Business news 13 January 2025

Lots on the current fiscal crisis, tariffs, costs of poor service, IMF forecasts, jobs, property, trade, tax, markets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.

James Salmon, Operations Director.

People should give Chancellor time, says Streeting

Health Secretary Wes Streeting says that while Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under pressure, he has “total confidence” in her leadership. Mr Streeting said the Chancellor and her deputy, Darren Jones, have “the hardest job of all because they have to make those choices across every bit of government spending,” adding that they “have to think about what’s in the interests of our overall economy and how we get businesses growing.” He went on to say that the public “underestimates” the “amount of heavy-lifting” Ms Reeves has had to do and called on appealed for them to “give her time.” Separately, International Development Minister Anneliese Dodds told Sky News that Ms Reeves has been “very clear about the long-term plan for our country” and noted that she herself is “confident in that long-term plan.” The comments came after a drop in the pound and an increase in government borrowing costs fuelled speculation that Ms Reeves may have to make more spending cuts or increase taxes.

MPs warn Reeves against spending cuts

Labour backbenchers have warned Chancellor Rachel Reeves against spending cuts if the UK’s borrowing costs continue to soar. MP Stella Creasy, who chairs the Labour Movement for Europe pressure group, said that rather than cutting spending, ministers should accelerate a “reset” with the EU in a “race for growth.” Meanwhile, MP Rachael Maskell warned that ministers “can’t cut your way out of a crisis.” She went on to suggest that “those with the broadest shoulders should be contributing more,” adding: “We need to understand that tax is a good thing, because a more equal society is a better society for everyone.”

Chancellor faces ‘difficult decisions’ on tax and spending

With borrowing costs hitting their highest level for 16 years, Sir John Gieve, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England, has warned that Rachel Reeves faces “difficult decisions” if she wants to meet her self-imposed financial rules. The Chancellor has pledged not to borrow to fund day-to-day spending and to get debt falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament. Sir John said: “The choice she’s going to face… is can I raise borrowing – and the increase in interest rates that’s happened now, if it continues, will decrease her scope for doing that within her rules – or do I increase taxes again, or do I actually institute some very severe reductions and squeezes on public services.”

Chancellor faces tax dilemma

With Rachel Reeves facing pressure to find new revenue sources without increasing taxes, Capital Economics analyst Ashley Webb considers the Chancellor’s options. While Ms Reeves has ruled out increases to income tax, National Insurance, VAT and corporation tax, Mr Webb says she could tweak other levies – such as capital gains tax and stamp duty – but suggests that doing so “would provide only marginal extra revenue.” He also suggests that the Chancellor could target existing tax relief on areas like ISAs and pensions; broaden the scope of existing levies; and stop paying interest on the £710bn of central bank reserves held by commercial banks at the Bank of England. Mr Webb says Ms Reeves’ “nuclear option” is to go back on her pledge and hike taxes on working people.

Chancellor: Fiscal rules are ‘non-negotiable’

Rachel Reeves says she will “take action” to meet her fiscal rules, insisting that they are “non-negotiable.” Amid an increase in the Government’s borrowing costs, there has been concern that the Chancellor will be unable to meet her debt and spending targets, requiring either tax rises or deeper spending cuts. With Ms Reeves having ruled out further tax rises after hiking taxes by £40bn in October’s Budget, there is speculation that she could reduce spending further.

Chancellor urged to consider ‘halfway house’ on tax and spending

The Guardian’s Heather Stewart says that with gilt yields climbing, there is a risk that the interest bill on the government’s debt pile will soar. This, she observes, would jeopardise Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s hopes of meeting her “non-negotiable” fiscal rules that include a pledge not to increase taxes. Ms Stewart highlights that the Office for Budget Responsibility predicts that the Treasury will spend over £122bn on debt interest payments by 2029/30, meaning that Ms Reeves must consider whether to impose spending cuts or raise taxes. She also notes that the Resolution Foundation has cautioned against making “permanent and concrete policy decisions” in response to temporary market fluctuations, urging Ms Reeves to “keep calm and carry on” until the Autumn Budget. Ms Stewart suggests there is a “sensible halfway house” that involves Ms Reeves promising action in the autumn, should borrowing costs fail to come down.

