29th November 2017.

OECD Predicts Even Bleaker Picture Post-Brexit

The OECD expects Brexit to result in a sharp slowdown in UK growth, according to a new economic forecast.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released its November forecast, where it has projected UK GDP growth this year of 1.5 per cent, slowing to 1.2 per cent in 2018.

Paris-based multilateral think tank has forecast growth of just 1.1 per cent in 2019, when the UK is set to leave the EU.

The growth slowdown is due to continuing uncertainty over Brexit negotiations and the impact of higher inflation on household purchasing power,” said the OECD, adding that there would be a “moderate” rise in the UK’s current 4.3 per cent unemployment rate.

These growth figures are up on the OECD’s September forecast of growth of just 1 per cent.
The data is based on the scenario that the  UK will secure a trade and transition agreement with the EU, to begin after March 2019. If we walk away without a deal, OECD forecasts an even bleaker landscape.

The OECD’s projections are weaker than the predictions of the Treasury’s official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which projected last week that UK growth in 2018 would be 1.4 per cent, and 1.3 per cent in 2019.

The OECD was most concerned with the high levels of UK household debt, describing it as a “major financial stability risk”.

This downbeat UK picture contrasts with a global economic outlook pick-up.

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