UK Business News Today: 15 July 2026 | Economy, Markets & Insolvencies

UK businesses begin Wednesday facing a difficult combination of weak growth, higher borrowing costs, cautious consumer spending and renewed pressure from rising oil prices. Softer US inflation provided some relief to markets, but the escalating conflict around the Strait of Hormuz continues to threaten energy supplies, transport costs and future inflation. Incoming prime minister Andy Burnham is also under pressure to address business rates, energy costs and the wider tax burden. England’s World Cup semi-final against Argentina offers a welcome national distraction and a potential boost for hospitality, although employers may need to show some understanding on Thursday morning, whatever the result.

James Salmon, Operations Director.

Reader notice: There will be a short break in the daily business news blogs after today. The next edition will be published on Tuesday 21 July 2026.

Key Developments

• UK ten-year borrowing costs moved above 5%, reducing the incoming government’s fiscal room for manoeuvre.
• Oil prices remain elevated as renewed US–Iran hostilities threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• UK retail sales growth slowed sharply in June as consumers remained cautious.
• Business groups are increasing pressure for reforms to business rates and commercial energy costs.
• England face Argentina tonight for a place in the World Cup final against Spain.

Economy & Policy

Bailey warns that low growth must become a national priority

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned incoming prime minister Andy Burnham that weak economic growth remains one of the UK’s most serious structural problems. Bailey said the country’s potential growth rate has roughly halved since the financial crisis, while productivity and living standards have improved only slowly.

He described the economy as operating in a relatively soft environment following repeated negative supply shocks. The Bank is open to further regulatory simplification, but Bailey stressed that a robust banking framework remains essential to financial stability.

Why it matters: Weak productivity and economic growth can suppress demand, extend customer payment times and make it harder for SMEs to absorb higher wages, finance and operating costs.

Burnham faces an early warning over inflation and the economy

Senior civil servants are reportedly preparing to warn Andy Burnham that he will inherit a worsening economic outlook when he becomes prime minister. Internal government forecasts are said to have revised inflation up to 3.2% for the final quarter of 2026.

Officials are also considering the potential consequences of an extended US–Iran conflict. Oil could reportedly rise towards $150 a barrel if a ceasefire is not restored, creating a renewed inflation shock for the UK.

Burnham is expected to be advised that direct leader-level engagement will be required on Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and the wider consequences of the Iran conflict.

Why it matters: Higher inflation and interest rates increase pressure on household budgets and business costs, which can weaken customer demand and raise the risk of late payment.

UK borrowing costs rise above 5%

UK government borrowing costs exceeded 5% for the first time since May during Tuesday’s global bond sell-off. The ten-year gilt yield peaked at 5.05% before easing slightly following the softer US inflation figures.

Yields nevertheless remain elevated just before Burnham takes office, leaving the new administration with less fiscal headroom and higher costs when financing government borrowing.

Why it matters: Higher government bond yields can feed into commercial loans, mortgages and other borrowing costs, tightening cashflow across both SMEs and their customers.

US inflation provides temporary relief

US consumer prices fell by 0.4% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising by 0.5% in May. It was the largest monthly decline since April 2020 and took the annual inflation rate to 3.5%, below the expected 3.8%.

Core CPI was unchanged during the month, producing an annual rate of 2.6%, compared with expectations of 2.9%. Falling energy costs were the biggest contributor, with the energy index down 5.7%.

The relief may be temporary. The data reflects a month in which oil prices had fallen substantially, and renewed conflict around the Strait of Hormuz has already begun to reverse that movement.

Tax & Government

Wealthy individuals prepare for possible Capital Gains Tax changes

Some of Britain’s wealthiest individuals are reportedly developing contingency plans ahead of possible Capital Gains Tax reforms under the incoming government. Business leaders are consulting international tax advisers amid expectations that Burnham may review CGT before his first Budget.

Ed Miliband has been discussed as a possible chancellor, while Reform UK Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick has argued that Burnham lacks a mandate to impose further tax increases.

Modelling suggests substantial land value tax bills

Tax Policy Associates has assessed the possible effect of a land value tax in London and the South East. On an assumed annual levy of 1.28% of land value, more than 21,000 London homes could face bills exceeding £50,000.

