Business news 7 July 2025
Economic crime, hiring confidence, UK investment, employment rights, taxes, construction, AI, consumer confidence, pensions, markets, insolvencies & more in a bumper business news summary from stories over the weekend that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
👮Economic crime costs UK £290bn annually
A recent parliamentary report has revealed that the cost of economic crime in the UK exceeds £290bn annually, representing 17.5% of GDP, which is equivalent to the total health and education budgets combined. The report highlights that HMRC has not imposed fines on any offshore tax evaders in the past five years, and over 170 properties valued at £2.5bn have been acquired through suspicious means. Additionally, it notes that a quarter of Serious Fraud Office cases involve companies from the UK’s Overseas Territories. The report suggests that addressing tax evasion and promoting asset recovery could be effective solutions, but progress remains slow, particularly as five overseas territories failed to meet a deadline for establishing company ownership registers, potentially leading to a constitutional conflict with the UK.
💁Hiring confidence hits 13-year low
Hiring confidence among UK employers has reached its lowest point in 13 years, according to BDO’s Business Trends barometer. The report highlights that the rise in national insurance, which adds £20bn annually to employers’ costs, has led to a “prolonged caution from UK business.” Many firms are hesitant to recruit due to policy uncertainty and the prospect of further tax increases in the autumn budget. Scott Knight, head of growth at BDO, commented: “We’re seeing early signs of recovery in business output,” primarily driven by the services sector. “But as we all know, we can’t rely on good weather forever.” A separate survey by the CBI found optimism among financial services bosses has fallen sharply, with many signalling that they plan to cut headcount in the coming months.
💰UK overtakes US and Japan as most attractive country to invest in
According to Deloitte’s latest survey of chief financial officers, Britain has surpassed the United States and Japan as he most attractive investment destination. The survey, which included responses from 61 of the UK’s largest companies, revealed that 13% of executives consider the UK very or somewhat attractive for investment. “These results reveal a shift in sentiment”, Richard Houston, senior partner and chief executive of Deloitte UK, said. “This renewed confidence, coupled with a rise in risk appetite…underscores the considerable investment potential the UK offers.” The positive outlook marks a significant change from the previous year when other regions were preferred over the UK. However, geopolitical fears continue to be the primary concern for CFOs.
💁Labour to ban replacing sacked staff with agency workers
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has announced significant amendments to the Employment Rights Bill aimed at preventing the exploitation of workers through fire and rehire tactics. In an op-ed for the Mirror, Rayner stated: “We promised to call time on scandals like P&O and with this amendment we are removing any doubt.” The new legislation will prohibit companies from replacing dismissed employees with agency staff, ensuring that workers cannot be forced into worse conditions. The move follows the controversial sacking of 800 seafarers by P&O Ferries in March 2022. The Bill also aims to ban zero hours contracts and provide basic protections for all workers from their first day on the job. Over 15m people are expected to benefit from these changes.
🍴Job losses soar in hospitality sector
Rachel Reeves’s tax increases have resulted in 69,000 job losses in the hospitality sector, with predictions that up to 200,000 more could follow if the changes to employers’ national insurance contributions are not reversed. Kate Nicholls, chairman of UKHospitality, said: “If we carry on with these trends…we are looking at 150,000-200,000 fewer workers in hospitality.” The sector has seen the worst job losses since the pandemic’s onset, with many businesses reducing trading hours and cutting staff. Nicholls has urged Sir Keir Starmer to take action against these “socially regressive” tax hikes, which she believes are unsustainable for entry-level jobs.
💰Most think Labour will hike taxes on working people
Recent YouGov research highlights significant public scepticism regarding the Government’s manifesto commitments, particularly concerning tax increases. Despite assurances from the Chancellor, 35% of respondents believe action on income tax, VAT, or NICs is “very likely,” with 37% considering it “fairly likely.” Even among Labour supporters, 70% expect tax hikes, while 84% of Tories share this sentiment. Ben Zaranko from the IFS think-tank warned that the scale of potential tax increases could mirror last year’s record £41bn package, stating: “It’s not hard to imagine a world where they are of a ballpark similar scale to last autumn.” Deutsche Bank analysis suggests the fiscal gap Rachel Reeves must address could range from £18bn to £32bn, indicating that breaking the Labour manifesto may become unavoidable if the shortfall exceeds £20bn.
