Business news 27 January 2025
Recession risk as costs rise, Reeves delivers pro business pitch, trade, tariffs, pensions, consumer confidence, markets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Recession risk rises as costs climb
Concerns about a recession are escalating as business leaders warn of impending job cuts due to tax changes set out in the Budget in October. A survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) revealed that firms across various sectors anticipate a “significant fall” in activity over the next three months, having already reported a decline during the previous quarter. The CBI said its data supported the “view that the economy was pretty flat in the final months of 2024.” Looking ahead, the services sector is expecting a 20% decline in business volumes and manufacturing output is forecast to drop by 19%. Alpesh Paleja, an economist at the CBI, commented: “There is an urgent need to get momentum back into the economy,” adding: “The Government can help shift the UK’s economic narrative with more determined focus on measures that could drive growth.”
Businesses hike prices as costs rise
Analysis by S&P Global shows that the average prices charged by private employers climbed at the fastest pace since July 2023 in January. This came as costs increased across the service and manufacturing sectors, with wages, energy bills, and the price of imported raw materials all climbing. Despite this, business activity increased and S&P Global’s flash UK PMI composite output index hit a three-month high of 50.9 in January, from 50.4 the previous month on a scale where a number above 50 indicates expansion. S&P Global also found that employment levels fell for the fourth month in a row, with this attributed in part to an upcoming hike in employers’ National Insurance contributions and a post-Budget slump in business confidence. Thomas Pugh, an economist at RSM UK, said the analysis suggests that confidence is “slowly starting to return after the twin shocks of the Budget and threat of US tariffs”.
Reeves delivers pro-business pitch
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has outlined the Government’s pro-business agenda at the World Economic Forum, aiming to counter criticism over increased employment taxes. She proposed liberalising visas for high-skilled sectors and revising non-dom rules for wealthy foreigners, saying: “We have got the policies, on regulation, planning, capital markets and pension reforms, to give [investors] a reason to have another look at Britain.” While Jon Holt, senior partner at KPMG, said: “The signals have been positive and what businesses wanted to hear,” Sir Martin Sorrell noted that “the devil is going to be in the details and delivery.”
Airport doubts
Cabinet ministers are questioning whether a proposed expansion of London’s Heathrow, Gatwick and Luton airports would have the growth impact intended, as tensions brew within government over Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ growth plans.
Trump & Starmer
Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Donald Trump discussed trade in their first conversation since Trump re-entered the White House. They also agreed to “meet soon.” The leaders spoke about “how both countries can promote a fair bilateral economic relationship” during a phone call Sunday, according to a readout from the White House.
Reeves: UK can learn from Trump’s ‘boosterism’
Rachel Reeves has suggested that the UK needs to learn from Donald Trump’s “boosterism” and be “shouting from the rooftops” about its strengths. Suggesting that Britain may “need more positivity,” the Chancellor said: “I’ve challenged businesses as well and said no one else is going to speak up for Britain apart from us. It hasn’t been a very British thing to say.” Saying that the UK is “absolutely fantastic as a country,” Ms Reeves highlighted the strength of British universities and noted that the country boasts “some of the most amazing entrepreneurs with fantastic ideas.”
Reeves happy to look at European trade scheme
Rachel Reeves has suggested that the UK could look to join a European tariff-free trade scheme. The Chancellor indicated that the Government would consider the prospect of signing up to the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM), as it would any “constructive ideas” that did not cross its “red lines” about not returning to the EU. With EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic having suggested that Britain could join the PEM, which allows for tariff-free trade of goods across Europe, Ms Reeves told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “We are absolutely happy to look at these different proposals because we know that the deal that the previous government secured is not working well enough.”
Trump urged to resist steep UK tariffs
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds says the UK should be excluded from the tariffs President Donald Trump is threatening to impose on exports to the US. Mr Reynolds said: “We’ve obviously got a services-based economy. The US does not have that deficit with us so if that’s the logic of that position, I think we’ve got an argument to engage with.”
