Business news 23 May 2024
PMI’s, Politics, Growth concerns, Inflation, Government borrowing, markets, WFH, fraud, Nvidia, climate, house prices, vets, insolvencies & more business news that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
Breaking PMI news
UK May Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.3 from 49.1 in April and 47.1 a year ago; Above All Estimates (which had ranged from 48 to 50.1)
UK May Flash Services PMI Drops to 52.9 – well below estimates of 54.7 – falling from 55 in April and 55.2 a year ago.
Small firms concerned over growth
A poll by PayPal UK shows that almost half of UK SMEs do not think they will expand over the next two years. The survey of 500 SMEs saw 43% say that a lack of technical knowledge will hinder their ability to expand. While 62% of firms said online sales are crucial for expanding their organisation, 31% do not feel they possess the necessary technical skills to thrive in this area. It was also shown that 28% lack faith in their understanding of online and social media marketing, while 24% do not feel they know enough about ensuring their website is secure and safe for customers. Other significant barriers to growth include consumers purchasing less and insufficient funds for marketing. The study found that 73% of businesses have noticed changes in consumer behaviour over the past two years, including a rise in online shopping (23%), demands for discounts (32%) and an increase in ‘abandoned baskets’ online (13%). Quizzed on their future goals, SMEs said increasing revenue (61%), improving customer loyalty (27%) and expanding their e-commerce operations (14%).
Politics
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called a general election for July 4. Sunak called the election “the moment for Britain to choose its future”. The prime minister has gambled that improved inflation figures and a recovering economy will help him overturn Labour’s 20-point opinion poll lead. Parliament will be suspended tomorrow and then formally shut down on Thursday next week ahead of an official five-week election campaign.
Parties to focus on tax as election looms
With Rishi Sunak announcing that there will be a general election on July 4, the Telegraph’s Charles Hymas says the Prime Minister and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer are already clashing over the economy and taxes. He says Mr Sunak aims to highlight his tax cuts, including a reduction in National Insurance, while accusing Labour of having a secret agenda to raise taxes. Meanwhile, Sir Keir is vowing to keep taxes “as low as possible” without specific cuts. David Wilcock and Greg Heffer in the Mail also suggest that taxes – along with economic growth and the cost-of-living crisis – will be “at the front and centre of the general election battle.”
Borrowing increase hits Chancellor’s tax cut hopes
Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows that Government borrowing hit the highest level in three years in April. Total borrowing climbed to £20.5bn in April, with this exceeding the £19.3bn predicted by economists and the £19bn forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The data shows that the Government generated less tax after announcing a second cut to National Insurance, with contributions falling by £1.5bn as a result. Britain’s total borrowing bill for the financial year to the end of March 2024 is now estimated at £121.4bn. The OBR had forecast a bill of £114bn. Martin Beck, economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said the fiscal year “got off to a disappointing start for the UK’s public finances,” with borrowing exceeding the OBR forecast. Suggesting that “this under-performance is likely to continue for the rest of the financial year,” he added: “It’s unlikely that OBR forecast revisions would offer the Government scope for another tax-cutting fiscal event before the next general election.” Alex Kerr of Capital Economics said the Chancellor will be “disappointed that April’s figures do not provide more scope for tax cuts at a fiscal event later this year,” adding: “Moreover, we expect slower wage growth to dampen tax receipts growth later this year.”
Inflation falls but remains above target
Inflation has fallen to its lowest level since July 2021, hitting 2.3% in the year to April compared to 3.2% in March. Despite the decline, which was driven by falling gas and electricity prices, inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target of 2%. The Office for National Statistics data shows that while prices for all goods decreased by 0.8% in April, services inflation remained elevated at 5.9%. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the figures mark a “major moment for the economy, with inflation back to normal.” He added: “Brighter days are ahead, but only if we stick to the plan to improve economic security and opportunity for everyone.” Analysts believe the higher-than-expected inflation figures mean the Bank of England is likely to hold off on cutting interest rates until August or September. Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said expectations of a rate cut in June had “plummeted from 50/50 to just over 10%” across financial markets. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said that even though inflation is now in “striking distance” of the 2% target, the most recent data “may not be enough to sway an early rate cut,” while Suren Thiru, economics director at the ICAEW, said the “underwhelming” drop in inflation suggests that the UK is “rather stumbling back towards” the Bank’s 2% target.
Markets
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.55% at 8370.33 and the Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.43% at 5025.17.
Overnight in the US the S&P 500 fell 0.27% to 5307 and the Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 16801.5 as FED minutes showed some of the members were inclined to raise rates to combat inflation and favour higher for longer rates.
The pound is currently worth $1.2725 and €1.173. Brent is at $82.53, Gold is at $2366. The FTSE 100 is flat at 8370 and the Eurostoxx 50 is up 0.36% at 5043.
House prices climb 1.8%
House prices increased 1.8% year-on-year in March, according to a house price index from HMRC Land Registry which is based on completed sales rather than advertised or approved prices. The annual increase recorded in March, which was the first since June 2023, has taken the average house price to £283,000.
Brits lost more than £1bn to fraud in 2023
Britons lost more than £1bn to fraudsters last year, according to financial services trade body UK Finance. Criminals stole a total of £1.17bn through unauthorised and authorised fraud, with total losses down 4% on a year earlier. The report also shows that banks prevented a further £1.25bn of unauthorised fraud through their security systems. UK Finance said there were 2.97m confirmed cases of fraud in 2023, with authorised push payment (APP) fraud cases up 12% to 232,429. While the number of cases rose, their combined value fell 5% to £459.7m. The data also reveals a sharp increase in card ID theft, with a 74% increase in cases and losses jumping 53% to £79.1m.
