Business news 11 November 2024
Job market rebound at risk. Parents rush to gift pensions early. Could Labour stomach a trade deal with Trump? UK exports face £22bn tariff threat. The 4 day week, pensions, markets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Job market rebound at risk from NICs rise
The recent increase in National Insurance contributions poses a significant threat to the UK’s hiring rebound. The employment index from BDO showed a slight rise from 95.45 points in September to 96 points in October, marking a reversal after a 15-month decline. However, BDO cautioned that this improvement may be short-lived due to the Chancellor’s decision to raise the employer NICs rate from 13.8% to 15% and lower the payment threshold from £9,100 to £5,000. Kaley Crossthwaite, a partner at BDO, remarked: “The modest uptick in the employment index this month is encouraging… but we are still a long way from a full recovery.”
Parents rush to gift pensions early
Following the Chancellor’s Budget, there has been a notable increase in parents cashing in their tax-free pension portion to gift to their children. Charlotte Ransom, CEO of Netwealth, reported a “four-fold increase in clients doing this,” as many seek tax-efficient ways to transfer wealth amid looming inheritance tax (IHT) changes. Proposed adjustments, including a freeze on the tax-free threshold and the inclusion of pensions in taxable estates from April 2027, are expected to double IHT income for the Treasury by 2030, rising from £7.5bn to £13.9bn. Robert Salter from Blick Rothenberg said that more individuals will now face IHT, prompting families to reassess their financial strategies.
More workers set to face retirement crisis
The boss of a major pension firm has warned that Labour’s hike in employer National Insurance contributions will prompt companies to reduce pension contributions, pushing more workers into a retirement crisis. Jamie Fiveash, the chief executive of Smart Pension, also said the increase will make it harder for the Government to increase minimum auto-enrolment payments because businesses will be unable to shoulder extra costs. Analysis by Phoenix reveals just one in seven workers is making large enough pension contributions to be able to maintain their living standards into retirement. Fiveash continued: “We’ve got a significant savings gap already and we are heading towards a crisis for people that think they’re saving enough and they’re not.”
Reeves to unveil pension reforms
Rachel Reeves is set to announce pension reforms aimed at directing funds into infrastructure and private businesses during her Mansion House speech in London. The Chancellor aims to highlight the potential for growth through private sector investment and partnerships with global economies.
Could Labour stomach a trade deal with Trump?
As the world considers the implications of President Trump’s policy on tariffs, Daniel Hannan suggests in the Sunday Telegraph that the move might push Labour to embrace Brexit. Hannan says he’s no advocate for tariffs and doubts whether Sir Keir Starmer’s government would want to alienate Brussels by seeking exemptions, but in order to protect Britain’s biggest export market, Labour should in fact go further and pursue a US-UK trade accord, even if that meant diverging further from EU standards. An editorial in the same paper agrees, stating that Labour should “put country ahead of party” and exert every effort in striking an agreement with the US. “The rewards for success are too great to ignore.” The commentary comes as the Chancellor pledges to promote free and open trade between nations in an upcoming Mansion House speech.
UK exports face £22bn tariff threat
The UK could suffer a £22bn decline in exports if US President Donald Trump enforces a blanket 20% tariff on imports, according to the University of Sussex’s Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP). The economic repercussions could lead to a 0.8% reduction in UK economic output. Meanwhile, the IMF warned that a trade war could shrink the global economy by 7%.
Farmers threaten port blockades
Anger over Labour’s inheritance tax raid has escalated, with farmers threatening to blockade ports and disrupt food supplies to supermarkets. The new Budget plan imposes a 20% inheritance tax on agricultural assets exceeding £1m, with some thresholds potentially reaching £3m. The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) is organising a mass lobby of MPs on November 19, but some farmers are considering more radical actions, including blocking ports. Clive Bailye, the founder of the Farming Forum, the UK’s biggest agricultural online forum, said that some farmers were looking at other actions, “from not taking sewage sludge to not letting food leave the farm or sending livestock to market.” A sewage strike would cause chaos for water-treatment companies. Meanwhile, Labour has been accused of dealing another Budget blow to farmers with plans to introduce a levy on key agricultural imports such as fertiliser in order to meet net zero goals.
