Business news 7 April 2025
Trump’s tariffs threaten UK economy. Globalisation has come to an end. Markets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Please note: on the 19/3/25 CPA moved after 45 years on King Street, to new offices a couple of miles down the road at Profile West, 950 Great West Road, Brentford, TW8 9ES.
Trump’s tariffs threaten UK economy
US import tariffs introduced by Donald Trump are set to inflict a “material hit” to the UK economy, according to KPMG analysis. The trade war is expected to reduce economic growth by 0.8% over the next two years, leaving Britain £21.6bn worse off by 2027. The forecast for 0.8% growth is a reduction on the 1.7% growth previously predicted by KPMG, which also said it had expected growth of 1.4% in 2026. Yael Selfin, KPMG’s chief UK economist, warned: “Ultimately, the main worry is confidence. Trade disruption is bad, but uncertainty is the big unknown.” Meanwhile, a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce shows that 62% of UK companies trading with the US anticipate negative impacts from the tariffs.
Globalisation has come to an end
Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, says the era of globalisation which has resulted in a boom in imports has come to an end after Donald Trump announced new tariffs, including a baseline 10% import duty. This comes after Sir Keir Starmer said that “the world as we knew it has gone” in terms of the global economy and trade. Appearing on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Mr Jones was asked whether globalisation was over, to which he replied: “Yeah, it’s ended, the Prime Minister said that himself… Globalisation as we’ve known it for the last couple of decades has come to an end.” Mr Jones said this means the UK has to “build out” relationships with global allies and also invest in its own economy.
IMF warns of ‘significant risk’ for economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that tariffs announced by Donald Trump pose a “significant risk” to the global economy. The President has announced a baseline 10% tariff of imports into the US, with some countries facing higher rates of up to 50%. Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the IMF, said: “We are still assessing the macroeconomic implications of the announced tariff measures, but they clearly represent a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth.” Meanwhile, analysts at JPMorgan have increased the odds of a global recession this year from 40% to 60%.
US officials play down recession risk
Donald Trump’s advisers have defended the import tariffs announced by the President, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying that despite stock market falls, there is “no reason” to expect a recession, insisting that fluctuations are part of an “adjustment process.” Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, an adviser to the President, said more than 50 countries have contacted Mr Trump to try to negotiate a deal on the tariffs. JPMorgan has predicted a 60% chance of a US and global recession due to the impact of the tariffs which set a baseline 10% levy on imports into the US.
PM plans to shelter businesses from tariffs
Sir Keir Starmer has committed to protecting British businesses from the impact of US tariffs, saying: “We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm.” The Prime Minister emphasised the need for the UK to adapt to changing global dynamics, arguing that “old assumptions can no longer be taken for granted.” He said that while “the idea the state should intervene directly to shape the market has often been derided … we simply cannot cling on to old sentiments when the world is turning this fast.” It has been suggested that ministers may move to cut red tape and ease regulations, as well as offer targeted tax breaks to help out struggling sectors.
Blair urges PM not to hit back at tariffs
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has urged Sir Keir Starmer not to hit back over tariffs on imports into the US, saying: “I don’t think it is in the UK’s best interest to retaliate.” This comes after US President Donald Trump announced a baseline tariff of 10% on imported goods, with some countries facing even higher rates. Mr Trump has also imposed a 25% tariff on all foreign cars. Downing Street said Mr Starmer has discussed the tariffs with the prime ministers of Australia and Italy, with all the leaders agreeing that “an all-out trade war would be extremely damaging.” The Prime Minister’s spokesperson said Mr Starmer “has been clear the UK’s response will be guided by the national interest.”
Tariff timing ‘couldn’t be worse’
Experts have warned that US President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on goods from the UK will add to a challenging time for the retail sector and could drive up prices. Jacqui Baker, partner and head of retail at RSM UK, said the tariffs “would in themselves be a blow to the retail industry, but the timing couldn’t be worse as they collide with post-budget headwinds,” adding that the tariffs “create another layer of uncertainty, which will impact purchasing decisions, future supply chains and ultimately hit already squeezed margins.” The British Retail Consortium says retailers were already facing increased costs from higher National Insurance contributions and the packaging tax, and Sophie Michael, head of retail and wholesale at BDO, has warned that the introduction of tariffs “will put a further squeeze on their margins.”
