UK Business News Today: 22 October 2026 | Economy, Markets & Insolvencies

Household financial pressures lead today’s briefing as banks prepare for higher unpaid debts, inflation accelerates and economists anticipate another interest rate rise. For SMEs selling on credit, the combination could weaken demand and payment performance. Meanwhile, the PHP security emergency highlights the cashflow consequences of disrupted digital services, while rising oil prices threaten further cost increases.

James Salmon, Operations Director.

Key Developments

Key Developments

• Banks face rising unsecured credit losses as household cash reserves shrink.
• Inflation reaches 3.5%, strengthening expectations of a November rate rise.
• Consumer confidence weakens despite stronger retail spending intentions.
• Critical PHP vulnerabilities disrupt websites, including CPA’s main site; our members’ area remains available.
• Oil prices rise sharply as technology shares retreat.

SME & Business Environment

Banks prepare for higher unpaid debts

UK banks are preparing for rising unpaid debts as household cash reserves reach a three-year low. Analysts anticipate around £4bn in combined loan-loss provisions for 2027, although mounting living costs could leave that insufficient. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Lento Tang warns that thinner financial buffers and greater reliance on unsecured borrowing could increase credit losses, with Barclays particularly exposed through cards and personal loans. Mortgage losses are expected to remain more contained.

Why it matters: The same household pressures can affect businesses offering consumer credit and feed through to the cashflow of retailers, service providers and their suppliers.

Consumer confidence weakens before the Budget

The BRC–Opinium survey shows economic expectations falling to −40 from −34 in September. Expectations for personal finances also weakened, to −18 from −15. However, retail spending expectations increased to 15 from five, showing that intended spending and financial confidence are moving in different directions.

Why it matters: Higher spending intentions do not necessarily indicate stronger capacity to pay; businesses should watch overdue balances alongside sales.

PHP disruption: a message to CPA members

Critical PHP vulnerabilities have prompted international warnings and precautionary website shutdowns. Security updates have been released, and the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre urges affected organisations to act immediately. Businesses should ask their hosting provider or IT support to confirm that affected systems have been identified and updated. National Cyber Security Centre

We apologise to members for any inconvenience caused by the loss of access to CPA’s main website today. Our members’ area remained operational and was unaffected by this disruption. Please bookmark members.cpa.co.uk so you can access it directly, independently of our main website.

Why it matters: Website disruption can interrupt orders, customer enquiries and payments, making alternative access routes an important part of business continuity.

Economy & Policy

Inflation and borrowing increase the pressure

UK inflation rose from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September, exceeding the 3.4% forecast, with fuel costs the main driver. Economists warn that transport and energy pressures could push inflation towards 4% by early 2027. September government borrowing reached £24.5bn, debt interest hit £10.9bn and public debt reached approximately £3trn. Borrowing over the financial year so far totalled £97.8bn, £6bn above the OBR forecast. The ONS confirms September’s inflation increase. Office for National Statistics

Why it matters: Rising prices squeeze household budgets and business margins, increasing the risk that customers delay payment.

Economists anticipate a November rate rise

RSM’s Thomas Pugh says stronger growth, lower unemployment and higher inflation make a November interest rate rise highly likely. The CBI’s Martin Sartorius also considers an increase firmly possible, while Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects further rises thereafter. These remain forecasts rather than an announced Bank of England decision.

Why it matters: Higher borrowing costs could further constrain customers’ disposable income and businesses’ working capital.

Housing market loses momentum

Annual UK house price growth slowed for a fourth consecutive month to 0.9% in August, down from 1.2% in July, with the average price at £273,000. London prices fell 2.2%, including declines of 14.3% in Westminster, 13.8% in Kensington and Chelsea, and 10.6% in Camden. PwC economist Paige Tao describes a market waiting for greater clarity ahead of the Budget.

Why it matters: Weaker housing activity can reduce work for estate agents, tradespeople, furnishings businesses and their suppliers.

Tax & Government

Chancellor promises lower business costs

John Healey says his 28 October Budget will support entrepreneurs, reduce regulation and back profitable businesses. Reported proposals include removing some reporting requirements for smaller enterprises, while he has ruled out a capital gains tax increase. He also acknowledges the pressure created by employment changes, regulation and taxes.

Why it matters: Reduced administration could help SMEs, but businesses need the published measures before assuming savings.

Business leaders press for tax reform

City leaders warn that higher bank taxes could weaken investment and lending; reversing the banking surcharge reduction from 8% to 3% could reportedly raise £2bn annually. Iceland’s Richard Walker wants stronger reinvestment incentives, under-25 National Insurance relief, training support and changes to corporation and property taxes. EY’s Chris Sanger calls for a predictable long-term strategy, including reviews of allowances and VAT reliefs, alongside digital tools to reduce administration.

