Business news 4 March 2026
Some of the business headlines, market news, insolvencies & other stories that we thought would interest our members.
James Salmon, Operations Director.
UK Growth Cut As Oil Shock Builds Fiscal Pressure
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement was immediately overshadowed by global turmoil, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) cutting its 2026 UK growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.1% and warning that the outlook is now “particularly uncertain” following the Middle East conflict.
Inflation is forecast at 2.3% for 2026 (down from 2.5%), but surging oil and gas prices threaten that path. The OBR also expects unemployment to peak at 5.33% this year before easing gradually. Youth unemployment has climbed to 16.1%, with 957,000 people classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET). Net migration forecasts have been reduced by 60,000 annually to 235,000 on average between 2026 and 2030, potentially affecting labour supply and long-term GDP.
Meanwhile, traders have dramatically scaled back expectations of Bank of England rate cuts — from nearly 90% probability to just 15% — as rising energy prices push bond yields higher and complicate the inflation outlook.
The fiscal backdrop is tightening further. Meeting defence spending commitments could cost an additional £40bn, while energy-driven borrowing costs may strain future budgets. The UK withheld support for US military action against Iran, and trade relations with the US could face pressure as geopolitical tensions deepen.
Why it matters: Slower growth, higher unemployment and fewer rate cuts increase payment risk, extend debtor timelines and raise borrowing costs for SMEs already managing tight margins.
Tax & Government Pressure Intensifies
The UK tax burden is projected to reach £1.4 trillion annually by 2030/31 — 38.5% of GDP — a historic high. Frozen income tax thresholds are expected to raise £67bn as more earners are pulled into higher bands.
Capital gains tax receipts are forecast to rise to £5bn annually by 2030/31, driven by stronger equity prices and reduced annual allowances. Pension salary sacrifice reforms face political backlash, with questions raised over projected revenue figures.
At the same time, industry leaders are urging the Chancellor to scrap the 78% windfall tax on North Sea oil producers, warning it threatens energy investment and jobs just as oil prices surge.
Why it matters: Higher personal and corporate tax pressure reduces disposable income, tightens client cashflow and increases the likelihood of delayed invoice payments.
Energy Shock Drives Global Market Turbulence
Oil prices have surged nearly 12% in two days, with Brent trading near $84 per barrel. Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed has disrupted shipping, prompting US insurance guarantees and naval escort promises for tankers.
On Tuesday:
- FTSE 100 fell 3%
- S&P 500 closed down almost 1%
- STOXX 600 dropped 3.2%
- Asian markets plunged, with South Korea’s Kospi down 12%
Bond yields have climbed as traders reassess inflation risks. The dollar has strengthened sharply, while sterling remains under pressure.
China’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0, signalling contraction, adding to global growth concerns.
Why it matters: Energy-driven inflation raises input costs, increases financing expenses and heightens default risk among energy-sensitive customers.
Housing & Construction: Fragile Foundations
The OBR forecasts average UK house prices will rise 16.4% by 2030/31, reaching £314,581. However, affordability remains strained as higher mortgage costs persist.
Construction is forecast to grow 4.5% in 2026, driven by defence, transport and energy infrastructure. Yet housebuilding and commercial projects remain fragile amid high financing costs, labour shortages and planning delays.
Why it matters: Construction and property supply chains are heavily credit-based — uneven recovery increases the risk of late payment and contractor insolvency.
Retail Prices Ease — But Margins Remain Tight
Shop price inflation slowed to 1.1% in February, down from 1.5% in January. Food inflation eased to 3.5%, though still elevated. Retailers are using promotions to protect demand.
Why it matters: Discounting may support sales volumes but compresses margins, reducing retailers’ resilience if customer payments slow.
Compliance Warning For Professional Services
The Financial Conduct Authority has warned that supervision of anti-money laundering controls in professional services “could be improved,” urging oversight bodies to address weaknesses.
Separately, OpenAI signalled changes to surveillance restrictions in US government contracts, highlighting broader regulatory and policy shifts in technology governance.
Why it matters: Compliance scrutiny increases administrative costs for professional firms — those costs often flow through to slower payments and tighter client billing cycles.
Market Snapshot
Equity Indices
- FTSE 100: 10,451.98
- STOXX 600: 604.96
- DAX: 23,831.66
- CAC 40: 8,092.22
- S&P 500: 6,816.63
- Dow Jones: 48,501.27
- Nasdaq: 22,516.69
- Nikkei 225: 54,245.54
- Hang Seng: 25,249.48
- Shanghai Composite: 4,082.47
Currencies
- GBP/USD: 1.3351
- EUR/GBP: 0.8692
- GBP/JPY: 210.09
Sterling remains soft against the dollar as investors favour safe-haven assets.
Commodities
- Brent Crude: $83.98
- WTI Crude: $76.79
- Gold: $5,167.43
- Copper: $12,955
Oil volatility is the dominant driver of global pricing expectations.
Global markets have been gripped by the escalating Middle East conflict, with the US and Israeli offensive against Iran now in its fifth day triggering widespread risk-off sentiment. European markets suffered their worst session since April’s “Liberation Day” selloff on Tuesday, with the STOXX 600 down 3.2%, while US markets saw the Dow plunge over 1,200 points. Overnight, Asian markets bore the brunt of the selloff, with South Korea’s Kospi crashing a record 12% and Japan’s Nikkei falling 4.4% as concerns mounted over oil price shocks and inflation.
The dollar surged to its best two-day performance since April as investors sought safe havens, while the euro tumbled below its 200-day moving average. Oil prices rallied nearly 12% over two days—the biggest gain since 2020—as the Strait of Hormuz faced near-total shipping disruption. Gold experienced extreme volatility, initially falling as traders liquidated to cover equity losses before rebounding on renewed safe-haven demand.
European markets are showing tentative signs of stabilization this morning, with the STOXX 600 up 0.3%, though the outlook remains highly uncertain as the conflict continues and energy prices threaten to stoke inflation and dampen growth prospects .
Insolvency Notices
Appointment of Liquidators
- ESC INNS LIMITED
- FERDANI UK LIMITED
- FST CAPITAL LIMITED
- HALL DAVIDSON HOLDINGS LIMITED
- HIRD RAIL SERVICES LIMITED
- INGEAR RESEARCH LIMITED
- MB SONOGRAPHY LIMITED
- MC BRICKWORK CONTRACTORS LTD
- MORTGAGE ANALYST LIMITED
- PETER BETTS CONSULTING LIMITED
- REDIFIRST LIMITED
- RESOURCE (MARKETING RESEARCH) LIMITED
- SASSEN HOLDINGS LIMITED
- WEMBLEY DRUM CENTRE LIMITED
Petitions to Wind Up (Companies)
- CHS TRUCK & TRAILER ACCIDENT REPAIR CENTRE (LONDON) LTD
- CREATE DEVELOPMENTS (ARMADALE) LIMITED
- CREATE DEVELOPMENTS (ELSWICK) LTD
- G4 EAST LIMITED
- GRANDKIDZ LTD
- HORNBEAM COURT LTD
- J A D TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
- MEDINA DOMAIN LTD
What CPA Can Do In Times Like This
When growth slows, rates stay higher and energy costs surge, cashflow pressure builds quietly before it becomes visible.
Early action is critical.
CPA helps Members:
- Recover overdue invoices quickly and professionally
- Monitor trading partners before risk escalates
- Strengthen credit control processes
- Protect relationships while improving liquidity
In volatile markets, protecting cashflow is not optional — it is strategic.
Just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on️ 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.
When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.
The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.