Business news 4 March 2025
Some of the business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Public confidence in UK economy plummets
Public confidence in the UK economy is waning, according to the City AM Freshwater Strategy poll. The survey indicates that 18% of voters are in “high financial stress,” unable to manage an unexpected £500 bill. Additionally, 35% reported troubled finances, while only 30% felt comfortable. Economist Ashley Webb from Capital Economics noted that households are opting to save rather than spend, contributing to a stagnating economy, which he predicts will “flatline at best” in early 2025. The poll also shows that over half of respondents expect economic conditions to worsen, raising concerns about Labour’s ability to stimulate growth. Nearly 44% anticipate their household finances will decline in the next year.
UK business activity hits new low
Recent findings from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) indicate a significant decline in UK private sector activity, with the growth index plummeting to -27% in February from -23% in January. All sectors reported falling business volumes, and firms anticipate further declines in the coming months. Alpesh Paleja, CBI deputy chief economist, commented: “Growth expectations have become marginally less negative, driven by a predicted return to growth in the manufacturing sector.” However, consumer-facing sectors are particularly struggling.
Record number of bosses fear cost increases
A study by the Institute of Directors (IoD) has found that some 89% of business leaders expect costs to increase in the coming year, with just 2% anticipating a fall. This is a record high, while a net balance of 64% of business leaders expressing pessimism almost matches the high seen during the pandemic. “As businesses adjust to an evolving cocktail of costs and risks, around half are expecting to reduce employment in response to rising costs, with price increases also being considered,” said Anna Leach, the chief economist at the IoD. “Meanwhile, investment intentions have dipped further, as businesses expect tax increases to hit their bottom line more than previously.”
Barrier to export and workforce costs worry business
A survey by BDO has revealed that medium-sized companies are concerned about international expansion barriers and rising workforce costs, with nearly half seeking better government support for exporting. This includes broadening the access to UK Export Finance support to the mid-market, new free trade agreements and simpler customs rules to aid the export of products or services overseas. Some 25% of business leaders cited rising workforce costs, such as national insurance contributions (NICs) and the living wage, as a significant concern.
Higher taxes loom as spending headroom vanishes
Reports indicate that Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spending headroom has been eliminated, raising concerns about potential tax adjustments in the upcoming Spring Statement. Sir Keir Starmer has suggested that Reeves may need to consider tax increases or public spending cuts to adhere to her borrowing rules. Although she has committed to avoiding drastic tax changes, the current economic climate, characterised by weaker growth and rising inflation, may necessitate fiscal adjustments, says Katie Elliott in the Express. Potential changes include extending the freeze on income tax thresholds, possibly until 2030, while reforms to individual savings accounts (ISAs) and National Insurance Contributions (NICs) are also under discussion. Another move could be the scaling back or scrapping the Lifetime ISA, suggests Tim Stovold, head of tax at Moore Kingston Smith.
Small businesses hike prices ahead of NICs rise
According to a recent survey by Shawbrook, over 40% of the UK’s small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) anticipate that the Government’s increase in National Insurance Contributions (NIC) will adversely affect their operations. The upcoming 1.2% rise, set to take effect from April 6, 2025, has prompted a third of SME leaders to consider or implement price increases for their goods and services. Neil Rudge, Shawbrook’s chief banking officer, said: “In addition to the rise in National Insurance contributions for employers, a range of other policy changes will also impact SMEs, creating a challenging environment. Many businesses will likely respond by raising prices or reducing staff – strategies that could have far-reaching implications for the broader economy.”
Labour’s switch-off policy faces axe
Several papers pick up on news first reported in the Sunday Times that Labour is to drop its commitment to a “right to switch off” outside work hours as ministers prepare to announce amendments to the Employment Bill. This policy was a key element of Sir Keir Starmer’s “New Deal for Working People,” aimed at enhancing employment rights. However, a government source told the paper: “The right to switch off is dead. We have to lower business compliance costs as much as possible.” Planned changes to zero hours regulations and probation periods will also be adjusted – to the irritation of unions. Employers had warned that Labour’s workers’ rights programme, championed by Angela Rayner, would lead to mass layoffs, especially when coupled with increases in the national minimum wage and national insurance for employers.
Experts question report on IR35
A recent government report on IR35 indicates that £4.2bn in additional tax has been generated since the reforms were implemented. However, experts caution that the impact of the reforms has been “continually downplayed.” The off-payroll working rules aimed to ensure that workers classified as employees pay the same tax and National Insurance contributions as direct employees. Qdos CEO Seb Maley said: “There are some bold claims in this report. These rules created confusion, uncertainty and damage to the contracting landscape. Many businesses stopped engaging contractors as a direct result of the reforms.” Dave Chaplin, CEO of IR35 Shield added: “The [IR35] rules have created a hostile environment for genuine contractors and the businesses that need their expertise – exactly the opposite of what our economy needs.”
Lowest earners to be eligible for sick pay from day one
Britain’s 1.3m lowest-paid workers will soon be eligible for statutory sick pay (SSP) from their employers, receiving 80% of their usual earnings from day one of sickness. The change is part of the Employment Rights Bill and is expected to cost businesses up to £5bn annually. Currently, to qualify for statutory sick pay, you must have been ill for more than three days in a row and earn an average of at least £123 a week. Work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall said: “For too long, sick workers have had to decide between staying at home and losing a day’s pay.” While the reforms aim to support low earners, concerns have been raised by business groups regarding the potential impact on absenteeism and employment costs. Jane Gratton, deputy director of public policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said businesses were concerned the day-one entitlement “could lead to an increase in staff absenteeism that will be difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to accommodate”.
