Economy faces darkest hour-  business news 14 January 2021.

James Salmon, Operations Director.

Dear readers, welcome back to our blog after a longer than anticipated break. Unfortunately, like many millions throughout the country,  I was personally struck with covid and after a long period of  quite bad illness, I am slowly on the mend, although I am still suffering with many of the symptoms of long covid

The economy faces darkest hour, will get worse before it gets better, business output hit record lows, covid-19, market and other business news.

Here are CPA we want to share the business news stories we have seen that we think will affect our members and readers. Many of us are busy fighting to protect our businesses and therefore might have missed some of the news that could impact small businesses, their owners and those that sell on credit.

Economy faces ‘darkest hour’ warns Bailey

Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, has warned that the economic recovery will be delayed by the third lockdown and surging Covid cases. Although the economy was facing its “darkest hour”, Mr Bailey told the Scottish Chambers of Commerce that a recovery is in sight at last after almost 3m people were vaccinated against COVID-19. The Governor also suggested the jobless rate is probably closer to 6.5% than the current 4.9% shown by official figures. The MPC meets early next month to discuss how the central bank can help to protect the economy during the lockdown, including whether interest rates should be cut to below zero – a move that could ease borrowing costs on households and businesses.

Chancellor warns UK economy will get worse before it gets better

Rishi Sunak has warned that while the vaccine provides hope the UK economy will “get worse before it gets better” telling MPs on Tuesday that “the road ahead will be tough”. The Chancellor said that fiscal stimulus provided so far amounted to more than £280bn, while 1.2m employers had furloughed almost 10m employees. The new national restrictions were necessary to control the spread of coronavirus, he continued, but they would have a further significant economic impact. Mr Sunak’s update was criticised by Anneliese Dodds, who accused the Chancellor of being “out of ideas”. The shadow chancellor added: “The purpose of an update is to provide us with new information, not to repeat what we already know.”

UK firms fearing twin threat of Brexit and Covid

A poll by the Federation of Small Businesses released on Monday has found that more than 250,000 small firms expect to fold without further government financial support as they look to grapple with the twin threats of COVID-19 and weaker post-Brexit trade with the EU. Just under 5% of the 1,400 companies surveyed by the FSB said they were expecting to close this year. If the same degree of pessimism applies across the UK’s 5.9m small businesses, that would suggest as many as 295,000 fear they will go under. Most firms said they did not expect their prospects to improve over the next three months. Separately, a survey conducted jointly by Make UK and PwC found that a third of companies believed investment prospects would decrease having left the EU. Customs delays, cited by 47% of firms, are seen as the biggest risk to companies.

Business output hit record lows in 2020

UK business output fell to its lowest ever levels in 2020 according to BDO with the firm’s output index averaging 73.62 last year, the lowest figure since the measure was introduced in 2005. Previously, the lowest annual average had been 83.28, which was recorded during 2009’s financial crisis. Commenting on the results, Kaley Crossthwaite, partner at BDO, said: “These figures reinforce just how stark the economic impact of the pandemic has been. As we enter a third national lockdown, crippling challenges will continue to plague businesses in the weeks and months ahead. Successful and rapid roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines will be the single biggest driver of business recovery.”

Even with vaccine, lockdowns here for another year – OECD

The OECD has warned that despite a programme of vaccination in place more lockdowns and social distancing could be with us for another 12 months. The organisation’s chief economist Laurence Boone told the BBC: “We must keep going both with the non-pharmaceutical measures, the government support and deploy the vaccine, as long and efficiently as fast as efficiently and securely as possible.” However, the OECD says global GDP for 2021 will rise to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year, but recovery won’t be equal across all countries.