Warehouse levy proposal dropped

UKHospitality chief executive Allen Simpson says proposed higher business rates on out-of-town warehouses were abandoned because of concerns about US trade repercussions. The proposal had been intended to help support high street businesses. The Chancellor has ruled it out, leaving the question of alternative support unresolved.

Inheritance tax receipts reach a record

The supplied report puts inheritance tax receipts at £4.7bn, up 7%, including £936m in September. Frozen thresholds and rising asset values continue to increase exposure, while annual receipts are forecast to rise from £8.5bn in 2025/26 to £9.5bn in 2026/27. The report estimates that pension changes from April 2027 will bring another 10,500 estates into scope and increase liabilities for 38,500 estates.

Why it matters: Family business owners should consider succession arrangements and potential estate liquidity needs with their advisers.

Industry & Investment

MPs demand stronger investment support

MPs have criticised the rejection of 13 of 47 investment recommendations, covering stock market reform, investor incentives, venture capital and public finance institutions. The Venture Capital Trust Association wants income tax relief restored from 20% to 30%. Separately, the Public Accounts Committee warns that insufficient support for scaling businesses could leave the UK behind in the technology race, and advocates greater public equity participation in funded companies.

Corporate results expose an uneven outlook

Tesla reported quarterly profit of $787m, down 43%, on broadly unchanged revenue of $28bn, and cut its 2026 capital spending target from $25bn to $20bn. Elon Musk also said a possible SpaceX merger was being explored; SpaceX separately reported $4.4bn quarterly profit. Meta’s revenue rose 26% to $64.6bn, alongside plans for non-voting shares and substantial reported legal liabilities. A separate Zuckerberg share arrangement would allow sales to meet tax liabilities without reducing voting control, alongside an eight-year headquarters-location commitment while he remains a full-time leader.

Barclays announced 5,000 job cuts as part of an AI-supported cost reduction programme following disappointing results. Sainsbury’s reported adjusted half-year pretax profit of £366m, up 5.2%, while SAP and Nokia benefited from cloud and data centre demand. Together, the results show that investment, employment and customer demand remain uneven across sectors.

Global Market Summary

Technology doubts reverse earlier gains

European markets retreated after Wednesday’s rally as Tesla’s spending reduction and uncertainty over AI investment unsettled investors. US futures indicated a weaker opening, with S&P 500 futures down 1.05% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.82%. China’s CSI 300 entered bear market territory, down 20% from its June peak, while disappointing Hermès sales added to concerns about Chinese consumer demand.

Currencies and commodities

Sterling traded at $1.3404, up 0.07%, and €1.1935, up 0.09%, supported by stronger UK inflation and rate expectations. The yen strengthened as investors sought shelter from technology market volatility.

Brent crude reached $112.10 a barrel, up $3.28, while WTI rose to $99.38, up $2.23, following reported deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia. Gold fell approximately $55.40 to $4,085 an ounce, as higher oil prices complicated the interest rate outlook. European gas prices also advanced as winter storage withdrawals began.

Why it matters: Energy increases can feed into fuel, delivery and production costs, while currency movements affect import bills and export competitiveness.

Insolvency Watch

Administrations (4)

• HAMILTON-CLARK LTD
• ISENTRA LTD
• MAVEN SUPPORT SERVICES LTD
• ULTRALEAP LIMITED

Liquidations (17)

• 12 ROUNDS BOXING LTD
• AMSOFT LTD
• CCS TAD LIMITED
• CORE SYSTEMS SOFTWARE LTD
• EVERYMIND LIMITED
• FOSTER HILL PROPERTIES (BEDFORD) LIMITED
• GRACE PROPERTIES (VECTIS) LIMITED
• ICE CONSULTING LIMITED
• J.HODGSON(MASHAM)LIMITED
• JR CONSULTANCY (LONDON) LTD
• MARQUEE ESTATES LIMITED
• MCM MEDICAL SERVICES LIMITED
• MSC WIRELESS LTD
• ONA DIGITAL LIMITED
• THEAKSTON ESTATES (INVESTMENTS) LIMITED
• WOMEN’S ULTRA SOUND CENTRES LIMITED
• ZARA INESON CREATIVE LIMITED

Winding-up Petitions (2)

• CT12303436 LIMITED
• KDR EVENTS LIMITED

Protecting cashflow as household pressures build

Today’s banking warnings underline why businesses should act promptly when payment patterns deteriorate. Where invoices become overdue, CPA can support recovery through the professional and considerate approach of its Overdue Account Recovery Service, designed to secure payment while preserving valuable customer relationships.

CreditCare credit reports and debtor monitoring can help identify changing business customer risk, supported by stronger credit control and early attention to overdue accounts.

Call CPA on 020 8846 0000 during business hours, Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm.
Email PaidQuick@cpa.co.uk.
Visit cpa.co.uk/contact-us/.

When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.

The Credit Protection Association : Prompting Punctual Payments : Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.

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