💰Starmer warned off wealth taxes
The Prime Minister’s director of policy delivery has warned the Government against bringing in a wealth tax amid concern that recent levies on the rich are undermining economic growth. According to the Telegraph, Liz Lloyd is pushing back on ideas coming from more left-wing elements within Downing Street, such as Stuart Ingham, who heads the policy unit at No 10. Sir Keir Starmer is set to bring in new economic advisers as his team looks to take back control from the Treasury following criticism that it was dictating Government policy. Meanwhile, the FT reports that most tax experts think high earners and the wealthy are likely to bear the brunt of any further tax increases, with further changes to CGT and IHT the main concerns
📈Markets
📈On Friday, the FTSE 100 closed flat at 8822.91 and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 1.02% at 5288.81. While over in the 🦅US markets were closed for the 4th July.
💷This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.359 and €1.158 .
📈On Commodities, 🛢 Oil (Brent) is at $68.5 & 💰Gold is at $3309.
📈On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is currently flat at 8822 and the Eurostoxx 50 is up 0.3% at 5305.
Trump says he plans to announce “take it or leave it” trade deals and deliver tariff warnings on Monday, as countries negotiated through the weekend to avoid the highest taxes on their exports to the US (to kick in on 1st August). Trump has singled out the BRICS economies who he labelled as Anti-American and warned of an additional 10% levy on any country aligning with them.
💷Gilt market turmoil prompts Bank action
The recent sell-off in UK government bonds has raised concerns about the stability of the gilt market, prompting the Bank of England to reconsider its current pace of gilt sales. Sonali Punhani, UK economist at Bank of America, said: “At a time when the Bank is trying to ease monetary conditions by cutting rates, quantitative tightening (QT) could be diluting the pass-through of cuts by tightening monetary conditions.” The current bond sales are set at £100bn annually, with a potential reduction to £80bn from October. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, indicated that discussions on the continuation of QT would take place, but denied that QT was causing the steepening of the yield curve.
💰Unlocking the gold mine of UK assets
Louis Taylor, chief executive of the British Business Bank, has urged UK pension funds to seize the “gold mine of opportunity” in private companies as they prepare to invest hundreds of millions in venture capital. He stressed the need for a “Festival of Britain on the innovation economy” to enhance understanding of the UK’s strengths. Taylor stated: “If everybody appreciated properly the opportunities there are in the UK, nobody would need mandating.” The British Business Bank, with a total capital of £25.6bn, aims to raise hundreds of millions from pension funds for its new British Growth Partnership, which is set to make its first investment this year. Critics argue that fund managers should prioritise returns for savers over national economic goals.
🏗 Construction
UK Construction Activity fell for the sixth month running in June, according to the latest monthly survey of industry purchasing managers. There was a small rising in housing activity but commercial construction and civil engineering continued to decline. At 48.8 in June, the headline UK Construction PMI was up from 47.9 in May.
Staffing numbers continued to decrease due to higher employment taxes set by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, while material costs rose. Matt Swannell from EY ITEM Club noted that “recent PMI readings appear to have been overly pessimistic,” suggesting that while the sector faces challenges, there are signs of resilience.
💻AI threatens graduate job market
As artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly takes over entry-level tasks, recent graduates are facing a challenging job market. Connor Myers, a student at the University of Exeter, points out that major firms like Deloitte and EY have reduced their graduate recruitment by 18% and 11%, respectively. According to Adzuna, entry-level job opportunities in finance have plummeted by 50.8%, while IT services have seen a 54.8% decrease. Myers notes: “The last thing a person needs aged 21 is for an AI model to take the job they were told their degree was essential for.” The shift raises questions about the value of degrees in fields like accountancy, as AI continues to reshape the employment landscape.
🏖Consumer confidence soars ahead of summer
According to the KPMG Consumer Pulse poll, 70% of UK households are planning a summer holiday, reflecting a growing sense of financial security. The survey, conducted with 3,000 adults in early June, revealed that 58% feel financially secure, a rise of three percentage points from the previous quarter. Linda Ellett, head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG UK, noted: “Consumer confidence has rallied over the last quarter and only a fifth of consumers now feel insecure about their financial circumstance.” However, despite this optimism, 51% of respondents still believe the economy is worsening, primarily due to rising grocery and utility costs.
