Business news 2 March 2026

The first trading day of March opens under significant global strain. A major escalation in the Middle East over the weekend — described as “Operation Epic Fury” — has triggered a sharp rise in oil prices, grounded flights across the Gulf, and prompted defensive positioning in global markets. Equity futures are pointing to a lower open, safe-haven assets are rallying and volatility is returning after months of relative calm.

At home, business confidence has plunged, consumer sentiment has weakened, unemployment has reached a five-year high and insolvency volumes remain heavy. Rising wage bills, high taxation in hospitality and ongoing regulatory pressures are compounding the strain.

For SMEs supplying on credit, this is a moment where global volatility and domestic fragility are colliding.

James Salmon, Operations Director.

Global & Market Developments

US–Iran strikes trigger energy shock

The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran over the weekend, leading to immediate retaliation and heightened tension across the region. Airports in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha grounded services, airlines diverted flights and Iran’s navy reportedly restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that carries roughly one-third of global seaborne oil.

This is not a theoretical risk event — it is operational disruption affecting aviation, shipping and energy markets in real time.

Why it matters: Energy and logistics shocks feed quickly into UK transport costs, supplier pricing and working capital strain, prompting customers to preserve cash and delay payments.

Oil jumps sharply – $100 risk re-emerges

Brent crude rose approximately 8% to around $78–$80 per barrel, while WTI jumped over 7%. Analysts warn that if shipping disruption persists or the conflict escalates, oil could reach $100 per barrel. Opec has announced a 206,000 barrel-per-day output increase, but concerns remain over insurance premiums and tanker access through Hormuz.

War-risk insurance costs are rising sharply, and some underwriters may withdraw cover entirely for vessels transiting the Strait.

Why it matters: Fuel costs rise rapidly, squeezing margins in logistics, construction, manufacturing and food distribution — increasing the likelihood of slower supplier payments.

Market Snapshot – Monday Morning

Executive Summary

Markets are opening the week under severe pressure following the Middle East escalation. Equity futures signal a gap-down open across the US and Europe. Oil prices have surged, safe-haven currencies are rallying and investors are moving defensively.

The geopolitical shock has overtaken last week’s trade policy concerns and earnings outlooks. Volatility is returning.

Equities – Friday Close

  • Dow Jones: 48,977 (down 1.05%)
  • S&P 500: 6,878 (down 0.43%)
  • FTSE 100: 10,817 (up 0.59% Friday, but futures lower Monday)
  • DAX: 24,852
  • CAC 40: 8,445

Asian Session (Monday)

  • Nikkei 225: down 1.35%
  • Hang Seng: down 2.14%
  • Shanghai Composite: up 0.47%
  • ASX 200: flat
  • Kospi: flat

Futures (Monday Morning GMT)

  • S&P 500 futures down roughly 0.8%
  • Nasdaq futures weaker
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures pointing lower

Currencies

  • Dollar stronger against sterling
  • Swiss franc attracting safe-haven flows
  • Yen modestly firmer
  • Sterling softer versus USD

Commodities

  • Brent: ~8% higher
  • WTI: ~7.6% higher
  • Gold: up over 2%
  • Silver higher

Key Takeaways

  • Gap risk elevated across equities
  • Energy is the standout driver
  • Safe havens bid
  • Credit issuance delayed (bond deals postponed)
  • Emerging market stress (Turkey implemented emergency monetary measures)
  • Volatility returning after prolonged calm

Why it matters: Market stress tightens credit conditions, reduces investment appetite and encourages defensive cash retention behaviour among businesses.

UK Economic Signals

Business confidence plunges

The Institute of Directors’ economic confidence index fell from -48 in January to -63 in February. Confidence in firms’ own prospects dropped from +14 to +1. Directors cited sluggish growth, employment taxes and regulatory burden as key concerns.

Confidence readings at these levels typically precede slower hiring, reduced capital expenditure and more cautious cash management.

Why it matters: When confidence falls, customers slow payments and prioritise liquidity over supplier relationships.

Consumer confidence weakens

GfK’s index fell three points to -19, with weaker perceptions of personal finances driving the decline. Fewer consumers believe it is a good time to make major purchases, as living costs have risen 3.6% over the past year.

