Business news 17 March 2025
Some of the business news we have seen that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Please note: on the 19/3/25 CPA are moving offices after 43 years a little down the road to Profile West, 950 Great West Road, Brentford, TW8 9ES
UK economy contracts in January
The UK economy shrank unexpectedly in January, with a decline in the manufacturing sector fuelling a 0.1% contraction. Analysts had forecast growth of 0.1%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday that GDP increased by 0.2% over the three months to January, compared with the three months to October. Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “The fall in January was driven by a notable slowdown in manufacturing, with oil and gas extraction and construction also having weak months. However, services continued to grow in January led by a strong month for retail, especially food stores, as people ate and drank at home more.” Commenting on the figures, Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “The upcoming spring statement is unlikely to deliver additional fiscal stimulus for the UK economy. The sluggish growth outlook, alongside competing spending pressures will force the chancellor to tighten purse strings.”
Manufacturing sector hits a wall
The UK’s manufacturing sector experienced a decline in output during the first quarter of the year, marking the first drop since 2016. Verity Davidge, policy director at Make UK, described the situation as manufacturers “wading through treacle” due to rising business taxes and global trade tensions. The sector, contributing less than 10% to the economy, has been in recession for three years, exacerbated by high energy costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. An index of manufacturing activity plummeted from plus 20 to minus 1, indicating a significant contraction. Stephen Phipson, chief executive of Make UK, warned of frozen recruitment plans and potential redundancies, calling for a “shift in mindset across government” to support the industry. The forecast suggests a 0.5% decline in overall output this year, with many firms anticipating layoffs and hiring freezes due to increased national insurance costs.
New board of trade unveiled
The UK Government has appointed a new board of trade, featuring prominent figures such as BT chief executive Allison Kirkby and Ella’s Kitchen founder Paul Lindley. The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) aims to enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to boost exports and stimulate economic growth. The board will not merely serve as a discussion platform; it is expected to actively promote international trade opportunities. Michelle Ovens, founder of Small Business Britain, expressed her excitement about the potential for small businesses to expand globally, highlighting their role in job creation and community support. The Government is also seeking evidence on the financial support needed by SMEs to overcome growth barriers, with a strategy to be published later this year.
London’s small businesses aim for growth
Research indicates a strong commitment among London’s small businesses to pursue growth, with 84% planning new initiatives this Spring, significantly above the national average of 71%. This marks an increase from 69% last year. Joanna Morris, head of insight at Novuna Business Finance, said: “It is positive that so many London enterprises are investing in new projects to drive future growth over the spring and summer months.” The study, part of the Business Barometer tracking research, surveyed 1,315 small business owners, revealing plans to expand into new markets, invest in equipment, and increase headcount despite ongoing geopolitical challenges.
Workers consider leaving due to mental health
The UK’s economic inactivity issue is exacerbated by employees contemplating leaving their jobs due to mental health concerns. A survey by PwC and Focaldata revealed that 10% of workers are “considering leaving work for an extended period,” with 25% of those aged 16-24 contemplating quitting. The inactivity rate has risen since the pandemic, peaking at 22.2% last summer, and currently stands at 21.5%, affecting 9.3m people. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reported that over half of the increase in disability benefit claims is linked to mental health issues, with 1.3m claimants. Marco Amitrano, senior partner at PwC UK, said: “Much of the current conversation focuses on how to get people outside the workforce back in; equally important is stemming the flow leaving the workforce in the first place.”
IHT hitting many family businesses beyond farming
Lucy Williams, managing partner at JS (Jackson Stephen LLP), highlights in City AM the impact of inheritance tax (IHT) changes on family businesses beyond the farming sector. While farmers have received significant media attention, they represent less than 5% of the UK’s family businesses, which account for 93% of all private-sector enterprises. The upcoming reforms, effective from April 2026, will cap Business Property Relief and Agricultural Property Relief at a combined limit of £1m, exposing many small businesses to a 20% IHT rate. Williams illustrates this with the example of Redbox Limited, a small manufacturing firm that could face a £200,000 IHT bill, jeopardising over 100 jobs. She argues that Labour’s claims that these tax hikes “won’t affect working people” are misleading, as taxing businesses ultimately harms job creation. Williams calls for a raise in the IHT relief threshold to £5m and urges family businesses to advocate for their interests, stating: “If Labour refuses to listen, business owners must make themselves impossible to ignore.”
IHT raid threatens family-run construction firms
Family-run construction plant hire companies are expressing grave concerns over the Government’s proposed inheritance tax changes. Mark Anderson, Managing Director of the GAP Group, warned that the new plans could impose an inheritance tax bill of £50-£100m, jeopardising the future of the business. He described the situation as a “state penalty on family businesses” which could be forced to sell or shut down. Labour’s plan to reduce Business Property Relief to 50% from April 2026 is expected to impact over 1,500 firms in the sector, which is valued at £14bn. Steve Mulholland, Chief Executive of the Construction Plant-hire Association, said many plant hire businesses are asset-rich but cash-poor, leading to fears of winding down operations. The Shadow Chancellor labelled the proposed changes as “disastrous” for family-owned businesses.