Starmer mulling economic reset
Keir Starmer is reportedly preparing a rethink of the Government’s economic policy in response to the tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, with it suggested that the Prime Minister and Chancellor Rachel Reeves could consider increasing taxes or changing their fiscal rules to allow more borrowing. Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the extent to which the US tariffs “change the economic situation in ways that could not have been predicted,” gives officials “permission to do things that were not politically doable otherwise.” He added: “And if this is an economic crisis, it changes what is the appropriate policy response.”
Trump’s tariffs make tax hikes inevitable
Andrew Grice in the Independent on Sunday said that while it was “highly likely” that the tax hikes were on the cards for October’s Budget, tariffs announced by President Trump mean a tax hike is “inevitable.” He highlights that the Prime Minister is reluctant to break Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, National Insurance and VAT, but notes that there are plenty of other ways to increase taxes, suggesting that extending the freeze on tax allowance and thresholds “will surely happen.” Mr Grice argues that there is a case for increasing income tax for the highest earners and suggests that the Chancellor could revive plans to close tax loopholes.
Firms express fears over NI hike
The new tax year has begun, bringing a £25bn National Insurance increase into force. Employers will now pay a 15% tax rate on salaries, up from 13.8%, with the threshold reduced to £5,000 from £9,100 and frozen for three years. This change is expected to affect nearly a million employers. James Smith from ING noted that firms with average salaries could see a 27% rise in tax payments, adding: “Survey after survey have shown it has lowered hiring intentions.” The retail sector is expected to be among the hardest hit, with British Retail Consortium chief executive Helen Dickinson saying the NI hike coupled with the new packaging tax in October means retailers’ costs will have “spiralled” by £7bn in a single year. Federation of Small Businesses policy chair Tina McKenzie says the business tax burden “is at its highest for seventy years,” adding that The rise in employer National Insurance, alongside extra legislation in the Employment Rights Bill, “means that both the cost and risk of giving someone a job are increasing. The result of that will be fewer jobs.” Muniya Barua, deputy chief executive at BusinessLDN, has warned that the NI increase “will weigh on businesses… at a time when they are facing higher costs, above target inflation and rising trade barriers due to US tariffs.”
NI hike will see firms cut recruitment
A poll by recruitment company Reed shows that 46% of companies are cutting recruitment because of a hike in National Insurance that will see employers’ contributions rise from 13.8% to 15%. The survey, which included 254 companies representing more than 260,000 employees, saw almost two-thirds say they are concerned about the changes. On average, the firms polled expect annual profits to decrease by 29% due to the change. While 16% have started making redundancies due to the hike, 19% are postponing or cancelling salary reviews and 22% are having to make budget cuts. James Reed, chairman and CEO of the Reed Group, reiterated a previous warning that the increase in employers’ National Insurance was “a tax on jobs,” adding: “These are tough times for companies that want to hire and expand and this will feed through into weaker economic growth.”
25k jobs lost since the Budget
Analysis shows that employers have cut 25,000 jobs in the five months since the October Budget, with this equal to 160 job losses per day or one every nine minutes. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects unemployment to hit 1.6m this year, with this 160,000 higher than it forecast at the Budget. This comes as businesses warn that the hike to National Insurance contributions could mean job losses, with the rate for employers increasing from 13.8% to 15% and the earnings threshold being reduced from £9,100 to £5,000. Shevaun Haviland of the British Chambers of Commerce said the NI hike was members’ “number one” concern.
Construction sector contracts
The UK’s construction industry shrank last month, according to S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI. While the index came in at 46.4 in March compared to 44.6 in February, it remains below the 50 mark which divides growth and contraction. Total new orders declined for the third month in a row and just 40% of firms expect output to rise in the coming 12 months. Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said “sharply reduced order volumes continued to weigh on overall workloads,” while a “lack of new projects, alongside pressure on margins from rising payroll costs, led to hiring freezes and the non-replacement of departing staff.” The all-sector PMI, which combines the services, manufacturing and construction industries, rose to 51 in March from 50 in February, with the increase driven by the strong performance of the services industry.
