Business news 10 March 2025
Spring Statement, business confidence, rising prices, interest rates, securonomics, business rates, consumers, WFH, markets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Please note: on the 19/3/25 CPA are moving offices after 43 years a little down the road to Profile West, 950 Great West Road, Brentford, TW8 9ES
Spring Statement may target welfare spending
BBC News looks ahead to Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement, which will come alongside the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast on the UK economy which is due on March 26. The OBR forecast is expected to confirm that the Chancellor’s £9.9bn financial buffer has been wiped out. While many analysts have suggested that welfare spending may be targeted, the Chancellor may also reduce the £20,000 tax-free annual limit in cash ISAs in a bid to encourage more people to invest their savings in stocks and shares. While the Spring Statement will deliver spending cuts rather than tax hikes, the Chancellor may extend the freeze on income tax thresholds. Ms Reeves could also detail how international aid funding will be reallocated after the Prime Minister announced that UK defence spending will rise to 2.5% of national income by 2027. The Chancellor has vowed that any economic plans will adhere to “non-negotiable” rules that the Government will not borrow to fund day-to-day public spending and that ministers will get debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament
Business confidence falls again
Confidence among UK firms has fallen to its lowest level in four years, with analysis from BDO showing that optimism has declined for the fifth consecutive month. BDO’s monthly index of confidence across British manufacturing industries fell to 91.4 in January, with this down from 92.2 in December and the lowest level since January 2021. Plans to increase employers’ National Insurance contributions and deliver a higher minimum wage, combined with business rate increases, have hit confidence, while also threatening jobs and pushing up prices. BDO partner Kaley Crossthwaite said businesses will need “continued support” to achieve growth.
Businesses brace for price hikes
Businesses are set to increase prices due to rising wage costs and higher employer National Insurance rates. According to the Office for National Statistics, 49% of companies with ten or more staff plan to raise prices in the coming months. The ONS found that 66% of businesses anticipate rising staffing costs, while 26% are considering job reductions. The ONS’s Business Insights and Impacts survey found that just under a third of firms said they would absorb the hit within profit margins. Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, this week told the Treasury Select Committee that employers might respond to the hike in costs by cutting hiring, reducing hours, or laying off staff. The changes in employer NI contributions, which will rise from 13.8% to 15%, alongside a national living wage increase to £12.21 per hour, are expected to impact the labour market significantly. Oxford Economics predicts a loss of 55,000 jobs and a slight decline in pay growth.
Hiring falls as firms brace for higher costs
Businesses are scaling back hiring and preparing for layoffs due to the £40bn tax increase set out in October’s Budget. The latest report from KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) indicates that the jobs market is contracting, with demand for permanent roles declining for the 18th consecutive month. The report says weaker confidence around the economic outlook and rising payroll costs has led firms to pause hiring. With businesses facing higher costs, many are also considering price increases and cancelling pay rises. Jon Holt, group chief executive and UK senior partner at KPMG, said many companies are treading carefully, with a “wait and see approach to hiring,” while Neil Carberry, chief executive of the REC, has urged the Chancellor to foster growth, saying: “Enabling companies to grow is at the heart of our prosperity.” Meanwhile, a survey by iwoca shows that about 300,000 SMEs plan to reduce their workforce to manage an increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.
Inflation set to remain ‘well above’ target – economist
Inflation is likely to rise to 3.6% this year and remain “well above” the Bank of England’s 2% target until late 2026, according to Edward Allenby, UK economist at Oxford Economics. He says that several factors are set to drive inflation, including measures set out in October’s Budget such as the hike in employers’ National Insurance contributions and the 6.7% increase in the national living wage. He warns that SMEs are expected to be hit especially hard by higher costs, potentially leading to staff reductions and price increases.
Brokers expect interest rates to rise
A poll of 300 UK mortgage brokers shows that 69% expect interest rates to be higher than the current level of 4.5% by the start of 2026. The survey, by Butterfield Mortgages, saw 28% say the base rate would hit 5.25% by the beginning of next year. It was also shown that 67% expect interest rates and the cost of borrowing to be the key factor in the performance of the property market in the year ahead. Almost two-thirds (64%) of brokers said changes to stamp duty thresholds would make the property investment landscape “more complicated to navigate.”
UK industry set for ‘securonomics’ boost
With defence spending set to be increased from 2.3% of GDP to 2.5% by 2027, Anne Ashworth in the Mail on Sunday explores the concept of ‘securonomics’ – policies which aim to make Britain more secure and more resilient against future shocks. She says higher defence budgets “could be the spur to ground-breaking innovation,” with Carl Stick, manager of the Rathbone Income fund, noting that “the technologies that have changed our world such as the jet engine, radar, GPS systems – and the internet – were all born from military necessity.” Ms Ashworth highlights the potential benefits for UK manufacturing, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves having pledged to “fire up Britain’s industrial base and unleash its potential to keep the country safe.”
Businesses set for £1bn rates hit
Shops, restaurants, and pubs in England are set to face an additional £1bn in taxes due to a reduction in business rate discounts from 75% to 40% starting next month. According to Ryan, a tax and software firm, the change will disproportionately impact London businesses, which will contribute £309.7m to the extra tax burden. Alex Probyn, a property tax expert at Ryan, said this “comes on top of a tsunami of other rising costs, making it a complex and challenging environment” for businesses. The Government has vowed to lower business rates for smaller firms by 2026. However, the average business rates for retail, leisure, and hospitality firms are projected to rise by 140%, with average shop bills rising from £3,589 to £8,613 for the 2025/26 tax year.