This reinforces signs of fragile household demand just as businesses face rising input costs.

Why it matters: Softer consumer spending weakens SME revenue, increasing reliance on credit and elevating default risk.

Unemployment at five-year high

Unemployment has reached a five-year high, while youth female inactivity (Neet rates) has risen to 11.8%. PwC estimates the economic cost at £11bn annually.

Labour market softness undermines wage growth momentum and consumer resilience.

Why it matters: Weaker employment reduces disposable income and increases the risk of arrears for consumer-facing SMEs.

Cost & Regulatory Pressure

CBI warns wage and NI costs squeezing growth

The CBI says higher employer National Insurance contributions and National Living Wage increases are raising business cost bases and discouraging job creation.

Labour-intensive sectors face immediate margin compression.

Why it matters: Rising fixed wage costs reduce tolerance for slow-paying customers and increase insolvency vulnerability.

Employment law reforms spark backlash

Proposed removal of the cap on unfair dismissal awards and reducing the qualifying period to six months has alarmed business groups. Leaders warn the UK risks becoming less competitive and increasing tribunal pressure.

Greater employment litigation risk adds another layer of cost uncertainty.

Why it matters: Increased legal exposure drives cautious hiring and encourages cash retention over supplier payments.

Sector Stress

£10 pint warning as pub margins collapse

The average London pint now costs £6.92, yet pubs retain only 17p profit — a margin of 2.5%. Over 1,100 pubs closed last year. Telegraph analysis suggests prices could reach £10 within a decade if cost trends persist.

High duties, wage costs and energy bills are eroding viability.

Why it matters: Hospitality’s razor-thin margins mean even minor demand or cost shocks trigger insolvencies and unpaid supplier invoices.

Alcohol duty receipts fall despite high rates

HMRC data shows alcohol duty receipts have fallen 4% this financial year, despite some of the highest rates in Europe.

Falling revenue suggests reduced consumption and financial strain across the sector.

Why it matters: Declining sector turnover increases risk exposure for drinks distributors, wholesalers and suppliers trading on credit.

BrewDog rescue bid amid £800m debt

BrewDog posted £36.6m losses in 2024 and carries £800m in debt. Founder James Watt is leading a £2bn rescue bid, with rival suitors also interested.

This underscores the vulnerability of leveraged growth models in today’s climate.

Why it matters: Major restructurings increase payment uncertainty for suppliers and tighten credit insurance across the sector.

GAME Retail enters administration

GAME Retail Limited has appointed administrators.

Retail remains highly exposed to weak consumer confidence and rising operating costs.

Why it matters: Retail administrations can create immediate bad debt exposure for suppliers and landlords.

Property Market

House prices rise 1% year-on-year

Nationwide reported house prices rose 1.0% annually in February, with average prices at £273,176.

This suggests resilience in housing despite broader fragility.

Why it matters: Stable property values support balance sheets, but do not offset rising wage, energy and confidence pressures.

Insolvency Watch

Appointment of Administrators

  • ELEVATED ENGINEERING SERVICES NW LTD
  • GAME RETAIL LIMITED
  • HAY HILL INVESTMENTS LTD
  • K.A.M. PLASTICS LTD
  • SMART RECRUITMENT SOLUTIONS (SWINDON) LIMITED
  • WILD CHILD ANIMATION LIMITED
  • WISE EMPLOYMENT (SWINDON) LIMITED

Appointment of Liquidators

  • A BERRYMAN LTD
  • A.J. HORNIG LIMITED
  • ALTI PRADERA HOLDINGS LIMITED
  • APPS 360 LIMITED
  • ARC EURO TRADE LTD
  • AUTHENTIC BESPOKE LIMITED
  • BIRCHMEAD CONSULTING LTD
  • BRAVA CHARTERING LIMITED
  • BROOMLEAF ASSOCIATES LIMITED
  • CAELIAN CONSULTING LTD
  • CAMPBELL PROPERTIES LIMITED
  • CENTRAL SKYE HOTELS LIMITED
  • CHRIS BIRRELL CONSULTING LTD
  • CLM PROJECTS AND PROGRAMMES LTD
  • CLIFFORD BAINES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
  • CUBIX WEB SOLUTIONS LIMITED
  • DALKEITH SOLUTIONS LIMITED
  • DELANGE DESIGN LIMITED
  • DELIVERY FOCUSSED LTD
  • DISTINCT OPERATIONS LTD
  • DMA MEDICAL LIMITED
  • ECCLES SOT LIMITED
  • EREISIS LIMITED
  • FIREPLACES DIRECT LIMITED
  • FIVE-0 CONSULTING LTD
  • FOUR FIVE STUDIO LTD
  • G2 SOLUTIONS LTD
  • HARDISON DEVELOPMENTS LTD
  • HEADLOGIC SOLUTIONS LIMITED
  • HUGH ORDE LIMITED
  • INCERTO LIMITED
  • INTERPET LIMITED
  • JANET DAY LIMITED
  • JAYTEX (MANCHESTER) LIMITED
  • JIGSAW DRINKS LIMITED
  • KENMOR CEILINGS & PARTITIONS LIMITED
  • KNOLE CONSULTING LIMITED
  • LEAD IT CONSULTING LTD
  • LEEDSHEATH LIMITED
  • LIFESTYLE & HEALTHCARE LIMITED
  • LONGBROOK CONSULTING LIMITED
  • MANIYAR SERVICES LIMITED
  • N B ORTHOPAEDIC CLINIC LIMITED
  • NICROBYTE LIMITED
  • ODGE LTD
  • ONE PRIME LONDON LIMITED
  • OVATION OUTDOOR LTD
  • PAINTED WOLF RESOURCES LIMITED
  • PAUL & ASANGA LIMITED
  • PAUL MILBURN TRANSPORT LTD
  • PETER INVESTMENTS LIMITED
  • PHEONIX SURFACING LIMITED
  • PHOENIX OD & HR CONSULTING LTD
  • PLAYING FIELDS & GARDEN SERVICES LIMITED
  • PPNL SPV B26 – 1 LIMITED
  • PPNL SPV B86 LIMITED
  • PPNL SPV B86-1 LIMITED
  • PYE HALL FARMS LIMITED
  • R BERRYMAN LTD
  • RDS SERVICES HOLDINGS LIMITED
  • RBM EDUCATION LIMITED
  • REAL BOKEH LIMITED
  • RD SERVICES (UK) LIMITED
  • RED SQUARED SOLUTIONS LTD
  • ROB J LTD
  • SA TORRASSA LTD
  • SEARCH RECRUITMENT LIMITED
  • SENECA PROPERTY 110H LIMITED
  • SHEPHERD AND WEDDERBURN (SERVICES) LIMITED
  • SILVERSKY CONSULTING LIMITED
  • SMERSH CONSULTING LTD
  • SOLUTIONS SPECTRUM LIMITED
  • SPEYSIDE SCAFFOLDING SERVICES LTD
  • SSSURGERY LTD
  • SUGDEN DATA SERVICES LTD
  • SUNNY GARDENS ASSOCIATES LTD
  • TF EFFECTS LIMITED
  • THRAETONA LTD
  • UNTANGL LTD
  • VW DRILLING SERVICES LIMITED
  • WILLIAMDALE PROPERTY GROUP LTD

Petitions to Wind Up (Companies)