Homebuyers face stamp duty deadline rush
Homebuyers in England are facing a rush as the stamp duty deadline approaches, with a decade-high number of properties available this spring. According to Rightmove, the average property price has increased by 1.1% to £371,870, but many sellers are pricing realistically. Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove, noted that “the hope of a deadline extension is fading,” yet the upcoming spring statement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves could offer a chance for a short extension. Currently, there are 575,000 moves in the legal completion process, with 74,000 buyers set to miss the deadline, resulting in an additional £142m in tax. Despite economic uncertainties, the property market remains stable, with sales 9% higher than last year. Rightmove predicts 1.15m property transactions for 2025.
McDonald’s franchises face legal action over abuse and harassment
Owners of McDonald’s franchises in the UK are facing potential legal action for failing to protect workers from sexual abuse and harassment. The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has stated there is “no excuse not to comply” with the Equality Act, stressing the need for regular risk assessments and effective complaint procedures. Over 700 individuals aged 19 or younger have initiated legal action against the chain, citing discrimination and harassment across more than 450 restaurants. McDonald’s has expressed its commitment to a safe working environment and is working with consultants from PwC to enhance its procedures.
Call to cut VAT on electric cars
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) is advocating for a significant reduction in VAT on new electric vehicles (EVs) to stimulate demand. According to SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes, halving the current 20% VAT could boost sales by 15%, potentially adding 267,000 EVs to UK roads within two years. Hawes said: “With the right support for consumers, we can go beyond current expectations to put a total of more than two million new EVs on the road by 2028.” While the proposed cut would impact Treasury revenues, the SMMT argues that the Government has already gained £2.5bn in VAT receipts from increased EV uptake over the past five years.
Fuel prices could be on the way down
The RAC has announced that average fuel prices are expected to decrease by at least 6p per litre for petrol and 3p per litre for diesel in the coming weeks, following a decline in wholesale costs. Simon Williams, RAC head of policy, said: “Drivers have had to endure five months of rising prices, so it’s good news wholesale prices have fallen significantly.” However, the extent of the price cuts will depend on retailers passing on these savings to consumers. The Competition and Markets Authority found UK drivers paid a total of £900m more for fuel at supermarkets in 2022 because of increased margins and £1.6bn across all retailers in 2023 because of the same issue.
PM to drive through welfare cuts
Sir Keir Starmer is facing criticism over proposed welfare cuts that could affect over 600,000 severely disabled individuals, potentially reducing their benefits by an average of £675 a month. The Resolution Foundation has warned that these changes, which include tightening eligibility for Personal Independent Payments (PIP), could lead to a £5bn reduction in support by 2029-30 and cause “real harm” to vulnerable individuals. Disability rights campaigners and Labour MPs have expressed alarm, with one MP stating they approach the upcoming week with “absolute horror.” Despite the backlash, the Government plans to proceed with the changes, which are set to be outlined by Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall. The move comes as the health secretary, Wes Streeting, said he believes doctors are “over diagnosing” mental health conditions, contributing to the ballooning welfare bill.
Ministers face backlash over benefit cuts
Ministers are reconsidering their controversial plans to cut benefits for disabled individuals, particularly the personal independence payment (PIP), amid significant backlash from the Labour party. The proposed cuts, aimed at saving between £5bn and £6bn, have faced criticism for being unfair, even from former Tory chancellor George Osborne. Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, stressed Labour’s commitment to protecting those unable to work due to disability, stating: “Protecting people in genuine need is a principle Labour will never compromise on.” The Government is also exploring changes to eligibility for PIP, which could affect around 1m individuals, while plans to scrap the work capability assessment are under consideration. Campaigners argue that without changes to employment law, disabled individuals will continue to struggle in the workforce.
Chancellor should raise taxes not cut spending
Rachel Reeves is under pressure to revise her fiscal plans amid a struggling economy and increased borrowing costs. A report from the Resolution Foundation indicates the Chancellor needs to find £4.4bn to ensure day-to-day spending is covered by tax rather than borrowing. The think tank suggests that instead of cutting welfare, she should consider extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds for two more years, which could generate £8bn. James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation, said: “The Chancellor must act decisively to meet her fiscal rules. But with the jobs market in recession territory, lower income households shouldn’t bear the brunt of any consolidation.”
Higher employment taxes hit youngest workers hardest
Younger employees in the UK are facing significant job losses as the Government prepares to implement a rise in the minimum wage and higher employment taxes. Data from Employment Hero indicates a 0.4% contraction in overall employment levels in February, with the steepest decline of 1.8% among those aged 16-24. This trend is attributed to companies laying off younger staff in anticipation of increased hiring costs, which will make the average employee on a median wage £900 more expensive to employ. The number of young people not in education, employment, or training has reached an 11-year high of 987,000, highlighting the urgent need for policy intervention. Separate figures from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation for February showed a stabilisation in job openings, which rose by 0.1% over the month to 1.55m, with the largest gains seen in the construction sector.