Wealth climbs but households feel poorer
Six in ten of UK households do not feel financially comfortable despite average wealth having risen by 12% in the last year, according to survey from wealth manager St James’s Place. While the mean household has seen its assets – savings, investments and possessions – rise from £113,154 to £126,483 over the last year, 58% say their finances are in a worse state than they were a year ago. Of these, 70% say inflation has had the biggest impact. The poll also found that younger people are more likely to have a financial plan in place, with more than half over those under 35 planning ahead compared to just 28% of those over 55.
Cash concerns have hit spending
Research from consumer group Which? shows that 28% of people have been put off from making a major purchase due to concerns over household finances in the last month. The monthly consumer insight tracker also found that 51% of people had adjustments – such as cutting back on essentials, dipping into savings, selling possessions or borrowing – to cover essential spending, such as utility bills and groceries. This was up from the 45% who said the same the month before. While 31% of respondents expect their finances to worsen, just 23% believe they will improve. Rocio Concha, director of policy and advocacy at Which?, said: “Our research shows that low consumer confidence is having an impact on household spending.”
Sickness benefits to cost a quarter of income tax by 2030
Analysis by think-tank Policy Exchange suggests that one pound in every four paid in income tax will go towards sickness benefits by the end of the decade. While the report shows that Britain’s sickness benefits bill is set to rise to £100bn by the 2030, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that income-tax receipts will total £392.1bn in 2029/30. Policy Exchange has urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Liz Kendall, the Work and Pensions Secretary, to reduce the cost of health and disability benefits for working-age adults, suggesting that ministers should strip under-30s of personal independence payments unless they seek work or training. The OBR says the cost of these payments is set to rise from just under £34bn this financial year to almost £50bn in 2029/30.
Bank boss backs WFH
Mark Mullen, chief executive of Atom Bank, has criticised the trend of employers enforcing office attendance, labelling it “old-fashioned command-and-control thinking.” He argues that the rise of digital technology and AI has transformed work dynamics and suggests that mandatory attendance does not enhance productivity or morale. Considering suggestions that remote work means decreased productivity, he said: “I don’t buy it, show me the evidence.”
Firms urged to increase office appeal
With a number of the world’s largest companies moving away from remote and hybrid working, Alex Morgan, founding partner at Morgan Real Estate, says ensuring there is space for everyone in offices “really is the bare minimum in a series of steps needed to bring workers back in full-time.” He suggests that “an environment that employees want to be in; that outguns the comfort of the no-commute or the glare of management, will be key in attracting and retaining talent over the longer-term.” While analysis from JLL in 2024 found that half of all employees said they were commuting to the office fewer than three days a week, KPMG’s CEO Outlook survey indicates that 83% of UK CEOs expect employees to work in-person five days a week within three years.
Reeves could extend threshold freeze
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has not ruled out extending the current freeze on income tax bands beyond 2028 in her the Spring Statement, a move which could generate £15bn for the Treasury. Chris Etherington of RSM said: “In one fell swoop it can generate millions for the Exchequer and help balance the books.”
Markets
European stocks were mostly lower Friday, with London outperforming markets in Paris and Frankfurt which declined amid ongoing uncertainty over tariffs
On Friday the FTSE 100 closed flat at 8679.88 and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.94% at 5468.41. Over in the US the S&P 500 started weak but ended up 0.55% at 5770.2 0and the NASDAQ rose 0.7% to 18196.22.
Donald Trump’s shifting trade policies have unsettled US investors, despite exemptions for some Canadian and Mexican goods. The Trump bump has shifted to the Trump slump as he admits the US economy is in transition.
This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.2915 and €1.1888. On Commodities, Oil (Brent) is at $70.5 & Gold is at $2905. On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is currently down 0.38% at 8647 and the Eurostoxx 50 is down 0.7% at 5429.
Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the US economy was “in good shape” despite “elevated” uncertainty adding that officials “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates.
Mark Carney won the race to become Canada’s next prime minister, putting the former central banker in charge of the country just as Trump’s administration threatens its economic outlook. Carney ran on a platform of fighting back against Trump rather than appeasement. He has vowed to win the trade war and insisted Canada will never become part of the US.
Taiwan Semiconductor’s revenue climbed 39% in the first two months of the year, accelerating from 2024 demonstrating resilient demand for the Nvidia chips that power the AI revolution.
US jobs
US Job Growth was weaker than expected in February though still stable despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to slash the federal workforce. Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January, but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1%.
EU growth
The Eurozone Economy grew slightly more than previously thought in the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates. Gross domestic product from across the single-currency region expanded by 0.2% over the final three months of 2024, slowing from the 0.4% growth registered in the third quarter but ahead of the 0.1% expansion first reported last month. That was the second upwards revision to fourth-quarter data after figures released in January initially claimed that the eurozone economy had stalled.
B Corp firms see revenues rise
Data shows that B Corp-certified small businesses outperformed their peers in 2023/24, with revenue growth of 23.2% compared to the national average of 16.8%. These companies also saw a 9.6% rise in headcount, while broader business hiring declined by 0.5%. The B Corp movement, launched in the US in 2006 and introduced in the UK in 2015, assesses businesses on governance, workers, community, environment, and clients. Despite its success, B Corp has faced criticism for accrediting large multinationals and concerns over greenwashing. In response, it is developing stricter certification standards to ensure consistent performance across areas such as human rights, fair wages, and climate action
Civil Service reform
The government outlined plans to reform the civil service. Pat McFadden, a cabinet minister, said that under-performing officials would be given incentives to leave and performance-related pay would be introduced. He added overall civil service numbers “would and can become smaller”, but he denied comparisons to Elon Musk’s DOGE’s mass firings of federal employees in the US, countering that he just wanted a bigger “bang for our buck”.
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Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
- Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
- Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!
And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.