leaders believe Labour will struggle to improve the UK’s stagnant economic growth. Nearly 75% anticipate lower growth in 2025, with many attributing this to a recent capital gains tax increase. Karim Fatehi, CEO of the industry group, has urged Rachel Reeves to “urgently change course” on tax hikes and employment regulations. While the Chancellor has pledged not to raise taxes in her upcoming Spring Statement, economists warn that pressures may mount in the coming months, particularly if trade tariffs from America impact consumer spending. The Growth Commission suggests a trade deal with the US could boost the economy by 0.9% of GDP.
Heathrow closure could cost £4.8m in lost tourism
Analysts at Oxford Economics say a major power outage that forced Heathrow airport to close on Friday will cost the UK economy millions of pounds. Economist Stephen Rooney said: “In terms of what’s at stake, at the conservative end, we estimate a potential loss of tourism revenue amounting to £4.8m per day.” While factors such as travellers spending more money while stuck in the UK will mitigate the economic impact, there are issues outside tourism – such as insurance payouts – that will also need to be factored in.
Heathrow airport reopened for some flights on Saturday after a fire at a nearby electrical substation caused it to close for most of Friday. Heathrow, one of the world’s busiest airports has now returned to full operation.
Bosses question workers’ rights overhaul
The House of Lords is being urged to thoroughly examine the Employment Rights Bill, which has faced significant opposition from business leaders. Firms are concerned that the proposed legislation will impose excessive regulatory burdens and hinder economic growth. Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of the Confederation of British Industry, has described the bill as “damaging” for the jobs market, describing it as a “sledgehammer to crack a nut.” In a joint letter to the House of Lords, business groups warn that granting workers immediate rights to claim unfair dismissal could lead to an influx of tribunal claims, ultimately jeopardising job creation. The coalition of business organisations is calling for amendments to ensure the legislation is both pro-worker and pro-business, emphasising the need for a balanced approach to avoid “grave unintended consequences.”
UK workers in the office two days a week
Workers in the UK are spending two days a week on average in the office, according to a survey of 12,000 employees in 44 countries by property firm JLL. While staff are spending half as many days in the office than they were before the pandemic, the poll shows that UK workers only want to go into the office for an average of 1.5 days per week. While workers in the Philippines are only going into the office for 1.4 days per week, Kuwait has led the way on the post-pandemic return to the office, with staff working in offices for 4.2 days a week. Sue Asprey Price, JLL’s European head of work dynamics, said that while recent years have seen a “reasonable equilibrium in the workplace – a balance between employer expectations and employee flexibility,” stricter return-to-office policies “means this balance is now being re-examined by many employers.”
Chancellor confirms civil service cuts
Rachel Reeves says Government running costs will be cut by 15% by the end of the decade, saying that savings will come from a reduction in back office and administrative roles rather than front-line services. The Chancellor told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that the size of the civil service had increased “massively” during the pandemic. Office for National Statistics data shows that, as of December 2024, an estimated 547,735 people were employed by the civil service. Ms Reeves told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips that staff numbers could be reduced by about 10,000. Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden will write to Whitehall departments, setting out plans designed to deliver savings of more than £2bn a year. Union bosses Dave Penman, head of the FDA, and Mike Clancy, who leads Prospect, have both criticised the move and warned of the impact cuts will have on public services.
Manufacturing output falls
Confederation of British Industry (CBI) analysis shows that manufacturing output volumes have fallen, dipping more in the three months to March than in the quarter to February. The CBI’s Industrial Trends Survey shows that all but three of the 17 manufacturing sub-sectors saw a fall in output. Ben Jones, the CBI’s lead economist, said the sector remains “subdued” due to concerns over the economic outlook, with manufacturers reporting that customers are “generally nervous about proceeding with capital investments.” He added that they are “conserving funds ahead of upcoming increases to National Insurance and minimum wages, leading orders to be cancelled or at least delayed until later in the year.” A recent survey from industry body Make UK suggests that output in the sector fell in the first quarter of the year, marking the first Q1 decline in ten years.
£600m scheme will boost construction workforce
The Government will invest £600m to train bricklayers, electricians, engineers and carpenters in a drive to fill 35,000 job vacancies in the construction industry and help achieve a goal of building 1.5m new homes. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the plans are designed to “get Britain building again,” adding that Labour has already “overhauled the planning system that is holding this country back,” and is now “gripping the lack of skilled construction workers.”
Fines set to soar for late tax returns
Businesses and landlords will face significant fines for late tax returns as part of new measures aimed at reducing tax avoidance. Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to increase late-payment penalties to encourage timely tax payments. Taxpayers earning over £20,000 will incur a 3% penalty for delays beyond 15 days, escalating to 10% for delays exceeding a month. The changes, effective from April 2025 for VAT and 2026 for income tax, will also see more debt collectors employed by HMRC. Last year, 1.1m individuals missed the self-assessment tax return deadline.
