Confidence returns – business news 12 April 2021.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
As shops, hairdressers, gyms, out-door pubs & restaurants open to the public for the first time since the start of the year, we look at the business news in the UK as confidence returns and is rising across the board for consumers and businesses.
As covid cases and deaths drop dramatically, we have been encouraged to continue to act responsibly as the lockdown eases. The country is closing in on so-called herd immunity when three-quarters of the population possess Covid-19 antibodies.
Consumers chomping at the bit
Experts are predicting a spending spree this week as shops reopen on what is being dubbed as “Bounceback Monday”. Analysts predict £4.5bn could be spent in the first seven days of post-lockdown shopping as confidence returns with Lisa Hooker, head of consumer markets at PwC, saying: “You will see a big bang, particularly if the weather is good. There is enormous pent-up demand. Retailers were quite cautious when we came out of lockdown last year but this time there is far more excitement.”
Consumer confidence returns
New analysis by YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research shows consumer confidence returns and has risen to its highest level since August 2018. Employment security is close to pre-pandemic levels, the research found, and for the first time since the start of the pandemic, more households than not believe their finances will improve in the year ahead.
SME confidence soars
A survey of over 1,500 firms by the Federation of Small Businesses found that confidence was at its highest since 2014 with 51% expecting their revenues to grow over the next three months, the highest proportion since the summer of 2015. Only 24% expected sales to fall.
Optimism returns for small businesses
A report from Hitachi Capital shows confidence among small businesses has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with 36% of business owners predicting they will grow during the second quarter, up from just 14% a year ago. The percentage fearing collapse has also fallen from 29% over the past year to 7%.
Optimism returns for finance bosses
A poll of FTSE 350 finance directors by Deloitte has revealed that the proportion expecting a reduction in capital spending over the next three years has fallen to 19% from 65% last summer. Additionally, 29% now expect to reduce hiring, down from 74% last summer. Hiring expectations have increased markedly while two-thirds of bosses expect the bulk of their work-forces will return to the office by the third quarter of the year.
UK has best first quarter for IPOs in 14 years
EY ‘s latest IPO Eye report shows the UK had the strongest first quarter for initial public offerings in 14 years with 12 main market and eight Aim IPOs raising a total of £5.6bn. This is more than half of the £9.4bn raised in the whole of 2020. The same period in 2020 saw just three IPOs on the main market and two on Aim, which raised a combined total of £615m. EY said confidence in the UK’s IPO markets as an exit route had been reinforced by significant private equity activity in the quarter. The report also showed that the UK has maintained both its position as the leading listing location in Europe and its third place position globally behind the US and China.
Supply chains will fight for tougher regulation if corporates fail them
Rashmi Dube asserts in the Yorkshire Post that it is small businesses that pay the price for corporate governance failings at large businesses, along with Big Four conflicts of interest. Companies such as Carillion and BHS are forced into insolvency by board-level failings and suppliers want to know how they are going to be protected going forward. “It’s time for regulation and legislation to become stronger and better.”
Employment Prospects improve as Brexit-related uncertainty wanes
New research from BDO indicates that employment prospects are improving amid the success of the vaccine rollout and extension of the job retention scheme. Although the pandemic has seen the number of payroll employees go down by 693,000 on a year ago, the absence of Brexit-related uncertainty has also helped to fuel renewed optimism, BDO said.
Property developer boss says workers must return to the office
Land Securities CEO Mark Allan is urging the Government to change its guidance that states people should continue work from home if they can until June at the earliest. A safe return to the office should be accelerated if we are to see economic activity in Britain’s cities revived, Allan said. His comments come as employers including HSBC, Lloyds, Grant Thornton and PwC have said they will slash office space after the pandemic recedes.
Full extent of pandemic’s high street casualties yet to be revealed
More than 17,500 chain store outlets disappeared from British high streets last year as the pandemic drove the worst decline on record. As the survivors prepare for reopening, figures compiled by the Local Data Company and PwC show fashion retailers were the hardest hit, followed by betting shops, pubs and bars and restaurants. Lisa Hooker, the head of consumer markets at PwC, commented: “The full extent will be revealed in the coming months as many of the [company restructures] and administrations in the early part of 2021 still haven’t been captured, including department stores, fashion retailers and hospitality operators that will leave big holes.” Separate figures from the British Retail Consortium show the closures wiped out 176,000 retail jobs at a rate of 484 jobs a day with a further 11,986 jobs were lost through CVAs.
Trade with France returns to pre-Brexit levels
March saw trade between the UK and France return to pre-Brexit levels raising hopes of a swift recovery as businesses get to grips with customs arrangements. Analysis by French customs officials shows imports from Britain climbed to 107% of typical levels after taking Covid effects into account, the research found – with exports back at 96%. German figures for February also showed improvement with the sharp slump witnessed in January shrinking markedly. However, trade experts said Anglo-German trade is still struggling badly with exporters hit particularly hard
Furlough fraud cases rocket
Official figures from HMRC show reports of furlough themed fraudulent activity have risen to just over 26,000; at the time of the Budget HMRC had 10,000 live inquiries. Iskander Fernandez, Head of White Collar Crime and Investigations at BLM, said of the Chancellor’s £100m funding for the taskforce that it may be considered “a conservative sum given the potential scale of fraud.”