Chancellor under pressure to raise tax threshold
Pressure is mounting on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to revise the frozen income tax thresholds, which have remained unchanged since 2021. A petition led by Dennis Reed has garnered support from 84,000 individuals, advocating for an increase in the personal tax allowance from £12,570 to £20,000. Reed expressed concern that the current freeze could lead to a “double whammy” for pensioners, particularly as the state pension may exceed the personal allowance by 2026. He highlighted the plight of individuals like 75-year-old widow Colette, who could face poverty without a threshold increase. Despite the growing demand, the Treasury has stated it has no plans to raise the personal allowance, citing significant fiscal costs and the need for economic stability.
Action Fraud and Meta in 2FA push
Reports of hacked social media and email accounts surged to 35,434 last year, a significant increase from 22,530 in 2023, according to Action Fraud, the UK’s national reporting centre for fraud and cybercrime. Adam Mercer, deputy director of Action Fraud, stated that hacking of social media and email accounts is “the most reported cybercrime.” In response, Action Fraud has partnered with Meta to launch a public awareness campaign promoting two-step verification to enhance online security. The campaign addresses the critical issue of account hacking, which often leads to financial fraud or the illicit sale of compromised accounts
Gold hits $3,000 for first time
The price of gold surged above the $3,000 mark on Friday as investors fearful of the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs ploughed cash into the safe haven asset. “Both institutional and private investors are turning to gold to hedge their portfolios against economic turbulence,” said Alexander Zumpfe, senior precious metals trader at Heraeus. “The physical gold market is experiencing strong demand” because precious metals are valued as protection against economic crises, he added.
JustGiving faces backlash over profits
JustGiving, the fundraising platform, is facing criticism for its substantial profits, having reported over £31m before tax from £59m in income during the 2023 financial year. Andrew Sanford, a partner at Blick Rothenberg, described the profit margin as “astonishing for the nature of that business.” JustGiving deducts 1.9% from donations and suggests a 17% tip, alongside charging charities subscription fees. A spokesperson said: “In order for us to continue to support fundraisers, it is essential that we operate as a for-profit organisation.” Critics argue that the tip model has confused donors, with Nikki Kerr from Family Support Work claiming it complicates the donation process. JustGiving’s profitability has surged since introducing the tip, raising concerns about the impact on charities. The platform, owned by Blackbaud Inc, has raised over £550m for nearly 20,000 UK charities.
JD Wetherspoon expected to report soaring sales
JD Wetherspoon is poised to announce impressive sales figures this week, with analysts predicting a significant market share gain from smaller competitors due to upcoming tax increases in April. The pub chain, which operates around 800 venues in the UK, is set to release its half-year results on 21 March. In a January update, Wetherspoon projected nearly a 5% rise in food and drink sales for the six months ending 26 January. Additionally, a boost of 11% in sales from high-margin slot machines is expected to enhance profits by 10%
House Prices
House prices were up in March with new buyers facing “decade-high choice”, numbers from Rightmove have revealed. The average price of property coming to market for sale is £371,870 in March, Rightmove said. This marked a 1.1% or £3,876 on-year increase, and was “in line with the long-term March average increase, as many new sellers price sensibly amid decade-high competition to sell”.
US consumer sentiment
The University of Michigan announced on Friday that the preliminary reading of its US Consumer Sentiment survey was 57.9 in March, down from February’s revised reading at 64.7. The data was significantly below expectations, as the consensus forecast of economists called for a 63.1 reading. According to the survey, consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since May 2023. Along with souring sentiment, consumers continue to be worried about inflation. The report said that one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9%, up from last month’s reading of 4.3%.
China
Retail sales in China grew by 4% in the first two months of 2025, compared with the same period last year. However, there was more depressing news on the country’s flagging housing sector. The price of new homes fell by 0.1% in February, and 4.8% year on year.
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Why you should become a member of CPA!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have supported our members through all sorts of difficult trading environments. With high interest rates and a struggling economy and elevated insolvencies, our services can help your business navigate these difficult waters.
Unlike other credit management and debt collection companies, we offer a range of services to our members that are all included as part of a fixed annual subscription, tailored to your needs.
Under your annual subscription you will have access to our main services:
- Our Creditcare credit reports provide credit ratings and limits along with a host of detailed information on your potential customers to enable you to trade with confidence and set appropriate credit policies for new customers.
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- Our Overdue account recovery service can be used to chase up payment on any invoices to those customers that have not been paid on time. Unlike other debt collection companies, this service directs your customer to pay direct to you and allows you to maintain your goodwill with them, rather than inserting ourselves into your relationship with you customer and insisting they pay CPA instead. Our Overdue account recovery service resolves over 80% of accounts referred to us.
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CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers and be warned of any potential risks. CPA has been improving business cash flow for over 100 years, by tackling late payers and campaigning against the late payment culture in the UK.
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Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
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The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
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Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
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Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
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