🚘Over 23m people expect redress for car finance mis-selling
According to a recent poll by Slater & Gordon, over 23m people in the UK are anticipating compensation for mis-sold car loans, with 45% of adults believing they may be eligible for a payout. The surge in public interest has been fuelled by extensive advertising from claims management companies, raising awareness of potential redress for up to 30m finance packages arranged between 2007 and 2021. Car finance firms, including Lloyds and Barclays, have set aside £1.7bn for claims, but Moody’s estimates the total compensation could reach £30bn, comparable to the PPI scandal. The Supreme Court is expected to rule this month on a case that could expand the number of eligible claimants, while the Financial Conduct Authority is proposing a formal redress scheme to streamline
💰Lord Kinnock backs raid on the rich
Lord Kinnock, who led the Labour Party between 1983 and 1992, has come out in support of a wealth tax, alongside a raft of unions. Lord Kinnock told Sky News a 2% tax on assets worth more than £10m could help raise about £10bn a year for the Treasury. Unison, Unite, Usdaw and the FBU have all joined calls for a wealth tax as a means to raise cash to fund the welfare state and invest in public services. According to a report by the Wealth Tax Commission, around 20,000 taxpayers would be eligible to pay the wealth tax if the threshold was set at £10m. But experts including Dan Neidle, the founder of Tax Policy Associates, said the proposal was “fantasy politics” and that the wealthy would simply move overseas. Downing Street is said to be cautious about the idea with Liz Lloyd, a senior policy figure in No 10, reportedly questioning whether existing wealth taxes were harming Sir Keir Starmer’s “mission” of growing the economy.
🏢Consulting sector set for rebound
The UK consulting industry is projected to recover this year, following a stagnant 2024 with revenues remaining at £20.4bn. The Management Consultancies Association (MCA) anticipates a growth of 3.6% in 2025, driven by companies seeking to enhance efficiency and adopt AI, often resulting in job losses. Tamzen Isacsson, chief executive of the MCA, noted that clients are increasingly focused on “doing more with less” amid ongoing economic pressures. Although this growth is an improvement, it remains significantly slower than the 17% annual growth seen between 2021 and 2023. The MCA’s analysis indicates that demand for consultants will be bolstered by cost-cutting initiatives and heightened cybersecurity needs, particularly following recent cyberattacks. “As long as you have change then there is demand for consultants,” Isacsson stated, highlighting the sector’s resilience.
💰Wealthy residents face exit tax fears
Wealthy individuals in Europe are increasingly facing “exit taxes” as countries like Germany, Norway, and Belgium implement stricter measures to prevent high-net-worth residents from emigrating. These taxes impose a one-off charge on the value of assets when leaving, aimed at curbing the trend of affluent citizens relocating to low-tax nations such as Switzerland and the UAE. A report by Henley & Partners predicts that 16,500 millionaires will leave Britain by 2025, up from 10,800 last year. Chris Etherington from RSM noted that while the UK has historically resisted such taxes, pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to consider an exit tax may grow if capital gains tax rates are increased.
⏱OBR faces scrutiny over £30bn deficit
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is set to evaluate the Government’s fiscal rules amid fears of a potential £30bn deficit in public finances this autumn. The upcoming fiscal risks and responsibilities report will examine the Government’s investment goals, which are tied to the “net financial debt” rule. A downgrade in productivity forecasts could lead to an £18bn shortfall, compelling Chancellor Rachel Reeves to seek new tax revenues or implement spending cuts. Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, remarked: “The OBR’s assessment of productivity growth may yet be the straw that breaks the Chancellor’s fiscal framework.” The OBR has acknowledged an overestimation of future growth, now predicting a figure of 1.1%, which could further impact public finances.
