Business news 5 December 2024
OECD increases 2025 growth forecast. Bailey expects four rate cuts in 2025. Services sector confidence falls to two year low. Lawyers call for ‘considerable thought’ on employment rights. Plus markets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
OECD increases 2025 growth forecast
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects the UK economy to grow at a slower pace this year than it had previously forecast. However, it has upgraded its growth forecast for next year. The think-tank expects 0.9% growth this year, down from 1.1%, while 2025 is forecast to see growth of 1.7%, up from 1.2%. Looking further ahead, it forecasts that the economy will grow by 1.3% in 2026. Globally, GDP is predicted to grow by 3.2% this year and 3.3% in 2025. Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the upgraded forecast for 2025 “will mean the UK is the fastest growing European economy in the G7 over the next three years.” The OECD said that UK interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer due to measures set out in the Budget which are expected to push up inflation. The organisation predicts that inflation will come in at 2.7% next year, having previously pointed to a rate of 2.4%.
Bailey expects four rate cuts in 2025
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey says falling inflation means there are likely to be four interest rate cuts next year. Saying that he is confident inflation will soon return to the Bank’s 2% target, Mr Bailey noted that officials expect to deliver four quarter point interest rate cuts next year. This would mean the base rate, which is currently at 4.75%, would fall to 3.75% by the end of 2025. Chris Sykes, technical manager at mortgage broker Private Finance, welcomed the comments, saying a 3.75% base rate could see the return of sub 4% home loan rates, while Ravesh Patel, director and senior mortgage consultant at Reside Mortgages, said four rate reductions in 2025 “would signal a significant shift in the mortgage landscape.”
Services sector confidence falls to two year low
Confidence among firms in the services sector has fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years, according to S&P’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI). The index shows that business expectations for the year ahead have hit their lowest level since December 2022. It was also shown that staff numbers fell for the second month in a row in November. Analysts note that the Budget has had an impact on firms’ outlook, with concerns over the decision to increase employers’ National Insurance. S&P’s report said: “Many service sector firms noted a growth headwind due to heightened economic uncertainty and concerns about tax raising measures announced in the Budget.” The overall PMI reading fell to 50.8 in November, down from 52.0 in October on an index where a reading above 50 represents growth. Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said: “The results can be heavily affected by swings in business sentiment, and don’t always show genuine trends in activity,” suggesting that sentiment around the Budget “is likely to have played an outsized role in driving” the results.
Lawyers call for ‘considerable thought’ on employment rights
The Employment Lawyers Association (ELA) says the Employment Rights Bill requires “considerable thought” to avoid “swamping business” with costs or obligations. The ELA, a group of 7,000 lawyers, warned that proposed changes to zero-hour contract “will grant workers rights that are so difficult to navigate that this may well impact their ability to be enforced,” while placing difficult “recurring burdens on employers.” The lawyers added that the wording of the fire and rehire policy “means that businesses that previously survived may now not be able to act until it is too late and then go under.” The ELA says the new rights could drive an increase in claims and see a surge in tribunals.
Brits could see £21k tax hike
While those with savings and those expecting their salary to keep up with inflation can expect their tax bill to climb by around £2,021 in 2025, those buying a house or likely to inherit some money could end up paying an estimated £21,071 extra in tax. Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown, says taxes will rise as income tax and National Insurance thresholds are frozen until 2028, meaning pay rises could pull people into the tax net or push them into a higher band. She added: “At that point, it’s not just more income tax you have to worry about, but potentially higher rates on everything from dividend tax to capital gains tax, and a shrinking personal savings allowance.” She also notes that the end of the tax break on stamp duty and a rise in the capital gains tax rate for stocks and shares investors will have an impact on tax bills.
HMRC explains tax rules for online sellers
Starting next month, HMRC will require online sales platforms like eBay and Vinted to share sales data, although they assert that “absolutely nothing has changed for online sellers.” The tax office has clarified that casual sellers of unwanted items will not owe tax. However, those who sell at least 30 items or earn approximately £1,700 may need to register for self assessment. The changes aim to ensure sellers understand their tax responsibilities, with HMRC collaborating with the platforms to provide guidance. Angela MacDonald, HMRC’s second permanent secretary and deputy chief executive officer, emphasised: “We cannot be clearer – if you are not trading and just occasionally sell unwanted items online – there is no tax due.”
Markets
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.28% at 8335.81 and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 0.83% at 4919.02. Overnight in the US the S&P 500 rose 0.61% to 6086.49 and the NASDAQ rose 1.3% to 19735.12.
The S&P 500 hit a 56th record this year, buoyed by outperforming tech and sliding 10-year Treasury yields. The Magnificent Seven closed at a record as well, led by Nvidia. Salesforce’s better-than-expected, AI-fueled results helped the Nasdaq too.
This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.2725 and €1.2078. On Commodities, Oil (Brent) is at $72.34 & Gold is at $2650.
Bitcoin went above the significant milestone of $100,000 for the first time. Traders have been buying up the cryptocurrency ever since Donald Trump’s election win, sending its price soaring by more than 40%. The president-elect has vowed to make America the “the bitcoin superpower of the world”. Yesterday Trump picked Paul Atkins, a crypto champion, to run the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Equity funds rebound following outflows
UK equity funds saw a 41-month streak of outflows come to an end in November, with investors pouring money back into the market. While funds experienced their worst month on record ahead of October’s Budget, the flow reversed last month, with buying for all equity funds hitting a new high of £3.1bn. Data shows that £317m was deposited into UK funds. Fixed income funds saw inflows rise to £764m, while cash into money market funds came in at £131m. Property funds, however, registered their 14th consecutive month of withdrawals, losing £39m in November. Edward Glyn, Calastone’s global head of markets, cautioned that November’s rebound may be a “hiatus rather than a break in the trend,” as no significant catalysts are anticipated to rejuvenate interest in the UK market.
