Brexit News 12th October 2017

Brexit was supposed to be taking shape by now. This was the month when it was expected  negotiations could move on from the thorny divorce issues to the  more positive future trading relationship.

Instead, with less than 18 months to until Britain tumbles out of the EU, deal or no deal, the two sides are still battling over what was meant to be the easy part, and the U.K. government is still battling itself on how to approach talks.

The chancellor is decidedly gloomier than that of his more pro-Brexit colleagues.  Previously he didn’t want to spend tax payer money on unnecessary contingency planning but he has now accepted that if progress isn’t made by January, we must start making plans for the no deal scenario. His pro brexit “colleagues” want to start straight away as a show of strength to their European counterparts.

A cloud of uncertainty

A “cloud of uncertainty” caused by Brexit is acting as a damper on the UK economy, according to the Chancellor. Philip Hammond told the House of Commons Treasury Committee yesterday that businesses and consumers were holding back on spending decisions until they see the outcome of Brexit talks in Brussels. Progress in negotiations needs to come “as soon as possible” to remove the drag on growth, he said. The chancellor’s comments came after the UK was the only major economy not to see its growth forecast upgraded in an International Monetary Fund report, which predicted it would slow from 1.8% in 2016 to 1.7% this year and 1.5% in 2018.

Hard Brexit plan to cost economy £400bn

A study by Rabobank has forecast that a hard Brexit with no trade deal will cost the economy £400bn by 2030. The research calculated that leaving the single market without a trade agreement in place would cost up to 18% of the UK’s GDP growth by 2030, compared with remaining in the EU.

Silver lining

Still, there’s one piece of potentially good news, from Germany: the government there wants the EU to be prepared to grant U.K. banks transitional access to the EU if the Brexit process drags on. German policy makers have warned of the risks to German companies of harming London as a financial center.

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