The Budget Reaction – Business news 31 October 2024
The Budget reaction, markets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Budget reaction
Labour Chancellor, Rachel Reeves used her first Budget to emphasize public sector investment, with the message that this is a budget for business and a budget for growth. however the headline is that she is raising taxes by a significant £40billion, which is £5billion more than many anticipated.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) marginally downgraded their growth rate predictions and also indicated that there may be inflationary and higher interest rate consequences from the Budget decisions. They also said that the size of the state is forecast to settle at 44% of GDP by 2030, almost 5% higher than before the pandemic, with Budget policy decisions increasing state spending by almost £70bn a year by then.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts inflation to be 2.5% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028, and 2.0% in 2029. Real GDP growth is projected to be 1.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027, 1.5% in 2028, and 1.6% in 2029
While there are no direct policy changes regarding credit management, late payments or debt collections, there are direct business impacts and also measures that will affect the affordability of debt repayment. For example, the OBR has downgraded its expectations of disposable household incomes principally because of the pass-through of higher employer NICS changes.
Some of the key changes that will impact Business cash flow are:
- Employers National Insurance raised to 15% from April 2025 and reducing the threshold at which payments are triggered from £9k to £5k, raising a very significant £25billion pa by 2029 – with the IFS estimating that around three-quarters could be passed through to lower pay. Employer NICS is the big tax story out of this Budget.
- National living wage raised to £12.21 per hour and phasing out lower rates for younger adults.
- Capital Gains Tax increased basic rate from 10% to 18% and higher rate from 20% to 24% raising over £2bn in revenues
- The Energy Profits Levy increase could be passed on in higher energy costs to customers
- Business Rates – The current 75% discount to business rates, set to expire in April 2025, will be replaced by a 40% discount — up to a maximum discount of £110,000.
- Corporation Tax – A Corporate Tax Roadmap will be published, which confirms the cap on corporation tax at 25% and the maintenance of full expensing. The Small Business Tax multiplier will be frozen next year.
Other measures
- Counter-fraud teams at the DWP expanded and an additional 3000 anti-fraud staff to recover debt and error sums.
- Recruit 5000 additional HMRC debt compliance staff aiming to improve yields by over £2bn annually by 2029.
- Increase the interest rate on unpaid tax debt by a further 1.5% from April.
- Reducing share of benefits that can be deducted for repayment of benefit overpayments
- Business asset disposal relief – Rates for business asset disposal relief will increase from 10% to 14% in April 2025 and 18% from 2026-27.
- Non-Doms – The non-domiciled tax regime will be abolished, removing the concept of domicile from the tax system starting April 2025.
- Government borrowing rules – The Government will adopt the Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities (PSNFL) metric to measure debt, creating approximately £50 billion in fiscal headroom. This approach facilitates borrowing for infrastructure investments, balancing public service support with market stability.
- Investing in Business – The Government will provide £1 billion to support the aerospace sector, over £2 billion for the automotive industry, and up to £520 million for a new Life Sciences Innovative Manufacturing Fund. Additionally, £20 billion will support core research, with at least £6.1 billion directed toward engineering, biotechnology, and medical science.
Labour hikes taxes by over £40bn
Rachel Reeves has announced a £41.5bn tax increase in her first Budget, the largest increase since 1993 taking Britain’s tax burden to the highest on record. The Chancellor added £28bn per year in extra borrowing to this, unnerving bond markets and sending the cost of borrowing up sharply. Ten-year bonds rose to over 4.4% – their highest this year, while yields on two-year gilts jumped to 4.36%. The tax and borrowing hikes were accompanied by plans for a £100bn rise in capital spending. A £25bn rise in national insurance paid by employers will fund most of the tax increase, while roughly £9bn a year will be raised from higher taxes on non-doms, private schools, energy companies and private equity bosses. Labour’s Budget prompted the Office for Budget Responsibility to downgrade its growth projections from 2026-28 due to higher taxes weighing on household incomes and higher borrowing driving up inflation, keeping interest rates higher for longer. Speaking to Sky News following her appearance in the Commons, the Chancellor said the scale of the tax hike was a “once in a parliament” event but could not rule out further increases as this would be “irresponsible.”