IHT plan puts 200k jobs at risk
Research from CBI-Economics indicates that over 200,000 jobs at family-run businesses and farms could be at risk as a result of the Government’s plan to make estates valued at £1m or more liable for 20% inheritance tax. The study, commissioned by Family Business UK, reveals that 23% of family businesses and 17% of family farms have already cut jobs or halted recruitment since the changes were detailed in the Budget. The responses suggest 208,000 jobs could be lost between 2026 and 2029, including 28,000 in the farming sector. Almost one in ten firms said they were planning on selling their business to pay for the tax increases and 9% said they have already done so. The Office for Budget Responsibility has also warned that the tax may generate less revenue than anticipated, with a “high” uncertainty rating on the £500m-a-year forecast. Despite this, the Government insists on moving forward with the policy, claiming it is necessary to address a £22bn shortfall in public finances.
Firms warn of cost pressures
Retail and hospitality bosses have voiced concern over the increased financial pressures that impending hikes to National Insurance and the minimum wage are set to deliver. Employers’ NI contributions will rise by 1.2 points to 15%, generating an additional £25bn for the Treasury, while the minimum wage will increase by 6.7% for over-21s. Retailers have also hit out over adjustments to business rates that are expected to cost them an additional £2.6bn by next year.
London’s store closures return to pre-pandemic levels
Retail closures in London stabilised last year after rising during the pandemic, according to analysis from PwC. Data shows that the capital lost around a store a day in 2024, with five closing and four new stores opening. This means the closure rate was about a fifth lower than in 2023. Retail parks were the only location type to show growth, with an 0.4% increase in outlets compared to a 0.1% increase in 2023. While shopping centre sites were down by 1.2% and the number of high street stores fell by 2.4%, both saw a year-on-year improvement. PwC’s head of retail, Jacqueline Windsor, said the figures indicated “cautious optimism” for the sector. Zelf Hussain, a restructuring partner at the firm, said while the results were positive, retailers “continue to face significant challenges in 2025.”
Government borrowing hits £10.7bn
Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows that Government borrowing was higher than expected in February, with the difference between spending and income from taxes hitting £10.7bn. The Government’s independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), had predicted that borrowing would come in at £6.5bn. While Dennis Tatarkov, senior economist at KPMG, said the latest borrowing figures increase the risk of the Chancellor missing her self-imposed borrowing rules, Isabel Stockton, senior researcher for the Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank, said Rachel Reeves had “boxed herself in with promises to meet her fiscal targets, not to raise taxes further and not to return to austerity for public services.” At October’s Budget, the OBR indicated that Ms Reeves had £9.9bn available to spend against her borrowing rules. However, Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, believes this has now been “wiped out.” Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics have warned that the UK’s “weak” public finances mean the Chancellor will set out spending cuts in the Spring Statement, adding that “taxes will rise in October.” Meanwhile, the OBR is expected to cut its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to about 1%.
Wealthy must pay more tax, say voters
A poll by the Trades Union Congress (TUC) shows that 71% of voters believe that the wealthy should contribute more tax to support public services. TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak commented: “Those with the broadest shoulders should bear the heaviest burden.”
UK tops property tax rankings
According to analysis of Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development figures by tax and software firm Ryan, the UK has the highest property tax burden among advanced economies, with a ratio of 3.7% of GDP for the 2023/24 tax year. This surpasses other developed nations, with Luxembourg and France both at 3.5%, and Canada at 3.4%. The UK’s property tax ratio is significantly above the G7 average of 2.7%. Despite a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year, the analysis highlights that taxes are set to rise for households and businesses in April, with council tax bills increasing by 5% for the third consecutive year.
Pubs face £1,500 weekly tax blow
Tim Martin, the boss of Wetherspoons, has warned that Labour’s tax-raising Budget will cost pubs £1,500 a week. He highlighted that the increased National Insurance and minimum wage will disproportionately affect pubs, which already struggle against supermarkets that benefit from VAT exemptions on food.
Savers flock to fixed-rate accounts
Data shows a significant increase in savers transferring funds to fixed-rate accounts, with 37% of individuals reporting such moves in the last three months. Notably, 31% have shifted £10,000 or more, primarily opting for one-year fixed-rate accounts. With interest rates expected to decrease further, fixed-rate accounts are likely to gain popularity, with 36% of savers planning to move their money from instant access accounts in the next six months.
VCTs hit capacity
Venture capital trusts (VCTs) are reaching capacity as the end of the tax year approaches, with analysis by Wealth Club showing that of £848m in VCT capacity available this tax year, there is just £206m remaining. Capacity is 6% lower this year, with some larger VCTs opting not to raise money this tax year while others have reduced their capacity. VCTs have seen a surge in interest since capital gains tax was hiked in October’s Budget, as profit from these vehicles is exempt from the levy and investors can claim 30% income tax relief on the investments.
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