Optimism rises among FDs going into 2021

Finance directors at Britain’s biggest companies are more optimistic going into 2021 than they were three months earlier, according to Deloitte’s latest survey of CFOs. Hopes for a return to growth and the advent of a Covid vaccination programme left a net 58% more upbeat about the prospects for their company. Despite most finance directors still planning to cut investment, discretionary spending and shed staff this year, the trend has improved from six months ago. Richard Houston, senior partner of Deloitte UK, said: “The pandemic has triggered fundamental and lasting changes in business, with CFOs expecting rising levels of home-working, greater diversification of supply chains and increasing investment in technology. CFOs are optimistic about operating in this changing world, with a return to growth expected this year. However, with pandemic restrictions expected to be in place through the first half of this year a nd elevated uncertainty, CFOs are maintaining defensive balance sheet positioning.”

SME lending surged in first three quarters of 2020

Gross lending to SMEs in the first three quarters of 2020 hit £54m, more than double the annual total for 2019, according to UK Finance. The value of lending in the second and third quarters was £36bn higher than during the same period of 2019, driven by continued uptake of government-backed support. Loan approval volumes, across both government schemes and commercial lending, for all industries increased through those quarters, with retail, hospitality, travel, tourism and construction receiving particularly high levels of support due to the scale of the pandemic impact. Approval volumes exceeded 150,000 for construction and retail in the period, and 200,000 for the professional and support services sector. In previous quarters, all industries averaged fewer than 20,000 approvals. With the focus of businesses firmly fixed on short-term replacement or preservation of trading cashflow, utilisation of overdraft facilities dropped from 54% in the first quarter to 39% in the third

Third lockdown could drive deficit to £450bn

Britain’s third national lockdown will put borrowing on course to hit £450bn this year, smashing the £394bn predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility only six weeks ago. Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at the EY Item Club, said a £450bn deficit was a “rising and genuine possibility”. He added: “I suspect the deficit could still be up around £100bn in five years’ time.” Elsewhere, JP Morgan UK economist Allan Monks predicts a 2.5% slide in growth for the first three months of the year.

UK economy set to be one of the last to recover from pandemic

A majority of economists believe UK GDP will not hit pre-pandemic levels until at least H2 2022, lagging behind international peers as unemployment, weak business investment and Brexit slow the recovery. Howard Archer, EY Item Club’s chief economic adviser, expects the economy to regain levels recorded before the coronavirus crisis by mid-2023, with growth of around 6% in 2021.

Report reveals change in expenses

Analysis by uSwitch shows that, for the average household, rent and council tax have risen more than any other household expenditure in the past fifty years. The study, which looked at the proportion of typical household income spent on costs such as bills, rent and food, found that people typically spend 15.47% of their salaries on rent, compared to just 10% in 1970. It was also found that utilities are costing people 5% more now than they did in the 1970s, with the average Briton spending £1,279 a year on fuelling their home in 2019. The study highlights changes over the past 50 years which have influenced household income, such as the introduction of the national minimum wage and the increase in women taking up paid work. It also notes that student loans and credit card fees are a financial outgoing that did not exist in the 1970s, with these now making up almost 6% of household spending.

FCA extends repossessions ban

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is extending its ban on house repossessions until April, saying it is taking the worsening pandemic and the Government’s tighter coronavirus-related restrictions into account. Under previous guidance, banks were told not to enforce repossessions before January 31 except in exceptional circumstances. The FCA has now said people who fall behind with mortgage payments will be given a grace period until April 1. Amid the pandemic, many customers have been protected by payment holidays, with mortgage borrowers and those on short-term credit agreements still able to apply for a pause on payments until March 31.

400k high street roles at risk

A shift toward online shopping and remote working amid the coronavirus crisis could see more than 400,000 high street jobs lost, analysis by KPMG suggests, with towns in the London commuter belt said to be most at risk. The study forecasts that offices will largely become “collaboration hubs”, with this likely to reduce the flow of commuters into towns and cities by between 10% and 27% compared to pre-pandemic levels. This will hit retailers and restaurants in town centres, with many of these dependent on commuters for sales. KPMG says high streets could lose between 20% to 40% of their shops, cafes and other businesses, with this affecting up to 5% of the local workforce. Chris Hearld, head of regions at KPMG, said: “As we leave the pandemic behind, towns and cities across the UK will need help and space to rethink the purpose of their centres,” while Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, commented: ” High streets will need to be reimagined as cultural and recreational hubs to act as magnets for businesses and jobs able to transform less prosperous areas.”