One in ten cheques from HMRC not cashed
HMRC has said that nearly 3.8m cheques sent to taxpayers between 2015 and 2020 have not been deposited in accounts, amounting to a tenth of all tax rebates sent by post over the period. Less than 2% of tax refunds are made by cheque, according to HMRC, which said it pays money into people’s bank accounts directly where possible.
Banks prepare to claw back billions in Covid loans
HSBC, NatWest, Barclays and Lloyds have begun writing to businesses warning them that repayments on emergency support loans will soon be expected. Banks have handed out more than £75bn to 1.6m firms under a number of schemes set up by Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, and are expected to spend millions on recovery. One senior banker warned that lenders could go in hard to recover debts after a recent court case found banks do not have a duty of care to borrowers who fail to repay.
House prices expected to continue rising
Figures from Halifax on Friday show house prices rose 1.1% during March, the biggest increase in six months. In annual terms, prices rose 6.5%, the strongest reading in four months and taking the average house price to a record high £254,606, Halifax said. The lender added that it expected the upturn to persist in the next few months as consumer confidence grows on the back of Britain’s swift COVID-19 vaccine rollout. “However, with the economy yet to feel the full effect of its biggest recession in more than 300 years, we remain cautious about the longer-term outlook,” Halifax added.
London takes global top spot for luxury home sales
New figures show the world’s super-rich bought more homes in London than any other city in the world last year, spending almost $4bn on super-prime properties in the UK capital.
Britons may have to work an extra four years before retirement
Experts have suggested a recent study concluding that the average retirement age has risen from 64 to 66 may be off the mark by four years or more. Neil Moles, CEO of financial advice firm Progeny, says his research indicates “people are expecting to work for up to two years more, however, we could be looking at three, four or more years longer than this for many people.” Moles suggests this is a result of fears over high levels of government debt and future tax hikes, as well as concerns over looking after other family members after they retire.
MPs call for fairness as IR35 changes rolled out
The All Party Parliamentary Loan Charge Group has called for off-payroll reforms currently being rolled out to be re-examined during the passage of the Finance Bill this year. A report from the group stated that: “All ‘inside IR35’ workers should get full rights under all legislation dealing with agency workers, with a clear and transparent right to holiday and sick pay.” The APPG recommended an alignment of tax and employment law to ensure fairness, declaring: “We call on the Government to accept it is unfair for workers who are taxed as employees to be denied the rights and benefits of an employee or recognition in employment law. Anyone who is taxed as an employee should also receive the corresponding benefits; thus, by aligning tax and employment law, certainty for both contractors and hirers will ensue.”
Take care of emerging markets, your future depends on it
The International Monetary Fund warned last week that the multi-speed recovery from the pandemic was leaving developing nations behind. The worst-hit countries will be emerging Asian economies which could suffer a near-8% loss in GDP by 2024 compared to pre-Covid projections. The US, by comparison, will be larger by 2024 than it would have been if Covid had never hit. “Last year, everyone spent like crazy, it was a big widening of fiscal deficits everywhere in advanced economies and in emerging markets,” explains Marcelo Carvalho, head of global emerging markets research at BNP Paribas. “The difference is the room for manoeuvre; the fiscal space is more limited for emerging markets. In advanced economies, you can print your own hard currency, it’s not the case for emerging markets.” The Telegraph’s Tom Rees concludes: “Advanced economies could soon put Covid in the rear-view mirror but for many poorer countries a longer, rougher road to recovery lies ahead.”
US tax plans could prove costly for British businesses
Although UK officials have welcomed moves by the Biden administration to force multinationals to pay more tax, the Treasury is urgently reviewing how the plans might affect UK businesses. There is concern in Whitehall that British companies could end up paying more elsewhere in the world as a result of the proposals, potentially reducing revenues for the Exchequer. Washington’s plans would see a global minimum corporation tax and levies for companies based on the location of their sales. While tax campaigners and the Labour party urge the Chancellor to publicly back the plan – Tax Justice UK estimates the blueprint would bring in an extra £13.5bn a year for the public purse – Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said while a co-ordinated international approach to addressing tax avoidance is preferable to a disjointed nation by nation approach, “significant questions remain on how it would work in practice.”
Brooks Brothers UK enters administration
The British division of US clothing retailer Brooks Brothers has entered administration, after suffering from a lack of demand for its products as people worked from home. Begbies Traynor has been appointed as the company’s administrators.
NCP’s landlords gear up for battle over restructuring plans
Landlords are fighting back against demands from Japanese-owned car park operator NCP that substantial rent arrears are written off. Sky News reports that a group of landlords is said to be lining up AlixPartners and Hogan Lovells to advise them in a bid to overturn NCP’s proposals. Melanie Leech, the chief executive of the British Property Federation, said: “This Restructuring Plan, if approved, will signal to businesses that they can use this new business rescue procedure to simply walk away from debt owed to property-owners […] who represent local authorities and millions of pensioners and savers invested in commercial property, to a business’ shareholders.” NCP, which is being advised by Deloitte, has warned that it is likely to collapse unless the restructuring is implemented.
Future less than certain for Bonmarché
The Telegraph considers the fate of Bonmarché as administrators try to decide how many stores will reopen when Covid restrictions are lifted on Monday. Just over 70 of the chain’s stores were taken over four months ago and are set to reopen today but some or all of the remaining 148 stores may never reopen. Administrators at RSM have been reviewing the options but declined to say how many stores will reopen this week.
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