NICs rise expected to hit workers hard
Rachel Reeves has announced significant changes to National Insurance (NI) contributions, reducing the threshold for employers from £9,100 to £5,000 and increasing the rate by 1.2% to 15%. The move, part of a £40bn tax hike package, is expected to lead to a decrease in hiring and significantly impact living standards. Shevaun Haviland, director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the increase in NICs, alongside a 6.7% rise in the national living wage, will stymie investment and slow recruitment. Elsewhere, Roger Barker, director of policy at the Institute of Directors, warned that the Budget may negatively impact business confidence, stating: “The risk is that this will exert a negative impact on business confidence, with worrying implications for the economy’s future growth trajectory.” In a concession to small businesses, the Chancellor doubled to £10,500 the employment allowance that businesses can claim back against national insurance costs. This was welcomed by Tina McKenzie, of the Federation of Small Businesses, but she said small firms will struggle with the increase in NICs “on top of the large costs from the Government’s employment law plans.”
Tax relief reduction sparks business fears
Industry leaders have raised concerns that a reduction in property tax relief will lead to store closures and job losses in small retail, hospitality, and leisure sectors. Rachel Reeves announced plans to cut the current 75% discount on business rates to 40%, affecting over 250,000 high street premises in England. Vivienne King, chair of the Shopkeepers’ Campaign, stated: “This will leave many facing unmanageable bills and difficult decisions about their future.” The changes are expected to result in an average 140% increase in business rates bills, amounting to £688m. Kate Nicholls of UK Hospitality warned that the reduced relief, combined with rising costs, will make 2025 a challenging year for the sector. Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said that with retailers paying more than 21% of all business rates in the economy, “the solution is not to simply shift the burden around, but to look outside retail to address the disproportionate impact of business rates on the industry”.
Tax on draft beer cut, but wine and spirit producers dismayed
Rachel Reeves announced in her Budget that she was cutting duty on draught alcohol sold in pubs by 1.7%, with the Chancellor explaining that: “This means a penny off a pint in the pub.” However, this was offset by an increase in the duty of non-draught alcohol, which is due to increase in February by 2.7%, in line with Retail Price Inflation (RPI). This left the wine and spirits sector dismayed, with Miles Beale, chief executive of the Wine and Spirits Trade Association (WSTA) describing Labour’s Budget as a “real kick in the teeth for both businesses and consumers.” Elsewhere, Mark Kent, chief executive of the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA), called the announcement a “hammer blow” to the Scotch Whisky industry. Britain’s pubs and restaurants weren’t impressed either with Greene King CEO Nick Mackenzie saying cutting 1p off the cost of a pint was “a drop in the ocean” compared with tax hikes imposed on businesses.
Smokers and vapers set to pay more
Rachel Reeves on Wednesday announced a new vaping tax and an increase in tobacco duty during her Autumn Budget. The Chancellor said that there would be a one-off 10% increase in duty for hand-rolling tobacco and that the Government would renew the tobacco duty escalator at Retail Price Index (RPI) plus 2%. Reeves also revealed a new “flat rate duty” on all vaping liquid would be introduced from October 2026. This will add £2.20 per 10ml of vaping liquid.
Labour commits £5bn for housebuilding programme
Rachel Reeves has committed to more than £5bn of investment in housebuilding over next year, with measures including skills training, reforms to the planning system and additional assistance for affordable housing. An additional £3bn of support for SMEs and the build-to-rent sector – in the form of housing guarantee schemes – was also revealed. Meanwhile, an additional £46m of funding would be provided to support recruitment and training of 300 graduates and apprentices into local planning authorities.
APD rise a hit to holidaymakers and business travellers alike
Air Passenger Duty (APD) has been increased by the Chancellor. The Government said that APD will increase by £1 to £8 for people taking domestic flights, by £2 to £15 for short-haul trips and by £12 to as much as £106 for long-haul destinations, with bigger increases for premium passengers. But those flying on private jets will face an increase of 50%, taking the most expensive rate from £607 to £673 per passenger in April 2025 and then to just over £1,000 from April 2026. The Business Travel Association said the increases are “deeply concerning and further burden the business travel sector.”