Small shops at risk from rule change

The British Retail Consortium and the Federation of Small Businesses have cautioned that a three metre social distancing rule under consideration by government would make many smaller shops unviable. Tom Ironside at the BRC remarked: “Moving to a rule requiring greater distancing would inevitably limit the numbers of customers allowed into stores and could even undermine the viability of some shops,” while the FSB’s Mike Cherry noted that “Many will have spent hundreds if not more, ensuring they are COVID secure and this would be yet another hammer blow to small firms who are vital to getting the national economy back on track once again.”

UK retailers see little respite from Covid gloom over festive period

Figures from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG show retail sales for the year as a whole were 0.3% below 2019 levels – the worst performance in the 25 years. While food sales growth rose 5.4% on 2019, non-food fell about 5%.

Retail woes continued in December

Retail sales for December were negative for the first time on record last year, according to research by BDO. Total like-for-like sales declined 1.6% last month, from a strong base of 6.6% growth in December 2019. BDO head of retail and wholesale Sophie Michael said: “Early January spending figures suggest shoppers weren’t simply waiting for discounting, but instead stopping discretionary spend altogether as the nation hunkers down for a long winter lockdown.” Separate research by the British Retail Consortium showed that footfall was down 46.1% in December compared to 2019 levels, but was up 19.3% on the previous month.

Staff mental health hit by pandemic

Research by Purbeck Insurance Services shows that 66% of female employees at SMEs and 62% of male staff feel their mental health has suffered as a result of the pandemic. This comes after an Aviva poll found 58% of employees had neglected their physical well-being due to work pressures since the coronavirus outbreak, with 55% failing to look after their mental well-being. The Telegraph notes that a growing number of large employers now give employees access to wellness apps such as Unmind, with KPMG among those making the app available to staff.

Seven in ten furlough requests from working mums rejected

A TUC survey of more than 50,000 working mothers found that 71% of those who asked to be furloughed following school closures were turned down. The study found that two in five working parents were unaware they have been entitled to request furlough since March, with the job retention scheme allowing employers to furlough parents unable to work due to school or nursery closures. The poll shows that 78% of working parents have not been offered furlough by their employer, while 25% of mums are using annual leave to manage their childcare, 18% have been forced to reduce their working hours and 7% are taking unpaid leave.

A quarter of British employees could work from home permanently

One in four British employees could end up working from home long-term, according to a survey by Deloitte, which found 97% of CFOs predict this outcome as companies make changes introduced during the pandemic permanent. “By and large, this massive, forced experiment in home-working has been very successful. Sectors have been able to maintain quite a high degree of effectiveness operating from home,” said Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte. However, this does not spell the end of the office, Mr Stewart continued, stating that people overwhelmingly want a combination of home and office work so they can continue to work with others.

One in five calls to HMRC for tax help abandoned

Figures show that almost 400,000 taxpayers, one in five, who call HMRC for help hang up after being left on hold for an average nine minutes. This compares to a rate of just 3% of calls four years ago. The figures come as the helpline is braced for unprecedented volumes of calls with the annual self-assessment deadline barely two weeks away.

Extend stamp duty holiday to prevent meltdown, Sunak told

Campaigners are calling on Chancellor Rishi Sunak to extend the stamp duty holiday amid warnings that over 320,000 current buyers will miss out on savings of up to £15,000 if it ends as planned on March 31st. more than 100,000 of them could subsequently pull out of deals – potentially hammering sales volumes, harming the economy and hitting prices. Chris Etherington, a partner at tax service provider RSM, said: “There is little logic in doing these measures and then pulling the rug out from under the feet of estate agents by having the cliff edge of the stamp duty holiday.”