Barclays to tell staff they must be in the office
Barclays Plc is among a number of banks looking at new US regulations on supervising staff working from home and deciding that it is better to require affected staff to just come into the office five days a week. The regulator Finra however retorted Stop blaming us. “There is no rule requiring registered persons to work from an office five days a week”
Nuclear Wales
The government has said it aims to build a large nuclear power plant in northern Wales as it seeks to boost the stable, low-carbon electricity source alongside wind farms to reach its climate goal with it looking to start talks with international energy companies to try and build the power plant at Wylfa on the island of Anglesey
Nvidia
Nvidia’s results offered the grand finale to a surprisingly strong earnings season for Big Tech. Nvidia punched through $1,000 in premarket trading (the stock had been below $200 in early 2023), after the chipmaker’s bullish estimate beating sales forecast delivered on AI hopes. Analysts celebrated the results and raised their targets on the stock and the whole US market is expected to be boosted.“The next industrial revolution has begun,” declared chief executive Jensen Huang, as his company delivered a 262% year-on-year revenue increase to $26 billion, safely beating prior estimates of $24.6 billion. The giant chipmaker also forecast second-quarter revenue would be about $28 billion, beating the $26.8 billion predicted by analysts.
Climate
The heavy storms we have experienced recently in the UK, hitting travel and business have been 20% more intense because of the 1.2C change in global temperatures because of climate change according to a study by the World Weather Attribution group. The intense storm rainfall we experienced in the last year would only happen every 50 years in a pre-industrial climate. But now we experience it every five years. And if temperature rises reach 2C, these storms will be happening every three years, the report found.
Anglo American
Anglo American rejected a third takeover proposal from rival BHP Group on Wednesday, as the companies agreed to extend talks deadline by one week. “The Board considered BHP’s Latest Proposal carefully, concluded it does not meet expectations of value delivered to Anglo American’s shareholders, and has unanimously rejected it,” Anglo American Chairman Stuart Chambers said in a statement on the London Stock Exchange website. The British miner confirmed the third proposal from BHP offered about £29.34 per Anglo American share, based on undisturbed share prices as of market close on April 23.
National Grid
National Grid reported that pretax profit in the year ended March 31 fell to £3.05 billion from £3.59 billion a year earlier. Operating profit dropped to £4.48 billion from £4.88 billion. Revenue fell to £19.85 billion versus £21.66 billion a year ago.
Concert tickets
The US Justice Department and a group of states a reportedly about to sue Live Nation Entertainment Inc. for antitrust violations related to Ticketmaster’s unrivaled control of concert ticket sales.
Rolls-Royce
Rolls-Royce chief executive Tufan Erginbilgic said the engine maker made a “strong start” in the first four months of 2024 and maintained guidance for the full year. Rather than revenues or other metrics, the statement provided an update on the most keenly watched metric for the group, the long-term service agreement large engine flying hours at its civil aerospace arm. This figure was said to have returned to 100% of the levels from pre-pandemic 2019, which was lower than some more optimistic analysts expected.
Vets
Britain’s antitrust regulator, the CMA, will open a full-blown investigation into the veterinary sector, having previously flagged issues with poor competition in pricing and access to pet medicine. Shares in UK veterinary services firm CVS Group and retailer Pets at Home dropped. A umber of Private equity firms who have been active in the sector will also be concerned.
Brits working from abroad could see two tax bills
Employees who take advantage of flexible working and work from overseas could end up paying tax twice, RSM has warned, saying staff could be liable for income tax both in the UK and abroad. It is also noted that businesses may, in certain circumstances, be liable to pay local corporation tax. Analysis by RSM shows that more than a third of employers now allow staff to work outside of Britain. Pawandeep Srai of RSM said the pandemic has “fundamentally changed the way in which we work now and for the long term,” adding: “For many, this means greater flexibility including working while on holiday, but working from a beach is not without risk for individuals and employers.”
Latest Insolvencies
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Why should you become a CPA member!
The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid, since 1914. We have seen many financial crises, this last one was particularly deadly for suppliers fand we are still seeing elevated insolvencies as businesses struggle.
CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. And we provide credit information so you can monitor and assess your key customers.
Unlike other credit management companies, we offer our members a fixed annual subscription regardless of how high the debt value maybe!
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections
Do you have a commercial late payer that is causing you grief? Use CPA’s no-win, no-fee, commercial debt recovery service!
If you have a particular business customer who is late paying and causing you sleepless nights, why not offer it to CPA for purchase on recourse?
CPA’s collection department will then pursue the debt. We will be liable for any costs incurred and then when we have recovered the debt, we will pay you the net principle debt recovered less our percentage.
Once you have enjoyed that success then you can consider the more cost effective membership which includes our Overdue Account Recovery service and Status/Credit reports as well as a range of other complimentary services.
Just call 020 8846 0000 and ask for Godfrey Nelson or Cris Shirley (business hours) or email debtpurchase@cpa.co.uk today.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.
Get compensated for previous late payments
Have you been paid late by business customers in the last six years?
Maybe you no longer work with them. Under legislation, you are entitled to compensation you for those late payments you have suffered.
You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!
Claim late payment compensation (LPC) from former business customers who paid you late in the last six years!
CPA (LPC) Recoveries is using our bespoke software and decades of experience to do just that for our clients
Check our compensation calculator to see how much your business could be owed!
Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.