Chancellor to release pension surpluses to drive growth
Rachel Reeves is set to announce plans to free surplus money from corporate pension schemes as ministers look to drive economic growth. Government sources said so-called surplus release could unlock more than £60bn of pension surpluses held in defined benefit (DB) schemes, while other estimates suggest that up to £100bn could be unlocked and reinvested. Insiders have revealed that Treasury officials, members of the Number 10 Policy Unit and representatives of FTSE-100 finance chiefs recently met with Varun Chandra, the Prime Minister’s top business adviser, to discuss the surplus release plan in detail. The pensions industry has been pushing for surplus release to be adopted in Britain, with the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association having endorsed the move before last year’s election.
Pensions watchdog overstated scheme assets by £327bn
An error by The Pensions Regulator (TPR) saw the pensions watchdog overstate the assets of workplace retirement schemes by £327bn, meaning there is less in the pot to pay the pensions of scheme members. TPR regulates pension schemes to ensure there is enough to fund payouts and is also responsible for reducing the risk of schemes ending up in the Pension Protection Fund (PPF). TPR and PPF last month admitted that they had made cuts to the valuations of £1.2trn of assets held in defined benefit schemes. Industry expert Con Keating of Brighton Rock notes that TPR valued pension assets at £1.5trn in 2023, with this £327bn higher than a more accurate estimate by the Office for National Statistics. He said that the regulators had “massively overstated” assets and “understated the magnitude” of a market crisis driven by 2022’s mini-Budget.
Consumer confidence slips
Consumer confidence has fallen, according to GfK’s monthly index, which fell to -22 for January, compared to -17 in December. January’s reading marked the index’s lowest figure since December 2023 and the biggest drop between December and January since 2011. All five areas gauged on the index saw declines in January, with expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months seeing the steepest decline, falling eight points to -34
Office life returns as WFH wanes
Five years post-pandemic, remote work remains prevalent, with two in five employees working from home at least once a week, according to the Office for National Statistics. However, office occupancy has surged to 60% of pre-pandemic levels, indicating a shift back toward more traditional working practices. While companies like WPP and Laing O’Rourke are mandating more in-office days, citing productivity concerns, Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon, argues that being in the office fosters better collaboration and innovation. Rachel Harris, founder of StriveX, supports less traditional options, saying: “Remote work isn’t just a perk any more; it’s a necessity for building a modern, inclusive workforce.” As office attendance rises, many employees still prefer hybrid models, with studies suggesting a balance of two to three days in the office is favoured.
Manufacturers expect new orders to decline
Factories are braced for a fall in new business, with the CBI’s new orders expectations index falling to -32% in the three months to January, from -11% in the three months to October. This marks the lowest reading since April 2020, when the country was locked down due to the pandemic. Meanwhile, the CBI’s business sentiment index slid to -47% from -24% over the period. Ben Jones, lead economist at the CBI, said manufacturers have “entered the new year in a grim mood,” warning that confidence “has evaporated” as orders have dropped. He noted that a decline in domestic deliveries comes amid widespread concerns over the possible impact of a hike in employer National Insurance contributions and the minimum wage, as well as changes to employment law. Mr Jones also flagged concern over export prospects, pointing to a slowdown in overseas demand and “ongoing difficulties securing supply contracts with customers based in the EU.”
HMRC boosts headcount to tackle tax debt
HMRC is set to recruit 5,000 additional tax inspectors to recover £6.5bn in unpaid taxes from small businesses and “normal income earners.” Price Bailey notes that the tax office’s recruitment drive will provide one inspector for every 1,000 small businesses. According to HMRC’s Customer Service & Accounts report, the number of compliance staff has increased by 26% over the past three years. MPs have urged HMRC to improve its service and pursue older debts more aggressively, as £5bn in debts were written off last year. This comes amid criticism from the Public Accounts Committee regarding HMRC’s customer service, particularly after 44,000 customers were cut off after lengthy wait times. Jim Harra, chief executive of HMRC, has defended the authority, saying: “In reality, we’ve made huge improvements to our service standards.”
Mortgage rule changes could boost buyers
Analysis by estate agency Savills indicates that proposed changes to mortgage regulations could enable an additional 76,000 first-time buyers to secure loans, potentially increasing first-time buyer numbers by 24%. Mortgage industry experts expect the Financial Conduct Authority to review a stress test which checks whether borrowers could afford their loans if interest rates rose. Rules on interest-only mortgage lending could also be looked at. However, experts warn that relaxing these rules may lead to higher home repossessions and exacerbate housing market inflation.