Government eases electric car rules
The Government is taking steps to support the car industry by relaxing regulations on the transition to all-electric vehicles. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said the Government aims to “protect and create jobs” while maintaining its commitment to a 2030 ban on petrol and diesel cars. Ministers plan to ease mandates on manufacturers, allowing smaller firms to continue producing petrol cars beyond the deadline.
Manufacturer warns of ‘restrictive’ apprentice levy
Sue Partridge, the head of Airbus’ Bristol factory, has voiced concern over the apprenticeship levy, saying that it is too “restrictive.” Urging ministers to make it easier for smaller businesses to hire trainees, she warned that smaller firms “can’t necessarily afford” to take on apprentices due to “the way things are structured” with the apprenticeship levy. Ms Partridge said it would be a “win-win” if Airbus could pass some of the high calibre candidates that apply to join the aerospace manufacturer to other firms. She also said the levy could be utilised to “reskill” existing staff.
Markets
On Friday, the FTSE 100 closed down 4.95% at 8054.98 and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 4.60% at 4878.31. Over in the US the S&P 500 dropped 5.97% to 5074.08 and the NASDAQ fell 5.82% to 15587.79.
Asian stockmarkets fell sharply this morning after officials in the Trump administration defended the imposition of his craily calculated tariffs. China’s CSI 300 index was down 7%; in Japan, the Nikkei 225 declined by 7.83%.Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was down a steep 13.22%.
And the stampede from global equities is gathering momentum this morning as investors switched into haven assets as the fallout from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs set in and they realised this wasn’t just a negotiating tactic. US Wall Street forecasters are predicting further drops as they tempering their bullish views on US equities and are pricing in a recession.
Global equities have surrendered almost $10 trillion in value since “Liberation day”.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon urged a quick resolution to the uncertainties sparked by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and warned against a potentially “disastrous” fragmentation of the global economy.
Mr Trump however brushed off concerns, saying “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something”.
This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.285 and €1.173. On Commodities, Oil (Brent) is at $62.85 & Gold is at $3026. On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is currently down 4.8% at 7667 and the Eurostoxx 50 is down 6.25% at 4574.
On Friday President Donald Trump said he has decided to extend the deadline for Chinese firm ByteDance Ltd. to divest TikTok’s US operations and give his administration more time to negotiate.However, China is said to have put a hold on the sale after the tariff hit.
In more evidence of his break with Trump, Elon Musk said he hopes for a “zero-tariff” system between the US and Europe that would effectively create “a free trade zone”
Trader fear index hits stress test buffer
A threshold measuring whether British banks can cope with a global trade war has been triggered, with new tariffs on imports into the US driving up the VIX, an index monitoring traders’ expectations of volatility on the US stock market. The index briefly hit the point at which Bank of England’s stress tests kick in after China retaliated by imposing matching levies on imported US goods. The Bank of England’s stress test covers Britain’s seven biggest banks and building societies and gauges whether they can weather “a range of adverse shocks.”
US uncertainty could boost UK IPOs and investment
Investment bank Cavendish says companies could look to London for listings and investment due to volatility in the US. The broker told shareholders it has a “solid pipeline of transactions in train,” including IPOs. Data shows that just 16 new companies listed in the UK last year, with this down from 20 in 2023 and 42 in 2022. Cavendish said it is “cautiously optimistic” that sentiment towards UK and European equities “may finally be turning” after a “challenging period,” adding that risks to US equities “have begun to prompt a reappraisal of diversification, driving a rotation from the US to European and UK equities.”
Families expect to pay £1,272 for Easter breaks
A poll shows that 38% of people have a break planned for Easter, and while those without children expect to spend £863 on average, those planning an Easter break with children expect to spend around £1,272. The survey for MyVoucherCodes shows that 25% of respondents are going on a UK-based trip, while 13% are opting to travel abroad.
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Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!