Vodafone-Three £16.5bn merger gets approved
The merger of Vodafone and Three has been approved by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), creating the UK’s biggest mobile network with 27 million customers. The £16.5bn deal can proceed providing the companies agree to invest billions to boost the country’s 5G network and also cap certain mobile tariffs and data for at least three years to protect customers from “short-term” price rises.
Motor finance scandal could hurt the economy
Charlie Nunn, the CEO of Lloyds Banking Group, has warned that the scandal around motor finance deals poses a threat to the UK economy, warning that a court ruling over car loan commissions “creates an investability problem” for the consumer finance sector. This comes after judges ruled that lenders cannot pay commission to a motor finance broker without obtaining the customer’s fully informed consent. With this making it more likely that the Financial Conduct Authority will implement a redress scheme for discretionary commission arrangements, which were banned in 2021, Mr Nunn warned that this means the sector faces a period uncertainty.
Shell
Shell and Norway’s Equinor on Thursday announced plans to combine their British offshore oil and gas assets to create a jointly owned energy company. The joint venture will be established in Aberdeen, Scotland in an effort to sustain fossil fuel production and the security of energy supply in the UK. The companies target to complete the deal by the end of next year, subject to approvals. At that time, the incorporated company is set to become the UK North Sea’s largest independent producer, Shell said.
Frasers
Frasers hailed “another period of progress” during its half-year, but warned weaker consumer confidence in the lead up to the October UK budget will keep a lid on yearly profit. In the 26 weeks to October 27, pretax profit fell by a third to £207.2 million from £310.2 million. Revenue declined 8.3% to £2.54 billion from £2.77 billion. Retail revenue alone was 8.4% lower on-year at £2.46 billion. UK Sports Retail, which includes Sports Direct, suffered a 7.6% revenue decline on-year to £1.37 billion
Latest Insolvencies
Appointment of Administrator – PROJECTS LIMITED
Appointment of Administrator – LIBERTY STEEL EAST EUROPE (HOLDCO) LIMITED
Appointment of Administrator – TEAM TEX (UK) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – TTWP LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – WOSL SPV 1 LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – YGGDRASIL GAMING UK LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – DATAWOOD SERVICES LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – RICHARD UTLEY LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – BROOKSON (5189F) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – NORGH HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – KAPPATURE LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – EDEN JAKE LIMITED
Winding up Order (Companies) – INC (MANAGEMENT OPS) LTD
Appointment of Administrator – AKJ ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – MEWINE LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – GENTLEGAIN LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – GLENBRAE TRADING LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – GRANT AND MCLAREN LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – PRO-TEC AUTOMOTIVE LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – HYNDPARK LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – EUROPA ES LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – RHOSSILI LEISURE LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – SN STRATEGICS LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – VW PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – RAM ESTATE LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – WESTEND UNITED LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – WWIZARD LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – SPIDER ENTERTAINMENT SERVICES LTD
Appointment of Administrator – CYRIL LUFF (METAL DECORATORS) LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – FOX AIR CONDITIONING LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – PURE RENEWABLE SOLUTIONS LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – EASTCOTE BATHROOMS LIMITED
Appointment of Administrator – BAMBINO MIO LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – APTIV LATIN AMERICA HOLDINGS (UK) LLP
Appointment of Liquidators – KEITH VINCENT LIMITED
Appointment of Administrator – PRA WORLD LIMITED
Appointment of Administrator – PROPERTY FINANCE AND LAW LIMITED
Appointment of Administrator – AFAAD INVESTMENT PROPERTIES LTD
Appointment of Administrator – KHH CIRENCESTER LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – CHARBON PROPERTIES LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – J&C DEVELOPMENTS (TUNBRIDGE WELLS) LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – POLKA DOT DOT DOT LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – ZIZAMED LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – KJH MANAGEMENT LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – TOGETHER DESIGN LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – PW GREEN UK LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – MAYWOOD PROJECT MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – STAY HUNGRY LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – VIJAYALAKSHMI LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – BISTROT DELUXE (HOLDINGS) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – CORSTORPHINE & WRIGHT (LONDON) LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – FEFE CONSULTS LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – TENRALD LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – ICON DISPLAY LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – ABC SPORTS MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – COVERT OPERATIONS LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – FAMYQA LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – SPS ETECH LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – NORTHAMPTON UPPERLIMB LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – PARK HOUSE BRADFORD LIMITED
Winding up Order (Companies) – HEMMINGS HOWE ASSOCIATES LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – W&S LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – TECH4U SOLUTIONS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – MEADOWCROFT CARE LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – AGATRANS (FELIXSTOWE) LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – MAGA TREND LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – MALLOY’S CRAFT BUTCHERY 2 LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – HATTONS LEGAL SERVICES LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – INNOVATE PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – HÄNDLER AUTOS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – P. AND R. SERVICES (1983) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – YOUR ACTUARIAL SOLUTION LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – TURBO DIMENSIONS LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – DEROSIER LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – E16 BUSINESS SOLUTIONS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – CHEVIOT RENTALS LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – LARSEN FILMS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – CONSULT LIFT SERVICES LTD.
Appointment of Liquidators – DE VROOMEN DESIGN LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – MK CLINIC LIMITED
Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
- Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
- Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!
And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.