Non-dom reforms will see Britain’s richest residents flee
Rachel Reeves confirmed the Government will abolish non-dom tax status from April 2025, replacing it with a residence-based regime with reliefs for temporary visitors. For the first time, the former non-doms will be taxed on their worldwide income and capital gains, not just from work and investments in the UK. The new regime will also bring foreign earnings into the inheritance tax system, but will extend the transition period for people to bring money onshore from two years to three. Another concession is an extension from two years to three years in the period during which former non-doms would pay a lower rate of tax on 12-15% on repatriated income used for spending or investing in the UK. While some have welcomed the move, others have warned that the abolition of the system could negatively impact the UK, with Miranda Fisher, partner in the family law team at Charles Russell Speechlys, saying it could lead to “a loss of the highest proportion of millionaires in the world over the next few year.” The OBR estimated that 25% of non-doms with offshore trusts would now leave the UK, up from a previous estimate of 20%. Scrapping the scheme could cost the UK £6.5bn by 2035, and 23,000 jobs by 2030, according to the free-market leaning Adam Smith Institute. But the Government believes the reforms would raise more than £12bn in the next five years.
Labour devastates family farmers
Practically all farmers can now expect to be subject to inheritance tax (IHT) on their deaths after the Chancellor announced that business property relief (BPR) and agricultural property relief (APR) will be subject to a £1m combined cap of 100% relief from April 2026. Values in excess of this amount will only benefit from 50% relief meaning an effective tax rate of 20%. The move will affect an estimated 70,000 farms, many of which will be broken up and sold because farmers who are normally financially dependent on their agricultural assets, meaning they cannot gift them effectively for IHT purposes. The change could also see the value of agricultural land fall as sales rise, resulting in more land being bought up by bigger businesses. Victoria Vyvyan, president of the Country Land and Business Association, said the change was “nothing short of a betrayal”, as Secretary of State Steve Reed had last year said: “We have no intention of changing APR.” Elsewhere, Tom Bradshaw, president of the NFU, said: “It’s been a disastrous budget for family farmers. The shameless breaking of clear promises on agricultural property relief will snatch away the next generation’s ability to carry on producing British food, plan for the future and shepherd the environment.”
Some 37,000 children will be forced out of private schools
Rachel Reeves confirmed in her Budget that private school fees would be subject to VAT from January. Military and diplomatic families are set to be spared from the tax raid but the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) admitted the policy will force 35,000 children out of private schools and into the state sector, while a further 2,000 pupils will leave private schools – comprised of international students who won’t move into the UK state system and domestic pupils who move into homeschooling. In total, this amounts to 6% of the private school population, costing the state sector £300m per year. The OBR said oversubscribed and popular schools are likely to impose close to the full VAT rate of 20%, while those with places and the ability to offset the new tax will still be looking at fee increases of around 14%. Separately, the Chancellor also announced a £1bn uplift in funding to reform the SEND system, which will come from the overall £2.3bn school funding uplift.
Pensions to attract inheritance tax
Rachel Reeves announced in her Budget that inherited pensions will be included in inheritance tax for the first time from 2027. Unspent pension funds can still be passed on to a spouse or civil partner without them paying the tax. Rachel McEleney, associate tax director at Deloitte, said the changes meant that beneficiaries could end up getting taxed twice under the new system. “Assuming the whole fund is subject to 40% inheritance tax, and the beneficiary pays income tax at 45% on the remainder, this appears to give rise to an effective 67% tax rate on taxable pension death benefits.” A Treasury source cited by the Times defended the new system arguing that current rules had led to people using pensions as a tax planning vehicle to transfer wealth rather than their original purpose of funding retirement. According to analysis by Rathbones, the move will increase the number of estates liable for inheritance tax by almost a quarter.
Rachel Reeves vows to crack down on tax avoidance
The Government is set to intensify its efforts against companies promoting tax avoidance schemes that enable workers to obscure their employment status and reduce tax liabilities. The Chancellor said the initiative will help close the £6.5bn tax gap and clamp down on those umbrella companies who exploit workers. Additionally, HMRC will hire 5,000 new staff by 2029-30, with an expected £2.7bn gain for the Treasury in that tax year. But Fiona Fernie, a partner at Blick Rothenberg, said: “Despite the Chancellor’s suggestion that she is going to raise billions each year by closing the tax gap, it is difficult to see how this is going to be achieved. The provisions set out show that only 200 additional HMRC compliance staff are due to start training in November and the training will inevitably take several months.”