Overseas buyers eye UK property market
First-time buyers are feeling the pressure as overseas investors, particularly from Asia, increasingly look to the UK property market. In the first half of 2024, new homes purchased by overseas buyers rose by nearly 6%, with significant contributions from Indian and Chinese investors. Rising rents, predicted to increase by 27% in 2025, are exacerbating the challenges for first-time buyers, driven by a shortage of private rentals. Data shows that the average letting agent has a third fewer homes available than before the pandemic.
Amazon yet to corner grocery market
Isabella Fish in the Times details how Amazon Fresh has encountered significant challenges in the UK grocery market, struggling to replicate its success in other sectors. Despite ambitious plans to open over 250 stores by 2024, only 21 have launched, raising concerns about the venture’s viability. Kien Tan, a senior retail adviser at PwC, reflects: “I think it’s taken them a little by surprise at how difficult it is to get shoppers through the door.”
Budget sparks robot revolution
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ October Budget has led to a significant increase in demand for robots, as rising employment costs make human workers less viable. With employers’ National Insurance contributions set to rise from 13.8% to 15% and the minimum wage increasing to £12.21 an hour, companies are reconsidering their investment strategies and Automate UK, the industry body for industrial robots, says more than half of its members have seen a jump in inquiries since the Budget. Mark Gray from Universal Robots highlighted that businesses are now more motivated to invest in automation, saying: “That increase in NI is starting to make an impact.”
Markets
On Friday, Sterling was modestly higher in response to a softer tone on tariffs from US President Donald Trump and as a result, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.73% at 8502.35 while the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.04% at 5219.37. Over in the US the S&P 500 fell 0.29% to 6101.24 and the NASDAQ fell 0.50% to 19954.30.
While a rout in chipmakers weighed on trading Friday, the S&P 500 still climbed 1.7% last week. That was after President Donald Trump talked up policies to boost the economy and lower taxes, while appearing to soften his stance toward tariffs on China.
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek rocked global technology stocks, raising questions over the US’s technological dominance. Chip-related stocks Nvidia and ASML are leading the fall in sentiment. Pundits are raving about Deep Seek, saying it compares favorably to ChatGPT while running on less-advanced chips. They say they only spent $6 million developing their large language model.
This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.2498 and €1.1907. On Commodities, Oil (Brent) is at $78.79 & Gold is at $2763. On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is currently down 0.24% at 8482 and the Eurostoxx 50 is down 1.44% at 5144.
Diageo
Diageo ruled out a sale of the Guinness brand and its stake in Moet Hennessy. “We have no intention to sell either,” the brewer said, after noting press speculation. Bloomberg News on Friday reported that Diageo was mulling a sale of Guinness, as well as its 34% stake in Moet Hennessy, the drinks division of luxury firm LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton.
BHP & Anglo American
BHP has put its plan to take over rival Anglo American on hold, the Financial Times reported Saturday. Citing people close to Melbourne-based BHP, a takeover of London-based Anglo American would be too expensive following a rise in the share price of the latter.
WH Smith
WH Smith is in talks to sell its high street arm. The Swindon based retailer’s high street operation is made up of about 500 stores, the first of which was opened 230 years ago. “WH Smith confirms that it is exploring potential strategic options for this profitable and cash generative part of the group, including a possible sale,” a statement said. Over the past decade, the firm has focused on its more fruitful, travel retail business which operates from airports, train stations and hospitals. The high street business now accounts for only about 15% of annual group trading profit.
Profit warnings surge as costs rise
Analysis by EY shows that one in five UK companies listed on the London stock market issued profit warnings in 2024, with 274 warnings issued in total. This came as firms prepared for increased costs due to the rise in employer National Insurance contributions set out in the Budget. According to the report, the increased NI contributions pose “a significant new challenge to company earnings” in 2025. Jo Robinson, UK restructuring strategy leader at EY, said: “We’re starting to see increased costs continuing and we’re seeing that coming through in profit warnings.” Additionally, job vacancies fell by 9.1% year-on-year in December, as employers reduced staff numbers following the tax-raising Budget, despite wage growth reaching an average of £40,000 for the first time.