Youth jobs crisis hits UK
The UK is facing a significant youth jobs crisis, with an estimated 987,000 individuals aged 16 to 24 classified as not in education, employment, or training (Neet) during the last quarter of 2023. This figure marks the highest level of Neets in over a decade, reflecting a rise of more than a quarter of a million since the Covid pandemic. Barry Fletcher, chief executive of the Youth Futures Foundation, said: “If we are to prevent long-term scarring effects for young people… then we need sustained focus on the issue.” Experts attribute the rise in Neets to years of underfunding in employment support and the impact of Covid lockdowns, alongside a surge in youth mental health issues.
Rogue firms threaten UK workers’ rights
MPs are urging changes to the Employment Rights Bill to prevent “rogue firms” from undermining reputable employers in the UK. The House of Commons Business and Trade Committee (BTC) pointed to the risk of the UK becoming a “dumping ground” for poor labour practices, particularly concerning forced labour in supply chains. The report calls for explicit reforms to eliminate exploitative zero-hours contracts and improve worker status. Concerns were raised about companies like Shein and Evri, which have faced scrutiny over their employment practices. The committee called for the Fair Work Agency and ACAS to be strengthened to ensure compliance with new laws and protect workers’ rights.
Factory job cuts near five-year high
Rising taxes and inflation have pushed manufacturers to cut jobs at the fastest rate since 2020, according to the S&P Global UK manufacturing PMI survey. Higher costs have pushed output down to a 14-month low with the PMI recording a reading of 46.9 in February, indicating ongoing contraction. However, business optimism reached a six-month high, driven by investment spending and hopes for improved economic conditions. Tom Pugh, an economist at RSM, pointed out that weak growth in major trading partners and uncertainty around US tariffs are heavily impacting the manufacturing sector.
Boosting small business in defence
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is launching a new hub aimed at enhancing access for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to defence contracts. This initiative follows the Prime Minister’s commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5% of the UK’s economic output by 2027. Defence Secretary John Healey said: “For too long small businesses felt locked out of defence but we’ve listened and we’re acting.” The MoD anticipates that around 12,000 SMEs could benefit from these plans, which aim to ensure that increased defence spending translates into economic growth across the UK, particularly outside the affluent south east.
Reform UK outline plan to rejuvenate the high street
Britain’s high streets are facing a crisis, with empty shops and rising crime creating a bleak environment for communities, writes Giles Sheldrick in the Express. Reform UK has proposed a 10-point plan to rejuvenate these areas, urging immediate action from local councils and politicians. MP Rupert Lowe pointed to the need for “time-limited free parking zones” and increased police presence to restore safety and footfall. He also suggested shifting tax burdens from small businesses to online giants and simplifying planning regulations to encourage entrepreneurship.
Services firms report falling profits, higher costs
Profits in Britain’s services sector have significantly declined, with the Confederation of British Industry’s quarterly survey revealing a profitability drop to -37 in the three months to February, the steepest fall since August 2020. Consumer-facing firms reported a morale level of -55, indicating a cautious spending mindset among households. CBI’s deputy chief economist, Alpesh Paleja, said: “While businesses are grappling with the rise in employment costs… it’s clear that underlying demand conditions remain weak too.” The survey also highlighted expectations for price increases among firms, raising concerns for the Bank of England as it assesses inflation pressures.
Scotland leads UK in workplace equality
Scotland has been recognised as the best region in the UK for women in the workplace, according to PwC’s Women in Work Index, marking its second consecutive year at the top. The report highlights a significant narrowing of the gender pay gap, which decreased from 11.8% in 2022 to 8.3% in 2023. Gillian Alexander, partner at PwC Scotland, said: “Scotland’s sustained success in the Women in Work Index is a testament to a proactive approach in addressing gender workplace inequalities.” Despite Scotland’s progress, other UK regions have seen widening disparities, with the UK overall slipping in the OECD rankings. The report stresses the importance of continued efforts to enhance women’s participation in the workforce, which has contributed an additional £6.2bn to the UK economy annually. Employment minister Tom Arthur acknowledged the need for further action to ensure fair pay and secure work for women.
Net zero drive makes families poorer
Research by Peel Hunt reveals that Britain’s net zero policies have contributed to a decline in living standards, contradicting claims by Chancellor Rachel Reeves that there is no trade-off between economic growth and decarbonisation. Kallum Pickering, Peel Hunt’s chief economist, said: “Once the electricity available to the UK economy starts to decline, the trend rate of productivity slows sharply.” The analysis indicates that the UK’s electricity capacity has decreased by 21% since 2005, leading to weak economic growth and high energy prices. Furthermore, a report by the Climate Change Committee highlighted that the potential economic benefits of net zero are “uncertain” and could even be negative. The findings raise concerns about the UK’s position in global GDP-per-person rankings, with predictions of falling behind Poland and South Korea by the next decade.
Four firms dominate UK pub market
According to Gerald Edelman, four companies dominate 27% of the UK’s pub market, with JD Wetherspoon leading at 8.9%. Wetherspoon operates 800 pubs across the UK and Ireland, benefiting from a hybrid model where food sales accounted for 36% of its revenue in 2020-2021. Following Wetherspoon is Mitchells & Butlers, which holds 7.2% of the market and runs approximately 1,784 establishments, including notable brands like Toby Carvery and All Bar One. The company has shifted its focus from beer to food, with 50% of sales now coming from meals. Greene King and Stonegate Pub Company complete the top four, holding 6.2% and 4.4% of the market, respectively. The report indicates that market concentration is likely to rise as major players pursue aggressive mergers and acquisitions.
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The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
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Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!