Trump’s tariffs could cost Britain £2.5bn

Analysts warn that Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could cost British industry £2.5bn annually. Analysis by the Boston Consulting Group indicates that a 20% tax on imports into the US poses significant risks to the UK amid a potential trade war. While some economic impact may be mitigated by increased service sales, the looming tariffs highlight the challenges faced by UK manufacturers, who are already struggling with high energy costs. According to a report from PwC and trade body Make UK: “Industrial UK energy prices as a factor of production have long been higher than those of even our closest neighbours across the continent.”

Private sector to help ministers attack ‘waste and inefficiency’

The Chancellor is reportedly planning measures that will reduce “waste and inefficiency,” with Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, saying officials will work with the private sector to “embrace ideas, expertise and innovation” in a bid to cut unnecessary spending. He says experts from outside Government will be brought in to offer perspective on how taxpayer’s money is being spent and how to best use it. Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Mr Jones said: “Of course, to grip waste there will be no one silver bullet,” adding: “This will take hard work, difficult decisions, and a ground-up approach which interrogates every single line of government spending.” Saying that ministers are “bringing the private sector right into the heart of government and the Spending Review,” Mr Jones warned: “Echo chambers of the same ideas and ideologies when it comes to spending will only ever get to the same end result.”

AI Growth Zones

The government is planning special districts for constructing data centers and will explore dedicating nuclear energy to the sites as part of a project to boost technology growth and the ecosystem for artificial intelligence.  These “AI Growth Zones” will include enhanced access to electricity and easier planning approvals for data centers. It said the first such zone will be in Culham, home of the UK Atomic Energy Authority. The government will form an energy council, composed of public and private officials, that will explore powering the data centers with small modular reactors that rely on nuclear fission technology. The latest AI systems are incredibly energy intensive, and the explosion of interest in the field has prompted a hunt for new sources of power across the globe.

It forms part of a broader set of proposals to harness AI for public services, expand super-computing projects and attract technical talent to the UK. Vantage Data Centers said it will invest more than £12 billion in data centers across the UK as part of the initiative. Nscale, another data center company, said it will spend $2.5 billion over three years.

At his party’s inaugural investment summit last week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer positioned himself as a champion for artificial intelligence. Appearing alongside former Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt, Starmer called AI an “opportunity,” rather than something to be scared of, and said his country “needs to run towards” it.

Poor service costs firms £7.3bn a month

Analysis of the UK Customer Satisfaction Index shows that poor service is costing British business £7.3bn a month. The report suggests that 69% of workers deal with failings in service, with employees devoting an average of four days to troubleshooting. This means that service failings cost £87.6bn in wages each year. Jo Causon, chief executive of the Institute of Customer Services, said: “Service failures are costing billions every month in employees’ time and subsequent lost revenue.”

IMF chief sees steady growth in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects to see steady global growth and continuing disinflation according to its latest World Economic Outlook. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted that the US economy was doing “quite a bit better” than expected but noted that interest rates are expected to stay “somewhat higher for quite some time.” Ms Georgieva suggested that governments need to cut fiscal spending and adopt reforms to boost growth. She said: “Countries cannot borrow their way out. They can only grow out of this problem.” In October, the IMF raised its 2024 economic growth forecasts for the US, Brazil and Britain but cut them for China, Japan and the euro zone. It also left its forecast for 2024 global growth unchanged at the 3.2% projected in July. The IMF also lowered its global forecast for 3.2% growth in 2025 and warned that global medium-term growth would slip to 3.1% in five years.

HMRC tax probes pull in £46bn

HMRC collected nearly £46bn as a result of investigations into taxpayers in the last financial year. According to analysis by Pinsent Masons, the tax office raised £45.7bn from tax investigations, a 28% rise from the £35.7bn recorded the previous year. The tax gap, which represents unpaid taxes, stood at £39.8bn, with over £19bn deemed unrecoverable. Steven Porter from Pinsent Masons said: “The new government has made its aim clear: to close the tax gap by putting a real squeeze on tax evasion and tax avoidance.” To aid this effort, HMRC plans to invest £1.6bn over five years to recruit additional compliance and debt management staff, aiming to raise an estimated £4.7bn by 2029/30. The hiring initiative also seeks to enhance customer service, as many businesses reported poor experiences with HMRC.

Reeves: China deals worth £600m

Rachel Reeves has defended a controversial trip to China, saying that trade deals agreed in Beijing will be worth £600m to the UK over the next five years. She said her trip will “unlock tangible benefits for British businesses exporting and trading around the world to ensure we have greater access to the second-largest economy in the world.” The Chancellor met vice-premier He Lifeng to discuss trade and investment opportunities, with the Treasury saying the UK and China had agreed to deeper co-operation in trade, financial services, investment and on climate issues.