The modelling also suggests that around 576,000 properties could receive annual bills above £10,000. Dan Neidle, the think-tank’s founder, said he supported land value taxation in principle but believed the immediate effects could be too severe and politically difficult.

Property experts call for Stamp Duty reform

Property experts are urging the government to reconsider Stamp Duty, arguing that it discourages growing families from moving and prevents older homeowners from downsizing.

Critics say this reduces the number of suitable properties reaching the market and makes it harder for first-time buyers to find homes. Suggested reforms include abolishing the tax on primary residences or allowing buyers to spread payments over several years.

Labour targets the low-value import loophole

Labour plans to impose new fees on low-value imports sold by overseas online retailers, including Shein, Temu and AliExpress. Goods worth £135 or less are currently exempt from import duty.

Ministers say the exemption places UK retailers at a competitive disadvantage and creates administrative costs. The government aims to introduce the changes by October 2028, six months earlier than previously planned, while maintaining exemptions for low-value gifts sent between individuals.

Business Rates & Commercial Costs

Calls grow for a hybrid business rates system

The Real Rates Reform Alliance is calling for a hybrid business rates system to reduce the burden on physical premises. A Heart of London Business Alliance poll found that 47% of businesses had experienced higher business rates since April 2026.

Affected firms are responding by raising prices, delaying investment or reducing staff. The proposed alternative would introduce a 2% levy on online sales and use the proceeds to cut business rates for physical businesses by 37%.

Burnham faces pressure to deliver wider rates reform

Industry organisations have warned Burnham that failing to reform business rates could breach Labour’s manifesto commitments. UKHospitality chief executive Allen Simpson said the system must be comprehensively changed to give high street businesses a fairer position against online competitors.

The hospitality sector has already experienced an estimated 130,000 job losses, with Simpson warning that the total could become substantially worse without reform.

CBI calls for lower commercial energy costs

The Confederation of British Industry has urged Burnham to remove net zero levies from business energy bills. CBI chief economist Louise Hellem said high UK energy prices are causing 40% of businesses to cut investment.

Retail & Consumer

UK retail sales growth slows sharply

UK retail sales increased by 1.9% year on year in June, according to the British Retail Consortium-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor. That was down from growth of 3.7% in May and below expectations.

Like-for-like sales growth also slowed, easing from 3.4% to 1.7%, compared with forecasts for a 2.7% increase. The figures suggest consumers remain cautious despite the warmer weather and major sporting events.

Thames Water returns to profit but debt continues to rise

Thames Water reported post-tax income of £113 million for the year to the end of March, compared with a £1.51 billion loss in the previous year. The return to profit followed a 40% increase in customer bills.

However, net debt rose from £16.8 billion to £18.5 billion. The company said it continued to finance its operations through debt and internally generated cashflow.

Pollution incidents fell by 18%, but Thames achieved only slightly more than half of its performance targets. Customer complaints increased by 77%, with bill complaints accounting for more than three quarters of the total.

The company believes it has sufficient debt funding to continue operating through the fourth quarter of 2026. Investors are reportedly waiting to see how the new Burnham government approaches the business before providing additional capital.

Industry, Technology & Investment

Questions surround proposed £15 billion Scottish AI data centre

British property investor Martin Bellamy proposed the development of a £15 billion Scottish data centre intended to become one of Europe’s largest AI computing facilities.

However, the proposed site remains undeveloped, while Bellamy’s company, AI Pathfinder, has reportedly lost staff and become involved in legal disputes. Local communities say there is little visible evidence of the promised investment or jobs.

The Scottish government is also considering freezing new data centre applications because of concerns about their potential effect on energy resources.

IBM shares fall after earnings warning

IBM shares fell by around 25% after the company warned that second-quarter earnings, due on 22 July, would fall short of analysts’ expectations.

The computing group said customers had prioritised spending on AI infrastructure, memory and hardware rather than software. The announcement intensified investor concerns that the AI boom may divert corporate technology budgets away from traditional software providers.

Energy, Infrastructure & Climate

UK climate increasingly outside historic norms

The number of days in London when temperatures exceed 30°C has reportedly quadrupled since the 1980s. The State of the UK Climate Report suggests the country is warming by around 0.25°C per decade.