Markets
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.73% at 8159.63 and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 1.3% at 4885.75. Overnight in the US stocks slid on Thursday morning as Wall Street absorbed a fresh batch of earnings reports from mega-cap technology names. The S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 5813.67 and the NASDAQ fell 0.56% to 18607.93.
Microsoft and Meta both reported stronger than expected third-quarter revenue, of $65.6bn and $40.6bn respectively. But the US tech giants said spending on artificial intelligence, including on data centres and chips, would rise further next year. Microsoft also warned that growth was cooling in its cloud computing business. That sent investors running as shares in both firms sold off after they announced results.
Meanwhile in macro news, the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the three months to September, just below analysts’ expectations.
This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.298 and €1.195. On Commodities, Oil (Brent) is at $72.75 & Gold is at $2777 On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is currently down 0.74% at 8098 and the Eurostoxx 50 is down 0.92% at 4840.
Shell reported quarterly adjusted profits of just over $6 billion, down 4% from the second quarter and compared to a year ago, but around 12% better than the average forecast. Free cash flow of $10.8 billion was up around $650m on the previous quarter and $3 billion versus a year ago. Shell paid $5.7 billion of shareholder distributions in the quarter, with $3.5 billion spent on the share buyback declared for the second quarter and $2.2 billion on dividends. A dividend of $0.3440 per share was declared for the third quarter as well as the new share buyback, which is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter 2024 results announcement.
Reeves scraps British ISA plans
The Labour Government confirmed on Wednesday that the annual subscription limit for Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) will remain frozen until 2030. Hopes of a rise in the £20,000 allowance for cash ISAs was dashed, but a rumoured lifetime cap of £500,000 also did not materialise at least. The Chancellor also confirmed Labour’s decision to scrap the British ISA, which had been announced by former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt at the Spring Budget in March. “It’s a relief to see plans for a UK ISA finally dumped on the scrapheap,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Private equity bosses face higher taxes on profits
Labour has made changes to carried interest relief – the tax due on the share of profits paid to investment fund managers. Previously subject to capital gains at rates of 18% and 28%, the tax will be a single rate of 32% from April 2025. The Chancellor said the fund management industry “provides a vital contribution to our economy” but there “needs to be a fairer approach to the way carried interest is taxed.” The changes will raise around £300m for the Treasury, according to Budget documents. Rachel Reeves previously suggested there could be allowances for dealmakers that commit their own personal capital to funds. Michael Moore, chief executive of the British Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (BVCA), said there should now be a “resolute focus on international competitiveness” as the Government fleshes out the details.
Stamp duty on second homes to rise
In her Budget on Wednesday, the Chancellor announced a rise in stamp duty of 2 percentage points for people who buy second homes or buy-to-let properties. The rate will rise from 3% to 5% from 31st October 2024. This means someone buying a property costing £300,000 will pay an extra £6,000 in tax. Rachel Reeves said the move would benefit first-time buyers. However, Paul Johnson, of the IFS, warned that this tax increase would end up costing renters. Additionally, a decision not to extend the relief for those buying their first home means an extra 20% of first time buyers will have to pay more in stamp duty from March 31st next year. First-time buyers are currently able to claim full relief on stamp duty for purchases of homes worth up to £425,000. This is set to reduce to £300,000 next year.
CGT hike will raise £2.5bn
The Chancellor said in her Budget that capital gains tax (CGT) will be increased from 10% to 18% in the lower bracket and 20 to 24% in the higher bracket. The residential property thresholds will remain unchanged. Rachel Reeves claimed the move would raise £2.5bn. The increase was less than expected with some predicting a doubling of rates. However, Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said it was still a “blow for investors” and would make investment less attractive.
Eurozone
Eurozone GDP showed growth of 0.4% for the third quarter compared to the previous. This was up on the 0.2% quarterly growth in the second, which was expected to be continued. Compared to last year, euro area GDP was up 0.9%, improving from the 0.6% growth in the second quarter and beating the 0.8% consensus estimate.
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Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
- Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
- Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!
And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.