CFO confidence slides

Business confidence among finance chiefs has reached a two-year low, according to a Deloitte poll. With many respondents attributing the downturn to the October Budget, which has increased employment costs, CFOs are responding to the tax raid by cutting costs or raising prices. Two-thirds of finance directors do not expect to increase hiring levels this year, with this a four-year high. The poll also shows that a net 26% feel more pessimistic about the prospects for their business than three months ago. More than half of those polled rated cutting costs as their top priority. Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, said: “With cost control to the fore in the wake of the budget, chief financial officers have trimmed expectations for corporate investment, discretionary spending and hiring in the next 12 months. But despite a fall in business confidence, we expect to see UK growth picking up over the summer on the back of easy fiscal policy and interest rate reductions, with GDP growth likely to exceed the 2024 outturn and the performance of the euro area.”

Tax hike hits jobs market

The recent increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions (NICs) has raised concerns about the fragility of the UK jobs market. Despite a historically low unemployment rate of about 4%, the Chancellor’s decision to raise NICs from 13.8% to 15% has led to immediate hiring freezes and layoffs across various sectors. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates potential job losses of 50,000 over the next five years, with private sector economists predicting losses between 80,000 and 150,000. Praful Nargund from the Good Growth Foundation noted that businesses must adapt to offset rising costs through training and technology to enhance productivity. Schellion Horn, head of economic consulting at Grant Thornton, comments: “In low-wage sectors that have struggled to hire people, I think the conversations are not about reducing wages; it’s about how we make these jobs more attractive despite these increases because we know we need to hire people in.”

Apprenticeships down a third in a decade

Apprenticeships in the UK have seen a significant decline, dropping by nearly a third over the past decade. The Government’s introduction of a levy on businesses aimed at promoting training has failed to reverse this trend, with a 14% decrease in large firms alone. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development reports that fewer employers are providing training, despite a doubling of skill shortage vacancies. Analysis by the Social Market Foundation also suggests that many companies are using the £2.5bn fund to train existing executives rather than creating opportunities for young people.

NI hike could hit wages – Breeden

In a lesson on stating the bleeding obvious, Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England’s deputy governor for financial stability, has warned of the potential long-term impact of higher National Insurance contributions for employers, saying businesses might respond to increased tax burdens by lowering wages, cutting jobs, or raising prices.

Fruit cost warning over tax raid

The British Growers Association (BGA) has warned that a £40bn tax raid set out in the Budget will increase production costs for vegetables by 10% to 12%, with higher staffing costs having an impact. This comes after Chancellor Rachel Reeves outlined plans to increase the minimum wage, as well as raising the rate of employer National Insurance contributions and lowering the threshold at which companies pay them.

Supermarkets call for business rates reform

The bosses of Britain’s biggest supermarkets have urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to overhaul the business rates regime, warning that impending increases could make large sites unviable. With rates set to increase in April and retailers facing higher National Insurance costs and a minimum wage hike, the sector is facing a £7bn rise in costs. Retailers argue that reforming business rates will help ease this burden. Sainsbury’s chief executive Simon Roberts described the levy as a “fundamentally difficult and unfair tax on retail,” while Tesco CEO Ken Murphy warned that “onerous” rates bills are putting “the integrity” of the high street at risk. Data shows that more than 13,000 shops closed for good in 2024, with this up 28% on 2023. The Centre for Retail Research predicts that around 17,350 shops are set to shut down in 2025.

City vacancies slump

New data shows that there has been a significant decline in job opportunities within the City, with financial services vacancies dropping to their lowest level since 2020. According to a survey by Morgan McKinley, only 3,664 job openings were posted between October and December 2024, down from 4,483 in the previous quarter. Mark Astbury from Morgan McKinley commented: “These stark figures paint a sobering picture of an industry grappling with mounting challenges.

Regulators will be told to boost growth

Britain’s regulators will this week be told to embrace risk and “strip back” overly cautious rules in a bid to drive economic growth. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to meet the heads of Britain’s largest regulators – including the Financial Conduct Authority and Competition and Markets Authority – and ask them to put forward their plans to stimulate growth in the sectors they oversee. They will be urged to reduce regulation and make it easier for new entrants to enter their markets. This comes after Ms Reeves contacted the country’s key watchdogs in December, telling them they have until this Thursday to set out plans to make their sectors “more pro-growth and pro-investment.” A senior Treasury source said the message that the Chancellor will be sending is that the regulators “need to go further and faster in stripping back unnecessary rules and creating an environment where companies can take risks.” The insider also noted that Ms Reeves will look to address concerns over regulatory red tape, with this the “single biggest” complaint ministers have received from business groups.