UK house price growth slows as end of stamp duty holiday nears

UK house price growth slowed to 0.2% in December, down from 1% the previous month, according to the Halifax. It was the lowest rise since June and less than the 0.5% growth forecast by economists. Halifax said UK house prices ended 2020 on average 6% higher than in 2019, hitting an average of £253,374, but with the stamp duty holiday coming to an end, a third national lockdown and a predicted rise in unemployment, downward pressure on prices remains likely over the course of 2021.

Marriage tax perk should be increased ten-fold, thinktank says

Rishi Sunak has been urged to replace the marriage tax allowance with a new family tax allowance. MPs have backed the proposal from the Onward thinktank, which would allow people who have to quit or reduce work, to look after children or sick relatives, to switch their entire £12,500 personal allowance to give a spouse £25,000 of tax-free income, saving them up to £2,500. Current rules permit a married person who earns less than the £12,500 income tax threshold to transfer £1,250 of their personal allowance to their spouse, reducing their tax bill by up to £250 a year. The report from Onward also suggests giving workers the ability to draw down a year of their pension early to take a ‘civic sabbatical’ to volunteer in the community.

Scottish SMEs least confident in the UK

The Federation of Small Businesses’ UK-wide small business confidence index fell to -49.3 points at the end of 2020, the second lowest ever recorded by the research series. But Scottish business confidence is the lowest in the country, with the equivalent Scottish figure plunging to -69 points, from -26.3 points in the autumn. Andrew McRae, FSB Scotland policy chair, said: “The average Scottish business owner has grave fears about the future. These worries are founded upon firms facing weeks or months of restrictions after likely draining their cash reserves and taking on significant debt. That’s why governments in Edinburgh and London need to back our small businesses and those that work for themselves.”

Covid

Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned the U.K.’s hospitals could be overwhelmed as the country registered its highest daily death toll since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Studies from Israel show that a single dose of the covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech cuts infection rates by at least a third within ten to 12 days.While another showed infections fell by 60% after 14 days. This is important as Ireal leads the way with vaccination, with more than 20% of Israelis have received at least one jab.

Elsewhere, early-trial results showed that Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine produced an immune response in almost all of its volunteers.

And from the WHO,  an international team of scientists are flying to Wuhan today to study, with Chinese scientists, the origins of covid-19. Delayed by politics, it is hoped to learn how the virus spread to humans and see what lessons can be learned for the future.

Europe’s football giants see €1bn loss

Analysis from KPMG shows that twenty of Europe’s biggest football clubs lost more than €1bn in revenue over the past year, with pressure brought about by the coronavirus crisis also knocking almost 10% off players’ average values. A 20-team sample of European sides calculated an aggregate loss of revenue of €1bn. Of the sampled teams only two had an increase in revenue over last season.

Don’t let Covid-19 bust your business!

It will if your cash flow dries up, either sooner or later.

The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid since 1914. We have seen many financial crises, this one will be particularly deadly for suppliers for sometime to come.

CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. Above all tactfully, because maintenance of goodwill is paramount.

To meet the needs of creditors in the current crisis, we have designed a “critical care” package especially tailored for the situation.

  • The annual package costs start at very low rates
  • A minimum performance warranty is provided
  • Several complimentary services included

Clients instruct CPA on-line via their PC or phone, completely user-friendly. Your late paying customers are told to pay you direct (not to us).

A very recent report shows a 23% increase in the number of unpaid invoices since March 11th THIS YEAR – are you getting a build-up of late payers?

Right now, overdue accounts must be a concern and CPA has a great track record of encouraging slow-payers to pay their suppliers quickly.

It takes less than 17 minutes to see how you would benefit, do you have the time now?

No face-to-face meeting required – just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.

When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.

Do you sell on credit?

With pressures on the cash flow it is essential that you stay on top of the credit limits you grant customers and watch carefully for any late payments.

Those customers will look for the easiest option to boost their cash-flow. Don’t let it be you.

You can’t just assume your customers can and will pay you eventually, no matter how big their name is.

It is essential to have credit management systems in place to monitor and check your customers credit worthiness.

It is also best practice to use a trusted third party like CPA to make sure you are paid on time by customers, no matter how good a name they have.