In southeast England, temperatures on the hottest days are now around 4.5°C higher. Winters are becoming wetter, while sea levels around the UK have risen by approximately 20 centimetres since 1901, with the increase accelerating over the past three decades.

Researchers warned that UK housing, transport, agriculture, energy and healthcare systems were designed for a climate that is no longer representative of current conditions.

Wednesday’s weather

Most of the UK can expect sunny skies, with light cloud and sunny spells in northeast and southwest England. London is forecast to reach around 28°C, with an overnight low of 15°C.

Belfast should remain sunny, while Edinburgh is expected to experience sunny intervals.

International & Trade

Trump drops proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz cargo charge

President Donald Trump has withdrawn plans for a 20% charge on cargo travelling through the Strait of Hormuz after objections from US allies in the Gulf.

Trump said the expected revenue would instead be replaced by forthcoming trade and investment commitments from Gulf states into the United States.

The decision does not signal a wider de-escalation. The US has resumed its blockade of Iranian shipping and carried out further strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and along Iran’s coast.

World Cup & Business

Spain await the winner of England against Argentina

Spain reached the World Cup final after defeating tournament favourites France 2–0 in Tuesday’s semi-final. The final will take place in New Jersey on Sunday.

Spain will face either England or Argentina, who meet in the second semi-final tonight. The fixture renews one of international football’s most significant rivalries.

The Falkland Islands dispute has received renewed attention during the build-up, although political and sporting figures on both sides have encouraged supporters to focus on the match itself.

FIFA is reportedly considering extending the final’s half-time interval from 15 to 25 minutes to accommodate a musical performance featuring BTS, Madonna and Shakira.

For pubs, restaurants, food delivery businesses and evening retailers, tonight’s match could produce another welcome increase in demand. Employers may also need to be understanding on Thursday morning, whether England win or lose.

Global Market Summary

Global markets were pulled in two directions during the past 24 hours. Softer US inflation encouraged investors to reduce expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate rise, supporting equities and bonds. At the same time, renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices elevated and increased fears of another inflation shock.

UK and European markets

The FTSE 100 closed Tuesday at 10,529.39, up 0.3%, after recovering from an earlier fall. HSBC, BP, Shell and Airtel Africa were among the notable contributors.

The STOXX Europe 600 finished at 642.10, up 0.2%. Banks, industrial companies, basic resources and energy shares led the recovery following the US inflation release.

The Euro STOXX 50 closed at 6,280.19, a rise of 0.15%.

Germany’s DAX ended approximately 0.12% higher. Its Wednesday morning level was around 24,989.66.

France’s CAC 40 was broadly flat to slightly higher on Tuesday. Its Wednesday morning level was approximately 8,364.05.

European markets opened more cautiously on Wednesday, with weaker Chinese growth affecting mining companies. Strong updates from ASML and Richemont provided some support.

US markets

The S&P 500 closed at 7,543.59, up 0.38%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 52,508.27, up 0.02%. JPMorgan’s 9% rise helped offset IBM’s record fall.

The Nasdaq Composite rose by approximately 0.9%. Semiconductor and AI hardware companies outperformed as investors moved away from some traditional software businesses.

Asian markets

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at 68,751.51, up 1.5%, as lower US inflation and ASML’s positive outlook supported technology shares.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.4% to 24,681.10, its fourth consecutive positive session.

South Korea’s Kospi rebounded by around 6.2% to 7% following a sharp technology-led sell-off. SK Hynix recovered strongly after its earlier decline.

China’s Shanghai Composite fell 0.3% to 3,955.58 after second-quarter GDP growth of 4.3% missed the official target range. Industrial production and retail sales were stronger, but weak lending and money supply data limited confidence.

Market drivers

The main positive catalyst was the weaker-than-expected US inflation report, which reduced the perceived likelihood of a July Federal Reserve rate increase.

The principal risk remains the US–Iran conflict. Tanker attacks, renewed US strikes, shipping restrictions and warnings over the safety of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping energy and freight markets volatile.

Corporate news also produced sharp sector movements. JPMorgan rallied after strong results, IBM suffered a historic decline and ASML raised guidance on continued AI-related semiconductor demand.