Markets

On Friday, markets fell after surprisingly strong US jobs numbers hit the expectations of US rate cuts. The US economy added over 100,000 more jobs than expected in December, while unemployment receded. Non-farm payrolls climbed by 256,000 over the month, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. Markets had been expecting the addition of 153,000 jobs in December and for unemployment to remain flat at 4.2%.

The FTSE 100 closed down 0.86%  at 8248.49 and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.81% at 4977.26. While in the US the S&P 500 fell 1.54% to 5827.04 and the NASDAQ fell 1.63% to 19161.63.

This morning on currencies, the pound is currently worth $1.216 and €1.189. On Commodities, Oil (Brent)  is at $80.96 & Gold is at $2687. On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is currently down 0.33% at 8220 and the Eurostoxx 50 is down 0.64% at 4945.

Oil Prices extended gains for a third session on Monday, with Brent rising above $81 a barrel to its highest in more than four months, as wider US sanctions are expected to affect Russian crude exports to top buyers China and India.

China Exports and imports in December beat expectations by a significant margin. Exports rose 10.7% from a year earlier, beating Reuters’ expectations of a 7.3% year-on-year growth. The country’s imports in December unexpectedly rose 1%, compared with Reuters’ estimates of a 1.5% decline.

FTSE 250 sees worst week since 2023

The FTSE 250 fell by almost 4% last week, marking its worst week since 2023 as investors grew concerned over the pound sinking and UK gilt yields rising. Deutsche Bank research strategist Jim Reid said a global bond sell-off came “with long-term borrowing costs continuing to move higher across the board.” While the FTSE 250 posted its worst weekly performance since August 2023, the FTSE 100 was up 0.5%. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, noted that while approximately half of the FTSE 250 generates earnings in the UK, “about three quarters of the FTSE 100 earns overseas, making that index less of a play on the state of the UK.”

UK-US boardroom pay gap widens

Research by EY shows that the pay gap between the boardrooms of financial services companies in the UK and the US has widened. Non-executives at North American financial businesses earned an average of $334,707 per director in 2023. This is 26% more than the $266,368 paid to their counterparts in the UK. This compares to a 12% gap seen in 2019, when the average in the US was $302,814 and the UK average was $269,802. Omar Ali, EY’s global financial services leader, said: “Compensation is a key consideration for chairs as they build and maintain their boards in an increasingly global industry.” The research also found that the gender pay gap in UK financial services boardrooms narrowed between 2019 and 2023, from 30% to 25%. Pay for female non-execs rose 7% to $225,275 over the period, while their male counterparts saw average pay fall by 1% to $299,076.

Property market set to surge before relief is withdrawn

Property experts predict that the market will see a surge in activity ahead of the end of stamp duty relief for first time buyers. Currently, no stamp duty is paid on property purchases up to £425,000 for first-timers. This relief is set to end on March 31 and after this cut-off, those getting onto the property ladder will face the same stamp duty rate as other buyers, with no tax on purchases up to £300,000. Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, has described the end of the stamp duty holiday as “extra motivation” for first-time buyers.

November sees house sales decline

House sales in the UK experienced a decline in November 2024, with 92,640 transactions recorded, an 8% drop from October but a 13% increase compared to November 2023, according to HMRC. Mortgage approvals also fell, with 65,700 recorded in November, down by 2,400 from the previous month.

Cash concern for those with housing costs

Analysis by Shelter and HSBC shows that 52% of people paying housing costs are starting the new year worried about housing or financial pressures. It was also found that 67% of people with housing costs have experienced housing pressures over the past year. Of those experiencing housing pressures, 57% said they have lost sleep over issues including high rents, poor conditions and the risk of eviction. The poll saw 21% of those paying housing costs say they have struggled to keep up with mortgage or rent payments, while 37% have had to cut back on essentials to afford their housing costs.

Farmers protest over tax raid

Farmers have accused Chancellor Rachel Reeves of jeopardising their industry amid widespread protests against an inheritance tax increase set out in October’s Budget. The protests, which targeted supermarket supply chains, saw hundreds of tractors participate in go-slow demonstrations, with farmers warning that the tax hike would compel them to sell their land.

