Business news 13 November 2025

The UK economy barely grew in the third quarter — and September actually contracted. For SMEs, that’s the worst possible backdrop ahead of a high-stakes Budget expected to include tax rises, ISA cuts and tighter rules. Business confidence is weakening, housing demand is sliding, cyber risks are rising and new regulations are expanding. Meanwhile, insolvencies keep flowing.

For any business trading on credit, today’s message is simple: this is not the moment to loosen terms. Tighten up, stay vigilant and protect your cashflow.

James Salmon, Operations Director.

1. Economic Stories – GDP disappointment takes centre stage

1.1 UK economy grows just 0.1% in Q3 — below forecast

ONS preliminary figures show UK GDP grew a meagre 0.1% between July and September — half what economists expected (0.2%) and sharply below Q2’s 0.3% and Q1’s 0.7%.

  • September GDP: –0.1% (after August revised to 0.0%)
  • Y/y growth: +1.3%
  • Private consumption: +0.2%
  • Government spending: +0.3%
  • Investment (GFCF): +1.8%
  • Exports: –0.1%
  • Imports: –0.3%

The slowdown was driven by weaker industrial production, especially oil and manufacturing, flat construction and only slight services growth.

Why it matters for SMEs on credit: Slow GDP = slow payments. Expect stretched terms across manufacturing, hospitality, retail supply chains and construction.

1.2 Housing market cools sharply ahead of Budget

RICS reports a sharp drop in buyer demand and new instructions, with new inquiries at –24% in October. Fears over potential stamp duty, CGT and inheritance tax changes are hitting confidence.

Estate agents expect price softening over the next three months, with possible recovery later next year.

Why it matters for SMEs on credit: Housing slowdowns hit trades, home-improvement firms, estate agents, movers and suppliers dependent on consumer projects.

2. SME Stories – confidence falters, resilience tested

2.1 Firms fear a Budget blow

The FSB says nearly 1 in 3 SMEs expect to shrink, sell or shut within 12 months.

  • 86% fear Budget decisions may hurt growth
  • Biggest worries: tax hikes and fuel duty increases

Why it matters: A third of SMEs signalling distress means rising default risk for suppliers on credit terms.

2.2 Start-up exodus ahead?

Virgin Media O2’s Growth Signals report shows 1 in 5 of the UK’s fastest-growing start-ups may relocate abroad by 2028 due to policy uncertainty and lack of scale-up support.

Why it matters: Fast-growing customers can disappear offshore — or collapse — leaving suppliers unpaid.

2.3 Businesses push for tax cuts

At the “Opportunities and Obstacles for Growth” forum, business leaders warned the UK’s tax regime is becoming uncompetitive, pushing wealth overseas.

Why it matters: Less investment = less liquidity = slower payments.

2.4 Firms turn to AI for resilience — but most lack a strategy

Elixirr finds nearly 50% of firms now spend resilience budgets on AI, but 75% lack a unified AI strategy. Regulatory pressure is pushing companies to reassess operational resilience.

Why it matters: Firms without proper AI strategy are prone to service failures and delayed payments.

3. Tax & Government – Budget anxiety intensifies

3.1 Savers face a Budget “double whammy”

Chancellor Reeves may cut the cash ISA allowance from £20,000 to as low as £10,000–£12,000, while also raising income tax by 1p–2p across all bands. Workplace pension tax relief may also be trimmed.

Why it matters: Reduced disposable income = weaker retail demand and slower B2C payments.

3.2 Calls to scrap stamp duty

Experts urge replacing stamp duty with an annual property tax, arguing the current system punishes mobility and depresses GDP. Treasury considering taxes on homes over £500k, CGT changes and even a mansion tax.

Why it matters: Higher property taxes could squeeze consumer spending — key for many SME suppliers.

3.3 Wealthy campaigners demand higher taxes

Patriotic Millionaires call for higher CGT and a new wealth tax raising £36bn per year, arguing public services are underfunded.

Why it matters: If wealth taxes rise, spending by high-income customers may tighten — affecting premium-sector SMEs.

3.4 Unemployment rise raises pension-funding risks ⚠

Economists warn rising unemployment and stalled wages may erode tax receipts just as the triple lock lifts pensions again next year.