About CPA

The Credit Protection Association can help!

Formed in 1914, CPA has been providing credit management services to SMEs for over 100 years.

At the Credit Protection Association, we provide first class credit information that can help you avoid being over extended to customers who are at risk. Our monitoring service can flag up warning signs long before the end, giving you the chance to adjust and reduce your exposure. We provide recommended credit limits and credit scores on a traffic light system and can help you set appropriate credit policies for your customers.

We regularly publish lists of the latest insolvencies but by then it is too late. Our credit reports however predict approximately 96% of company insolvencies long before they arrive.

Companies in trouble usually have very bad cash flow and they try to deal with it by delaying payment to their suppliers, increasing your exposure to them.

If you supply on credit, help us help you identify the risks.

Why use a third party collector?

As a third party collector, we can also get your payments prioritised over those who are not as hot on collections. When your customer receives a letter from the Credit Protection Association regarding their outstanding account, they are going to want to get that resolved as a priority. Our overdue account recovery service can get your unpaid invoices to the top of their “to do” list and get your invoice paid.

Over the years we have collected billions in overdue invoices for our customers.

Our debt recovery and credit management services give our members the financial freedom needed to grow and prosper, while our new Late Payment Compensation department could unlock hidden potential and offer the compensation needed to springboard your business to success.

You might be hesitant about contacting a debt collection agency. What are they going to be like?

Can they help your particular type of business?

There is no need for concern. CPA are courteous, helpful and very probably have had direct experience of working with your type of business.

Debt collection agencies are not all alike.

Success lies in both recovering money and keeping customers happy. The Credit Protection Association was founded in 1914 and has helped tens of thousands of UK businesses to collect outstanding payments and reduce the risk of incurring bad debt. We believe that creditors deserve to be paid for the work or goods they have supplied but we fully understand the need to maintain
the best possible relationship with customers!

At The Credit Protection Association, we provide solutions, advice and back-up in all areas relating to the supply of services or goods on account. Client-members receive everything they need from a single source to reduce debtor days and write-offs.

The Credit Protection Association has helped has assisted tens of thousands of UK businesses with their credit control requirements, since the First World War.

We are polite, firm and efficient when it comes to recovering outstanding debt.

“We have used CPA for a number of years now. The website is easy to navigate around with lots of helpful reports. The staff are always at hand and very friendly. CPA has helped us reduce our debt over the years and keep track of potential issues with our customers.”
~ CPA client in Buckinghamshire

“The service from CPA has proved to be everything that you said it would be. We have already seen a huge benefit. We have had a number of overdue accounts paid promptly and directly to us. It is also a huge weight off our mind to know that once we have passed an overdue payment over to you, you take care of everything whilst keeping us informed.
~ Credit Controller client in Warrington

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections

 

Ready to speak to an advisor?

For help or advice on credit management, entirely without obligation.

Call us today

0330 053 9263

CPA is passionate about late payment

The Credit Protection Association has been protecting smaller firms against poor payment practices for over 100 years.

We are extremely passionate about breaking the late payment culture that holds back the UK economy and threatens many SMEs, with cash flow difficulties being the single biggest killer of Britain’s small businesses.

If you were regularly paid late we can help. Those former customers used you to boost their own cashflow, regularly paying you late.

As a result you had extra costs, you had the distraction of having to chase payment, you had opportunity costs because your capital was tied up in their late invoices.

Under little used legislation, you are entitled to compensation for those late payments.

You put up with the PAIN – now claim the GAIN!

Now you can boost your own cash-flow.

CPA can help unearth the those hidden treasures.

We have the technology to reveal the compensation you are due and we have the extensive experience and expertise to then turn those claims into cash.

Did you know that your business is entitled to a minimum of £40 for every commercial invoice paid late to you over the past 6 years?

How many of your invoices are paid late each month – 20, 50, 100 or more?

At £40 per invoice that’s claim of £57,600, £144,000, £288,000 plus interest. The more invoices the bigger the claim! 

At £100 per invoice it’s £144,000, £360,000, £720,000 plus interest.

Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!

For over 20 years, CPA has calculated and recovered Late Payment Compensation on behalf of Clients!  

Yes, CPA can help you boost your business cash-flow.

Don’t let your bankers control you, contact CPA today.

Discover NOW the potential value of late payment compensation hidden in your sales ledger!

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.

Read our blog here on how to crack down on the late payment culture.

Read our blog here on how to give late payers the slap they need.

The “Why” of the late payment culture.

New PM should walk the walk and back small firms over late payments

Paying late is “crack cocaine” to big business.

Late payment culture risks “spiraling out of control”

visit our late payment compensation page

See our full blog and FAQ on late payment compensation

Do you realise you could be sitting on a fortune?

Late payments often result in a cash flow crunch and leave SMEs in need of a cash injection.

If you sold B2B on credit then there may be a hidden source of capital you can call on.

If you fancy an extra bit of extra cash in your business, rather than jumping through hoops with your bank, you could look to uncover the resources from an unexpected source within your own business.

Not many are aware but there could be a hidden fortune within your business, sitting there, just waiting to be uncovered and released.

We can help you uncover the pile of gold, you didn’t even know you were sitting on.

If you trade with other businesses and were often paid late then you could be entitled to significant compensation.

Under little known and under-utilised legislation your business could be due huge amounts in compensation that you didn’t even know about.

Let’s be clear – this is not a way to weaken any customer relationships you value. It is one that identifies who’s been paying late and then recover the potentially significant sums in compensation using Late Payment Legislation from businesses where the relationship has already ended.

You can pick and choose who you want us to follow up – but once we’ve agreed which companies you’d like to pursue compensation from it’s a fast process and there’s no financial outlay to you whatsoever. My team at CPA put its expertise to work to recover the compensation due and fight late payment culture.

That compensation could provide the cash boost your business needed.

But don’t delay, that compensation evaporates if not claimed within six years of the late payment.

How can CPA help?

CPA has developed a unique technology to dig into your accounting records and discover the cash injection you are due by means of compensation. The software does all the hard work. Our software interacts over the cloud with over 300 different software packages, working directly with your accounts package, just so long as it’s stored on a computer.

We recognise that most companies do not have the resources to spend time on the identification and calculation of Late Payment Compensation. Our service can produce an Analyses within just a few days with (usually) less than 30 mins of co-operation from our clients. We work directly with over 300 accounting packages but can also work with bespoke accounts packages. Indeed, speed is essential as the oldest invoices may fall foul of the 6-year time limit.

Once the Sales Ledger Analyses is made available to clients, all that is required is that management decide which commercially sensitive ex-customers to remove from the list and return it to us.

CPA then uses its years of collection experience to explain and recover the Late Payment Compensation Claims. Clients do not handle any part of the recovery process as our team will take all communications from the companies against who the claims has been made. Often, it’s simply a case of explaining the legislation, sometimes we have to go all the way and enforce the legislation through the courts.

The result is that we are realising clients’ claims worth tens and sometimes hundreds of thousands of pounds which, of course, is pure net profit. You may also be among the recipients of “hundreds of thousands of pounds” should you elect to take advantage of our services.

We do the work, you receive the cash.

If you have supplied goods and services to businesses on credit and were regularly paid late then you could be due significant sums in late payment compensation.

We are talking to companies and unearthing claims in the hundreds of thousands from former business customers who paid them late. Large business customers who abused their power to inflict unfair and sometimes illegal payment practices.

We are helping business owners who are looking to boost the returns from their business before they retire. We are helping businesses who have lost major clients after years of loyal service to get properly compensated for systematic late payment. We are helping companies that were looking to close down, who looked insolvent and finding that cash injection they need to avoid insolvency.

Those former clients who regularly paid you late can finally be made to pay.

Ready to speak to an advisor?

For help or advice on credit management, entirely without obligation.

Call us today

0330 053 9263

The Credit Protection Association is a credit management company established in 1914. If you supply goods or services on credit then we can help you!

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.

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The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections.