Business news 22 October 2025

UK inflation has defied expectations by holding steady for a third straight month at 3.8%, while government borrowing hit its highest September level in five years. Economists are divided over the Chancellor’s decision to blame Brexit for sluggish productivity, and new reports suggest her upcoming autumn Budget could bring tax rises for professionals, investors, and even retail importers. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey has warned of risks building in the private credit market, and gold has seen its biggest price swing in over a decade.

James Salmon, Operations Director.

🧑🏻‍🦱 Inflation steady, borrowing surges

UK inflation held at **3.8% in September**, surprising the Bank of England and economists who had forecast a rise. The news coincided with government borrowing reaching **£20.2bn**, the highest September figure in five years. Debt now stands at 95.3% of GDP. Rachel Reeves blamed Brexit for the UK’s “economic drag,” though senior economists countered that productivity issues **pre-date 2016** and mirror EU trends.

🧑🏻‍💼 Reeves targets professionals in tax shake-up

The Chancellor is expected to announce a new **levy on LLP members**, such as lawyers, GPs, and accountants, closing what Treasury officials call a “NIC loophole.” A typical partner could face an extra **£23,000** in tax, prompting warnings of reduced hiring and practice restructuring.

🚨 Bailey warns on private credit

Bank of England Governor **Andrew Bailey** said recent corporate failures may signal deeper stress in the private credit market. He urged “stress testing” for private equity and lending firms to prevent a replay of 2008-style contagion.

🧑🏻‍🧙‍♂️ FCA takes over AML supervision

The Government has appointed the **FCA as the Single Professional Services Supervisor**, consolidating anti-money laundering oversight. The move reduces the SRA and HMRC’s roles, sparking debate over whether the FCA is suited to regulate legal services.

💸 Budget jitters for investors

Market analysts warn that proposed **CGT and dividend tax increases** could wipe **£4bn** off the FTSE’s value. Cutting the tax-free pension lump sum could also reduce annual pension contributions by **£800m**.

💰 Pension costs spark business panic

Research from Barnett Waddingham shows nearly **one in five firms fear insolvency** if employer pension contributions rise. Over 30% say they would freeze hiring or reduce staff. Employers are urging restraint from the revived Pensions Commission.

🛠️ Fraud backlog hits SMEs

HMRC is taking up to **six months** to resolve VAT fraud cases, leaving businesses unable to file returns. Devon farmer **Chas Brooke** says he has lost **£5,000** as a result, calling the situation “completely bonkers.” Experts demand a dedicated taskforce.

👥 Minimum wage rise risks youth jobs

The **Resolution Foundation** warns that scrapping lower youth wage rates could push the number of **Neets** (16–24-year-olds not in work or study) above **1 million** for the first time since 2012. Employers say targeted tax credits could help reverse the trend.

🛒 Retailers call to end import relief abuse

Retailers are urging the Government to **scrap the £135 duty-free import rule**, saying it gives unfair advantage to overseas sellers. Analysts at BDO predict reform is likely in next month’s Budget.

🌐 Amazon outage exposes cloud risks

Amazon suffered a **15-hour cloud outage**, disrupting operations at firms from Apple to McDonald’s. Analysts called it the company’s worst failure since 2021 and a stark reminder of dependence on a few global tech giants.

🚀 OpenAI browser launch shakes tech sector

OpenAI unveiled its new **AI-powered browser, ChatGPT Atlas**, prompting a **4.8% drop in Alphabet shares**. Analysts say the rise of AI browsers could permanently change how users navigate the web.

Market Snapshot

  • FTSE 100: Opened up 0.7% at 9,487.95 after steady UK inflation data.
  • S&P 500 & Dow Jones: Both hit new record highs before fading on US–China tensions.
  • CAC 40 (France): Reached an all-time high of 8,258.86 despite political unease.
  • Gold: Stabilised near $4,140/oz after a 6.3% plunge — its steepest drop since 2013.
  • Natural Gas (EU): Flat at €32/MWh amid cooler weather and steady supply.
  • GBP/USD: Fell to 1.3343 on BoE rate-cut expectations.
  • EUR/USD: Weakened to 1.1625, pressured by a stronger dollar.
  • USD: Narrow trading range as investors reassess global risk sentiment.

💡CPA Insight

With inflation stuck, borrowing up, and policy uncertainty rising, small firms face a squeeze from all directions — higher compliance costs, delayed VAT returns, and labour pressures. Credit, meanwhile, may tighten if Bailey’s private debt warning proves accurate.

Now more than ever, cashflow protection and proactive credit control are vital

📞 Join the Credit Protection Association

Get real-time credit monitoring, debt recovery support, and practical guidance to safeguard your business against late payers.

Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 📞 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.

When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.

Insolvency Round-up

Appointments of Administrators:

  • METROPOLITANA LONDON LIMITED
  • OAKDALE ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS LIMITED

Appointments of Liquidators:

  • 360FORCE LTD
  • BROADGATE TRACK LTD
  • C4RM4X LTD
  • COLOPROTECT LIMITED
  • DIGITAL NATIVES (DNS) LIMITED
  • DICKINS HYDRO RESOURCES LIMITED
  • DYNAMIC ACCOUNTING & FINANCE LTD
  • ENLIGHTENED LEADERSHIP LIMITED
  • ENTERPRISE EVENTS LIMITED
  • GOLDEN PHOENIX CHINA LIMITED
  • IJT DIGITAL LIMITED
  • INGRAM TECHNOLOGIES LTD
  • KAYE & CAREY LIMITED
  • LESLIE WISE LIMITED
  • LUNTZ LIMITED
  • ONEIRA DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
  • P A ROSS CONSULTING LTD
  • P J DELANEY LIMITED
  • REWARD NETWORK LIMITED
  • REYNOLDS AND GREENE INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LIMITED
  • S E CONSULTING (LONDON) LTD
  • SUBZERO SOLUTIONS LIMITED
  • TAYLOR BUILT HOMES LIMITED
  • TECHNOLOGY SUPPLIES INTERNATIONAL LTD
  • TM REGIONAL NEW MEDIA LIMITED
  • WINGS SELLCO LIMITED
  • X SEED LANDSCAPE MAINTENANCE LIMITED
  • HUMBEL LTD

Petitions to Wind Up (Companies):

  • AGRITECH RENT & LEASE LIMITED
  • CYRUS’ APARTMENTS LTD
  • DEREK S. WOOD ASSOCIATES LIMITED
  • DEVELOPING NATION LIMITED
  • DPG PLUS LTD
  • EVERITT ROAD PROPERTIES LTD
  • FLOENERGY LTD
  • HHE (SCOTLAND) LTD
  • HOOD CONSTRUCTION SCOTLAND LTD
  • KINTAIL ASSETS LIMITED
  • NADICO LIMITED
  • OBAN JOINERY SERVICES LIMITED
  • PARK CONSTRUCTION & PLANT HIRE LTD
  • THE TWA TAMS LTD
  • TRIDENT WEST INDUSTRIES LTD
  • TYRONE CAPITAL PARTNERS LIMITED