Trump win leaves global tax deal ‘in peril’
Experts warn that Donald Trump’s election win jeopardises a global tax deal aimed at curbing profit shifting by multinationals, potentially undermining minimum tax rates and encouraging retaliatory tariffs.
Taxing luxury transport gains support
Recent polling by YouGov, commissioned by Oxfam, indicates overwhelming public support for increasing taxes on luxury transport, with 81% in favour. The survey highlights that 64% of respondents would also support higher taxes on the wealthiest individuals to combat climate change. Chiara Liguori, Oxfam GB’s senior climate justice policy advisor, stated: “The PM urgently needs to do more to provide support to communities already facing the devastating consequences of the climate crisis.”
Daily Mirror
Salary sacrifice schemes to the rescue
With the National Insurance rate set to rise from 13.8% to 15% starting April 6, employers are expected to explore salary sacrifice schemes to mitigate increased costs. Rachel Reeves’s budget changes will also lower the threshold for national insurance contributions from £9,100 to £5,000, potentially raising an additional £122.3bn in tax over five years. Gary Smith from Evelyn Partners noted: “Quite surprisingly, the Chancellor did not announce any changes to salary sacrifice arrangements,” suggesting that many employers may adjust their pension schemes to lessen the financial impact. Salary sacrifice allows employees to make contributions from their gross salary, reducing their taxable income and national insurance contributions. However, it may affect borrowing capacity for mortgages and other loans, as well as statutory maternity or paternity pay.
NICs bill for Tesco will rise by £250m a year, raising price rise fears
The Sunday Times reports that Tesco is facing a £1bn bill for the Chancellor’s increase in national insurance over the course of this parliament. Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons detailed last week that their combined bill would be £1.3bn over the period, leading to increased food prices. The Co-op also raised concerns, as have hundreds of hospitality businesses with the sector estimating nearly £14bn of extra costs will be incurred. Although Tesco may be able to absorb most of the £250m a year increase, its suppliers are less able to cope and will likely increase prices, sending up costs. Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, has criticised Rachel Reeves for failing to publish a tax impact assessment for the rise in NICs, stating: “It is unacceptable that Labour are withholding this critical analysis.”
High street’s death blamed on taxes
James Daunt, the managing director of Waterstones, has attributed the decline of the high street to “egregiously large” tax bills that physical retailers face compared to their online counterparts. He highlighted that the “tax on employment” significantly raises costs for in-person shops, leading to emptier city centres. The situation is exacerbated by higher taxes on prime city centre locations, pushing retailers to close and move online.
Labour clears path for four-day week
Labour has taken significant steps towards implementing a four-day work week, following the Conservative Party’s previous opposition. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner stated that a four-day week would be “no threat to the economy” and that she would not dictate to councils how they run their services. Meanwhile, Transport for London (TFL) has said it would work towards union proposals for a reduced work week for tube drivers in order to avoid strike action. Elsewhere, the Observer’s Joanna Partridge reports on a tightening of flexible working arrangements by private sector employers. But some experts warn that back-to-office mandates could leave companies with less diverse workforces.
Trump warned against meddling with the Fed’s independence
The FT reports on efforts by current and former policymakers to dissuade President Trump from undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve after he intimated at having a more direct say in monetary policy decisions. This comes after Fed chair Jerome Powell said he would not step down if Trump asked him to. But perhaps worrying about whether Trump can fire Powell or not is a case of overlooking recent signalling from Trump’s team – JD Vance recently agreed with congressman Ron Paul’s long-held assessment that the Fed should be reformed, if not scrapped altogether, while representative Thomas Massie, likely a member of Trump’s second administration, introduced the “Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act” in May. This seeks to eliminate the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and its associated banks, as well as repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Elsewhere, former White House adviser and staunch Trump ally Stephen Bannon told Politico he wants an overhaul of the entire structure of the Fed, as a start. It won’t matter whether Powell is fired or not if there’s no Fed to chair.
HMRC seizes over 11m cigarettes
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), supported by Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), seized more than 11m cigarettes in South Armagh last Monday, worth an estimated £6m in duty and taxes. They also seized a number of vehicles, fuel laundering equipment and 400 litres of illegal fuel. Four men, aged between 23 and 33, were arrested and released on bail.
Births to British mothers plummet
The number of children born to British mothers has decreased by 25% over the past 15 years, with births dropping from 538,000 in 2008 to a record low of 403,000 in 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In contrast, births to Indian mothers have surged by 73%, while those to West African and new EU parents have also increased significantly. The total fertility rate in the UK has fallen to 1.44 children per woman, well below the 2.1 needed for population stability. The decline is attributed to factors such as the contraceptive pill, increased female employment, and rising childcare costs
Tax raid risks food security
Critics of Rachel Reeves’ proposed inheritance tax on family farms warn that it could jeopardise Britain’s food security and empower adversaries like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Conservative MP Saqib Bhatti stated: “This disastrous policy makes Britain weaker and makes Putin and Xi Jinping stronger,” highlighting the importance of food security underscored by the war in Ukraine. Fellow Conservative MP Jerome Mayhew echoed these concerns, asserting that changes to Agricultural Property Relief (APR) would harm family farms essential for environmental goals. The National Farmers’ Union president, Tom Bradshaw, warned of a “very real threat to our long-term food security” due to a lack of investment incentives. Despite Reeves claiming that over 70% of farms would be exempt, the NFU argues that two-thirds are at risk of being affected by the tax. Elsewhere, Will White, a farm sustainability coordinator at Sustain, says Labour’s policy “needs to find a way to distinguish between farmers working to provide public goods and nutritious food, and wealthy individuals seeking a tax break.”
JLR’s chief warns of tax troubles
Adrian Mardell, chief executive of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), has expressed concerns regarding the potential impact of Donald Trump’s tariff plans and Rachel Reeves’s tax policies on the automotive giant. He stated: “Everybody hates taxes and tariffs. It’s not anything that we would wish for. But it’s the environment we are in.” JLR, which relies heavily on the US market, is preparing for tariffs that could increase the price of non-US goods by 10%. Additionally, Mardell highlighted the challenges posed by rising taxes in the UK, stating: “The Budget in the UK raised taxes a little bit and there are possibly even more serious issues coming at us.” JLR’s pre-tax profit fell 10% to £398m in the last quarter, but the company remains optimistic about production recovery in the second half of the year.
Trump unlikely to end ‘double taxation’ of Americans overseas
Despite President Donald Trump’s campaign promise to end double taxation for Americans living abroad, experts at Blick Rothenberg warn that significant tax relief is unlikely. John Havard, a consultant at the firm, stated: “The economic cost of taxation for a US citizen living in the UK is unlikely to be materially reduced.” He explained that the UK tax rate often exceeds that of the US, making any potential reforms ineffective. Furthermore, gaining Congressional support for such changes poses a significant challenge, as they would require budget reconciliation, which could reduce revenue for the US Treasury.
UK employers eye staff pension schemes to cut national insurance bills
More companies are considering salary sacrifice schemes to mitigate the impact of increased national insurance contributions, says Nick Bustin, employment tax director at Haysmacintyre.
AI to have relatively modest long-term impact on jobs
The Tony Blair Institute (TBI) has predicted that artificial intelligence (AI) could displace between 1m and 3m private sector jobs in the UK, but the overall rise in unemployment is expected to be in the low hundreds of thousands. The report, titled the Impact of AI on the Labour Market, suggests that while between 60,000 and 275,000 jobs may be lost annually at the peak of disruption, this figure is “relatively modest” compared to the average annual job losses of 450,000 over the past decade. TBI predicts that AI will create new roles, leading to a dynamic labour market. The deployment of AI could also boost GDP by up to 1% in the next five years, potentially rising to 6% by 2035. However, the report warns that the extent of job displacement will depend on future technological developments and government policies.
Reeves targets £354bn local government pension pot
Rachel Reeves is set to announce plans to utilise a £354bn local government pension fund to stimulate the UK economy during her upcoming Mansion House speech. The Chancellor aims to consolidate fragmented local authority schemes, which represent the seventh-largest pension fund globally, and direct more funds into local projects. While Reeves has ruled out creating a single “super fund,” she will encourage consolidation to reduce costs and enhance investment in British infrastructure. Reeves believes that pension funds can achieve better returns by investing more in UK assets, although Treasury sources say she will not threaten tax subsidies to enforce this.
Vistry shares plummet after profit warning
FTSE 100 housebuilder Vistry issued its second profit warning in two months on Friday, revealing that cost overruns in its south division are more severe than initially estimated. Shares fell by 18%, resulting in a £500m loss in company value. An independent review indicated that build costs were understated by approximately 10%, leading to a projected profit reduction of £165m. Vistry now anticipates profits of around £300m for the year, citing “overall pressure” on build cost inflation and an additional £5m cost from increased employer national insurance contributions.
Markets
On Friday, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.84% at X and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 1.01% at 4802.76 as markets digested the prospect of Trump tariffs.
American stocks closed at record highs. The S&P 500 gained 4.7% in over five days (its best weekly performance since last November) & on Friday briefly leapt above 6,000 points for the first time as stocks rallied following Mr Trump’s election victory.
China raised its local government debt ceiling by $840 billion to boost its economy, but investor concerns about a second Trump term’s impact on China persisted.
This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.286 and €1.208. On Commodities, Oil (Brent) is at $72.25 & Gold is at $2622. Bitcoin has gone over $80,000.
China trade surplus with the rest of the world rose to U$785bn in the first 10 months of 2024, an increase of 16% over 2023 and approaching a US$1trn annual surplus.
Tesla
The market capitalisation of Tesla, rose above $1trn for the first time in more than two years.
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Appointment of Liquidators – KINGFISHER HOMES (SOUTH EAST) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – FINURA LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – SEA BEE SHIPPING LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – TECTUS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – FJ FORENSIC CONSULTING LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – RULE ONE TEN LIMITED
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – GLOBIMPEX GROUP LTD
Petitions to wind up (Companies) – HIP HOP LDN LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – CURTIS BOWDEN & THOMAS (HOLDINGS) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – CROSSMILL SECURITIES LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – BROMWICH INSURANCE CONSULTANTS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – KHROME CONSULTING LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – LEGAL AND TECHNICAL ASSESSORS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – M.R. CASBURN ENGINEERING LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – ERP SOLUTIONS CENTRE LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – HARVI MALHI LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – CPMC SURVEYING LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – C&S BLUNDELL LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – WILDGOOSE (MARSTON MONTGOMERY) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – RESOLUTION BY DESIGN LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – MRJS CONTRACTS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – MUTUEL PLAY LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – IMMORTALITY CONSULTING LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – L VAN WYK LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – INTERROBANG CONSULTANTS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – KALALA LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – PENROSE 273 LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – ALCHEMY CONTRACTING & CONSULTANCY LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – DELTATECNIX LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – NOISE SEAL LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – H. & J. FORBES (MIDDLESBROUGH) LTD.
Appointment of Liquidators – A.G.S. ACOUSTIC MATERIALS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – MONITOR ANALYTICS LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – HADDON COURT INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – HEATHBYTE LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – WILFRED ROBINSON (PYEWIPE) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – FLA (HOLDINGS) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – ENVIRONMENTAL REMEDIATION (UK) LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – WHITE KITE PREDICTIVE LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – ARMIKA SOLUTIONS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – CHASE PPM LTD
Appointment of Liquidators – WILDGOOSE HOMES LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – D. M. RAJA LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – PW PICTURES LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – TORNADO UK HOLDINGS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – W F DOYLE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – NEW PIER CAPITAL FINANCE LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – ULTRA TIPS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Appointment of Liquidators – CAER RHUN HALL LIMITED
Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
- Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
- Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!
And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!
Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.