  • AB11 WILD LTD
  • ACES JEWELLERS LIMITED
  • ADVENT CARE SOLUTIONS LTD
  • ADMIRAL CARE LTD
  • AXE ESTATES LIMITED
  • BARRINGTON HIBBERT ASSOCIATES LTD
  • BIOWISE LONDON LTD
  • BONO LONDON LIMITED
  • BURLEIGH ESTATES (HOLDINGS) LIMITED
  • C&J LANDSCAPING LIMITED
  • CARGO SOLVED LTD
  • CAVENDISH CLEANING LTD
  • CBR PROJECTS LIMITED
  • CHARLES DEVELOPMENTS (STAFFS) LIMITED
  • COHEN SERVICES LTD
  • CORBIGOE HOTEL LTD
  • CS CREATIVE SOLUTIONS LIMITED
  • CJS4 LTD
  • DIRECT BACK OFFICE LIMITED
  • DLL01 LTD
  • DRONEPREP LTD
  • DUMAN CHIPPY LTD
  • EDGE OF ART LTD
  • EDINBURGH RENT LTD
  • EMMATT CONSTRUCTION LTD
  • EUROPEAN FOODS IMPORTS AND EXPORTS LTD
  • FIVE ZEROS SUPERCARS LIMITED
  • FRESH HAVEN HEALTHCARE LTD
  • FURBIES DOGGY DAYCARE LIMITED
  • GABOTO LIMITED
  • GFM ANIMATION LIMITED
  • GOLDCREST CARE SERVICES LTD
  • H J C PROPERTY SERVICES LIMITED
  • HAMSINI ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED
  • HCG CONSULTANCY GROUP LTD
  • HC MOBILITY SERVICES LTD
  • HEYSIDE LIMITED
  • HES FIRE AND SECURITY LIMITED
  • INDEX CARE LIMITED
  • INTELLITECTION LIMITED
  • INTERCITY PCV SERVICES LIMITED
  • IONUT K LTD
  • IRENNE LTD
  • IT HAPPENS LTD
  • IWBI (UK) LIMITED
  • JB SCOTLAND LIMITED
  • JAE5 LIMITED
  • JPB ENGINEERING LIMITED
  • JR CONSTRUCTORS UK LTD
  • JOS NORTH EAST LIMITED
  • JSH COOPERATION LTD
  • KPI PAYROLL SOLUTIONS LTD
  • LAINSTON SECURITIES LIMITED
  • LCOG LTD
  • LIGHTBULB BESPOKE CARE, FAMILY SUPPORT & CONSULTING SERVICES LTD
  • LONDON LABORATORY LTD
  • LS PROCESSING LTD
  • MAR FOODS BELFAST LIMITED
  • MAT CONSTRUCT SERVICES LTD
  • MK CATERING LTD
  • MISTRAL CONSULTANCY LIMITED
  • M J (HARROW) LTD
  • NEWCASTLE PROPCO LTD
  • NI DESSERTS LTD
  • NORTH HARBOUR MOTORCYCLES LIMITED
  • NPEOPLE ADMINISTRATION LTD
  • OPTIMAL HEALTH GROUP LIMITED
  • OXARA LONDON LIMITED
  • PADSON GROUP LTD
  • PARKER BATHROOMS AND KITCHENS LTD
  • PENLINGTON RICHARDS LIMITED
  • PENGE AND POPLAR LTD
  • PHC HOME CARE LIMITED
  • PHILLIPS 121 LTD
  • PINECONE LTD
  • PLI CLEANING SERVICES LIMITED
  • PROGRESS PAYROLL LIMITED
  • PROREAL RECRUITMENT LTD
  • Q-EX TELECOMS LIMITED
  • ROSS JACKSON GOLF LTD
  • RUBI LIVING LTD
  • RYE PLANT HIRE LIMITED
  • S.C. FARLEY ELECTRICAL LIMITED
  • SALAMIR SERVICES LTD
  • SB – WHITE TO BROWN LIMITED
  • SEASONS WINDLESHAM LTD
  • SUM TECHNICAL SERVICES LTD
  • SWIM ACCELERATION LIMITED
  • SYGIX LIMITED
  • T&R CONSTRUCTION LTD
  • THE DELTA PROTECTION GROUP LIMITED
  • THE DIRTY SOULS LTD
  • THE KROWD VTG LTD
  • TRANSFORMING YOUNG PEOPLE LTD
  • U&S HIRE LTD
  • UKBC LIMITED
  • UWCB (SOUTHERN REGION) LIMITED
  • VINTAGE SOCIAL CARE LTD
  • WILLIAMS ASHTON & ANDERSON LIMITED
  • WOODSTOCK SHUTTER COMPANY LIMITED
  • 360GLOBALNET LTD

How CPA Can Help

Protect Your Cashflow in Volatile Conditions

When oil jumps, confidence falls and insolvencies rise, payment behaviour changes quickly.

Early intervention improves recovery rates.
Structured escalation protects relationships.
Clear credit monitoring reduces write-offs.

If your customers are slowing down, do not wait.
Strengthen your credit control before pressure turns into loss.

Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on️ 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.

When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.