Why it matters: Fiscal strain = higher likelihood of future tax rises affecting SME customers.

4. Industry & Regulation – technology, cyber rules & trade shifts

4.1 FCA opts against AI-specific laws

The FCA will regulate AI using existing frameworks such as Consumer Duty and the Senior Managers Regime, expanding “sandboxes” for testing.

Why it matters: AI-based credit scoring, collections and fraud detection will accelerate — meaning stricter scrutiny of SME payment behaviour.

4.2 Cyber breaches could cost firms 4% of turnover

The Government’s Cyber Security & Resilience Bill will allow fines of up to 4% of turnover or £17m, whichever is higher.
Firms must report incidents within 24 hours and submit full reports within 72 hours.

Why it matters: Cyber failures can halt invoicing, payroll and operations — triggering payment delays.

4.3 EU to apply parcel-handling fees from 2026

The EU will introduce a small-parcel handling fee two years early to curb cheap Chinese imports via platforms like Shein and Alibaba.

Why it matters: UK importers of low-value items may face higher costs; ecommerce margins could tighten.

5. Markets – FTSE near 10,000 as GDP knocks sterling

Equities

  • FTSE 100: hit another record 9,911.42, before opening down 0.3% after GDP disappointment
  • European stocks: Stoxx 600 at fresh highs, banks up 57% in 2025
  • US: Dow closes above 48,000 for first time; AMD +9%

Commodities

  • Oil: IEA now predicts record global oil glut by 2026
  • Gold: December futures $4,244.90, up ~$31
  • Copper: LME stocks fell 75 tons
  • Natural gas: UK exports to EU highest in a year

Currency markets

  • GBP falls after weak GDP; EUR/GBP at 0.88435
  • Pound hit a two-year low earlier amid leadership coup rumours
  • Dollar weaker; EUR/USD up for third day

Housing market sentiment

RICS index of homes for sale at –20, lowest since 2021.

Market Outlook

There’s evidence of weakening in the UK housing market ahead of the budget, with the RICS index of homes for sale falling to minus 20 in October , the lowest reading since 2021. Worries over tax rises and policy uncertainty are keeping both buyers and sellers on the sidelines .

Key themes include FTSE 100 approaching the 10,000 milestone with new record highs, the IEA forecasting a record oil glut, pound weakness on GDP disappointment and political uncertainty, and continued dollar weakness following the end of the US government shutdown.

Why it matters: Nervous markets → tighter lending → more businesses relying on suppliers for credit.

Have CPA in your corner

When growth stalls and insolvencies rise, what protects you isn’t luck — it’s strong credit control.

As a CPA member you can get access to suite of credit management tools to support your business and help you trade with confidence.

  • Put our gold eye logo on invoices to show you mean business
  • Get expert debt-chasing support before debts go bad
  • Access guidance from The Late Payment Files to safeguard your cashflow

Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on️️ 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.

When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.

Insolvency Alerts

(All notices included, alphabetically and deduplicated; dates omitted as they represent reporting dates.)

Petitions to wind up (Companies)

  • CAMBRIDGE PARK & LEISURE HOMES LIMITED
  • CAR PLUG MCR LTD
  • CITY LAPTOP REPAIR LTD
  • ELIDOOR LIMITED
  • ENDURMETA LONDON LTD
  • EQ ESPORTS AND GAMING LTD
  • REID CAPITAL (DURTON) LTD

Appointment of Liquidators

  • DJK SERVICES LTD
  • DR.CHRISTINE MEDICAL AESTHETICS LTD
  • EQUANIMITY INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISERS LIMITED
  • GMS MEDICAL SERVICES LIMITED
  • OCBL CARE LTD
  • OCHL CARE LTD
  • OCHLL CARE LTD
  • S B CAVALLI LIMITED
  • SCOTPATH LIMITED
  • SHORE FINANCIAL PLANNING (PLYMOUTH) LIMITED
  • SIMON GROOM LIMITED
  • STACKROX LIMITED
  • TEMPLE VIEW LIMITED
  • TRIBU DANEHURST KINGSTON LTD

Appointment of Administrators

  • JULIENNE BRUNO LTD
  • VGL HOLDCO LIMITED

Why it matters: Every name on this list represents a broken supply chain — and a reminder to tighten credit terms before losses mount.