Currencies

GBP/USD traded around 1.3390, with sterling strengthening by approximately 0.3% as the dollar weakened following the US inflation report.

GBP/EUR was approximately 1.1723, based on EUR/GBP of 0.8530. Sterling was slightly stronger against the euro.

The dollar fell against most major currencies as traders reduced expectations of an immediate US rate rise.

Commodities

Brent crude traded around $85.41 a barrel on Wednesday morning after rising by more than 5% on Tuesday and briefly reaching approximately $87.

WTI crude stood at around $79.88 a barrel.

Gold traded near $4,029.97 an ounce. It initially benefited from lower US inflation but later eased as higher oil prices revived concerns about future inflation and interest rates.

For UK businesses, the most important market signal is the renewed rise in oil. Sustained increases would affect transport, manufacturing, packaging, utilities and imported goods, while also reducing the likelihood of rapid interest-rate cuts.

Insolvency Watch

Administrations (4)

• ACTIVEWEAR GROUP LTD
• AGILE PROPERTY AND HOMES LIMITED
• ELDENS FINANCE LIMITED
• ST. GERARD’S SCHOOL TRUST

Liquidations (20)

• BOYD FARMING LIMITED
• CD PARTE ASSOCIATES LIMITED
• CHANELLE ANIMAL HEALTH LIMITED
• CHANELLE PET UK LIMITED
• DAVID IAN FURNITURE LIMITED
• DRACE INFRAESTRUCTURES UK LIMITED
• EFFECT PHOTONICS LTD
• ERSKINE NOMINEES LIMITED
• F P CARTONS HOLDINGS LTD
• FF POPLAR LIMITED
• GAL MSN THREE LIMITED
• LLOYTON COMMERCIAL & RAIL LTD
• MANSFIELD IT SERVICES LIMITED
• MELISSA AND DOUG LTD
• NORTH CASTLE STREET (NOMINEES) LIMITED
• OHOO LIMITED
• PROPHARMA AUDITING LIMITED
• RBS SEMPRA COMMODITIES LLP
• RED HOOK MEDIA LTD
• SMYTH & STEVENS PROPERTY PARTNERSHIP LTD

Winding-up Petitions (25)

• ARMAS GROUP LTD
• BRONZE TANNING AND BEAUTY SALON LTD
• CHERCOR LIMITED
• D S CONSTRUCTION 1 LIMITED
• G&D BUILDERS LIMITED
• G&R GROUNDWORK’S LTD
• HALATA PROPERTIES LTD
• HARLINGTON LAW LTD
• HENKA TRADING LTD
• INTERCITY MIDLANDS LIMITED
• IPSUM HVAC LTD
• J4 STORAGE LTD
• JACA ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS LIMITED
• KEY COIN ASSETS LTD
• LW LIFTINGS LTD
• MADE IN SCOTLAND AGENCY LTD
• MLB HOSPITALITY LTD
• NOTE ASSIST LIMITED
• PARAGON WORKS LIMITED
• SEAN JOHNSTON JOINERS LIMITED
• UNITE SECURITY ELECTRICAL & FIRE LTD
• VIGIPRO SECURITY & FM LTD
• VINOTHEC COMPASS LIMITED
• VOMOO LTD
• WEST LONDON BURGERS LTD

Protecting cashflow as costs and credit risks rise

Today’s news shows why strong sales figures or headline profits should never be viewed in isolation. Thames Water has returned to profit but continues to carry a growing debt burden. Retail sales are increasing more slowly, business borrowing costs are rising and many firms are cutting investment because of energy and property costs.

Businesses that sell on credit should review customers regularly, monitor changes in payment behaviour and act quickly when invoices become overdue. Delayed payments become harder to recover as financial pressures increase.

CPA can support businesses through:

• CreditCare credit reports on UK companies
• Ongoing debtor and customer monitoring
• Structured credit control support
• Professional recovery of overdue accounts
• Improved payment performance
• Ethical communication designed to preserve customer relationships

Call CPA on 020 8846 0000 during business hours, Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm.

Email PaidQuick@cpa.co.uk

Visit https://cpa.co.uk/contact-us/

When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.

The Credit Protection Association : Prompting Punctual Payments : Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.

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