Trump stance risks tax war
Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the OECD global tax deal has raised concerns about a potential tax war, with experts warning over retaliatory measures against countries that increase taxes on US multinationals. The OECD deal, which aims to establish a minimum global corporation tax rate of 15%, has already seen implementation by around sixty countries. Ross Robertson, international tax partner at BDO, said that if Mr Trump looks to retaliate, it could spark a tax war, with businesses “caught in the middle of political disagreements.”
Dyson warns that tax changes will ‘destroy’ family businesses
Sir James Dyson has accused Chancellor Rachel Reeves of “vindictiveness” over changes to inheritance tax rules, claiming they will “destroy” family businesses that employ 14m people. In a letter to The Times, Sir James says that the new measures would not raise revenue but instead cost the exchequer billions in other taxes. From April, family businesses will lose their inheritance tax exemption, with a cap of £1m on business property relief. Mr Dyson, whose net worth is £20.8bn, highlighted that 60 of the top 100 UK taxpayers are family business owners, contributing £3bn annually in taxes. He warned that the tax reform set out in October’s Budget will hit these businesses and the vital public services they support, declaring that the Chancellor “is killing the geese that lay the golden eggs.” Ms Reeves has defended the tax rises, arguing they were necessary for public finances, noting that 40% of agricultural property relief benefits only 7% of estates. She told the BBC: “Thirty-seven estates got more than £100m of tax relief. That is not affordable and it is not fair.”
Farmers: IHT plan will decimate sector
The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has warned that the Government’s inheritance tax reforms will “decimate” the agricultural sector. NFU president Tom Bradshaw has called on ministers to reconsider its stance, saying: “We’ve got to keep the pressure on Government to make them recognise that the policies contained within the Budget, the proposals around inheritance tax and agricultural property release are absolutely wrong.” A petition with over 270,000 signatures has been delivered to Downing Street, urging the Government to abandon the proposed tax changes. In response, a Government spokesperson reiterated a commitment to farmers, announcing a £5bn investment in farming over the next two years and a reduced inheritance tax rate of 20%, which they claim will benefit around 500 estates annually.
Ministers call on regulators to drive growth
Oliver Shah in the Sunday Times looks at the Government’s call for regulators to deliver pro-growth strategies. He notes that while the Competition and Markets Authority’s response to a letter from Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was “mildly recalcitrant,” emphasising that an effective competition regime was essential to growth and innovation, Nikhil Rathi, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, has warned that loosening regulations could lead to increased loan defaults and fraud. Mr Shah suggests that it is “not obvious that regulators are the best source of growth initiatives,” saying those who run the most prominent watchdogs “are programmed to worry about avoiding embarrassment at the hands of select committees, not about adding a few basis points to GDP.” Mr Shah goes on to argue that there is a “dissonance between Labour’s newfound zeal for deregulation and its dirigiste instincts,” highlighting that ministers want to create the Regulatory Innovation Office, which will be a regulator to oversee the other regulators.
Quango spending soars post-pandemic
Spending on quangos has surged by nearly 24% since the pandemic, with net costs reaching £33bn last year. Sunday Telegraph analysis of 119 major arms-length bodies revealed that staff costs have increased by almost 15%, with some quangocrats earning over £300,000, significantly more than the Prime Minister’s salary of £166,000. The audit highlights that 546 technocrats earned over £100,000, with 176 surpassing Sir Keir Starmer’s salary. Critics have called for budget reductions and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Minister for Government Efficiency, argues that “quangos have become a law unto themselves.” He added: “Many of them need abolishing and in the absence of abolition the Chancellor should say you’re simply not getting any more cash.” Despite Tory pledges to control spending, taxpayer funding for quangos continues to rise, with a recent report by the Institute for Government indicating an increase in their numbers from 295 to 309 since March 2022. A Cabinet Office spokesman said: “We are making sure every part of government is delivering on working people’s priorities … It is right that people expect public bodies to be held accountable, run effectively and aligned with these priorities.”
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Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
- Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
- Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!
And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
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You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
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The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.