Morrisons backs farmers against tax raid

Morrisons has expressed its support for farmers protesting against the Government’s proposed inheritance tax changes, which could significantly impact family farms. The planned changes, set to take effect in April 2026, would impose a 20% inheritance tax on farming estates valued over £1m. Despite farmers’ concerns, the Government has not shown willingness to amend the tax. Sophie Throup, head of agriculture at Morrisons, said: “We understand your anger and your frustrations at the inheritance tax and we’re with you.”

Auditor questions Fujitsu’s viability

Auditors from EY say that Fujitsu Services, the developer of the Horizon IT system at the centre of the Post Office scandal, is unable to quantify compensation payouts, raising questions over the company’s financial viability. EY said they while Fujitsu’s Japanese parent says it will bankroll its UK arm until December 2025, this support will be required for a further 12 months if Fujitsu is to meet its financial commitments. The concerns come despite Fujitsu pumping £200m of equity into its UK operations last year. A Fujitsu spokeswoman said: “Fujitsu Services Limited is well positioned to adapt to adverse market effects.” Fujitsu last January announced that it would contribute to a fund to compensate victims of the Horizon scandal.

Deadline looms for self-assessment returns

With less than three weeks remaining to file self-assessment tax returns for the 2023/24 tax year, 5.4m individuals have yet to submit theirs, according to HMRC. As the January 31 deadline nears, the Guardian offers a guide for those yet to submit their data. Caroline Miskin, the senior technical manager, digital taxation, at the ICAEW, suggests that utilising HMRC’s app is “likely to be much quicker than searching through paperwork or phoning HMRC.” Emma Sterland, chief financial planning director at Evelyn Partners, notes that “more people will now be in the position where they have to declare income from savings via self-assessment,” while Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, notes that “higher-rate taxpayers need to make sure they claim higher-rate tax relief, which isn’t always done automatically.” Elsa Littlewood, a tax partner at BDO, reminds taxpayers that “crypto investments are treated in the same way as traditional investments such as shares when it comes to CGT.” Tim Stovold, head of tax at Moore Kingston Smith, offers advice on claiming tax relief on charitable donations, while Fiona Fernie, a partner at Blick Rothenberg, notes that child benefit paid to higher earners is clawed back via the tax system on a sliding scale. Aatif Malik of consultancy Tax Accountant comments: “It’s really important to remember to include all foreign income in your return and clarify your residency status to HMRC.” Helen Thornley, a technical officer at the Association of Taxation Technicians, reminds those filing a return to ensure they receive a submission reference, with this proving their submission has gone through.

Pensions cut could fund hospitals

Analysis from the TaxPayers’ Alliance reveals that a 5% cut in public sector pensions could finance the construction of five new hospitals or resurface all of Britain’s motorways. Currently, the public sector pensions bill stands at approximately £2.6trn, surpassing the UK’s entire economy. Darwin Friend, head of research at the TaxPayers’ Alliance, commented: “The flabbergasting cost of public sector pensions is an enormous millstone around the neck of the state.” The Government is reportedly considering offering civil servants higher salaries in exchange for reduced pensions, a move that has divided unions.

BBC could be funded by taxes

Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy is contemplating the abolition of the BBC’s licence fee, proposing instead to fund the broadcaster through general tax revenue. A Whitehall source said Ms Nandy “does not believe that the licence fee is financially sustainable,” emphasising the need for public ownership and involvement in the BBC’s governance. A YouGov poll indicates that only 36% of respondents support replacing the licence fee with tax funding, while 49% oppose it.

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Why you should become a member of CPA!

The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments.  With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.

Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.

Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:

  1. Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
  2. Our monitoring service will alert you to any significant changes in the status of those customers.
  3. Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.

All of the above services and other complimentary services such address verification, are included in your subscription!

And for the small minority of debts not resolved through our Overdue account recovery service, you can refer the debt to our collections department to escalate the late payment collections process.

CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.

Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the value of their debts maybe!

Rather than to borrowing more money to improve your cashflow, CPA suggests that business owners tackle the problem at its source. If late payments are a strain on your cashflow, then talk to CPA about how we can help you reduce those late payments.

Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.

When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections

 

Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!

If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA’s collection department for purchase on recourse?

CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.

Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.

Just call  020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.

 

Get compensated for previous late payments

Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?

Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to  compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.

You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!

Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!

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Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!

Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.