🗺 Labour signs up to UN’s high-tax manifesto
Labour has initiated plans for increased taxes on the wealthy, alcohol, and fossil fuels by committing the UK to a new United Nations agreement. The move marks a significant shift in policy, as Sir Keir Starmer aims to implement measures that contrast sharply with US President Donald Trump, who withdrew from the same pact. The Sevilla Commitment, agreed at a five-day summit in Spain last week, specifically mentions taxes on “high net-worth individuals”, as well as tobacco and alcohol, natural resources and pollution. Budgeting and taxation would also be “gender-responsive” and countries should also consider the environment, biodiversity, climate, and food security when setting their budgets, the agreement states. Gareth Davies, the shadow Treasury minister, accused Labour of “outsourcing tax policy to organisations that don’t reflect the priorities of the British people” and making Labour’s tax hikes harder to reverse. But a government spokesman said: “This agreement is not legally binding. UK tax-setting powers are for the Chancellor and the Chancellor alone.”
🤠 Cowboy agencies face tax crackdown
Recruitment agencies known for tax evasion are under scrutiny as new laws come into effect. The Treasury aims to recover hundreds of millions of pounds in unpaid taxes, particularly targeting those using umbrella companies to exploit loopholes. James Murray, Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, said: “The days of using umbrella companies to wilfully avoid paying hundreds of millions of pounds in tax are coming to an end.” From April 2026, agencies will be held accountable for ensuring correct tax payments, with potential liabilities extending to the end clients if no agency is involved. The initiative is expected to generate nearly £900m in the first year and approximately £3bn over five years, addressing the unfair advantage gained by dishonest operators.
👞Clarks cuts over 1,200 jobs
Clarks has announced the layoff of over 1,200 employees due to “challenging market conditions” following a significant decline in sales. The 200-year-old shoe retailer’s revenue dropped from £994.5m in 2023 to £901.3m, resulting in pre-tax losses of £39.2m for the second consecutive year. The company’s headcount decreased from 7,413 to 6,161 during the period. The firm aims to restructure its operations to ensure sustainable growth in 2025.
🍏 Apple pays £300m corporation tax in Britain
After its operating profits surpassed £1bn in 2024, Apple’s tax contribution rose by nearly 62% from £188m to £304m. Operating profits rose from £822m to £1.2bn while revenues were up 35% to £4.7bn.
💷Loan charge scandal: HMRC punished contractors whilst giving companies 85% discounts
Information gleaned from a FoI request suggests HMRC gave large companies involved in the loan charge scandal 85% discounts on their settlements whilst punishing independent contractors with life-changing bills. The agreements were revealed in Parliament by Conservative MP, Greg Smith, during Treasury Questions last week, but HMRC denies the claims. The loan charge was introduced in 2017 to target contractors who were paid through non-taxable loans rather than salaries. It left 50,000 self-employed workers with crippling tax bills and has been linked to 10 suicides. But in 2015, large companies were able to pay just 15% of what was owed. The information was revealed in minutes of a meeting from 2019 between Lord Amyas Morse, who led the loan charge review of the same year, and the leader of the latest review, Ray McCann. Mr Smith, co-chairman of the Loan and Taxpayer Fairness APPG, said: “It’s absolutely staggering to discover that just a year before the loan charge was introduced to Parliament, that HMRC agreed a deal allowing large companies to settle for just 15% of what HMRC said they owed, for use of similar arrangements.” He continued: “Regardless of what Ray McCann recommends in his report on settlement terms, all those facing the loan charge and those pushed to settle to avoid it must all be offered no more than 15% as full and final settlement.”
The Sunday Telegraph
⚠️State pension facing insolvency by 2036
According to the Adam Smith Institute (ASI), Britain’s state pension could face financial unsustainability as early as 2036. The ASI warns that the Treasury is projected to spend more on welfare than it receives from National Insurance contributions within a decade, marking a potential “fiscal crisis moment.” Maxwell Marlow, director of public affairs at the ASI, said: “The latest analysis shows we are taxing workers and firms harder, and suppressing growth, just to keep the State Pension alive for one more year.” Despite recent tax increases, the system’s lifespan has only been extended by one year. The ASI has urged the Government to reconsider the triple lock on pensions, which is deemed increasingly unviable in an ageing society. With demographic shifts indicating a growing dependency ratio, the sustainability of the state pension system is under significant threat.
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➕Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
- Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
- ️Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!
And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just ☎️ call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
️ The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call ☎️ 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
️ The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under ⚖️ legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!