Unemployment and GDP predictions – Covid-19 business news 9 June 2020.

9 June 2020.

James Salmon, Operations Director.

We look at predictions on unemployment, the latest news on the virus and markets. The World Bank estimates the effect of covid-19 on global GDP.  The growing household debt crisis, the need to switch from expensive loans and much much more.

The Covid-19 lock-down continues and we are having to make do in a new normal.

Here are CPA we want to  share the business news stories we have seen that we think will affect our members and readers. Many of us are busy fighting to protect our businesses and therefore might have missed some of the news that could impact small businesses, their owners and those that sell on credit.

Covid-19 general news

The UK recorded its lowest daily rise in the number of covid-19 deaths since before lock-down on 23rd March, latest government figures show. A further 55 people died after testing positive with the virus, taking the total to 40,597. This included no new deaths announced in Scotland and Northern Ireland for the second consecutive day.

London reported no virus-linked deaths for the first time since the lock-downs began in the U.K. and Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to set out further restriction-easing plans today.

Pubs & Restaurants in England could re-open earlier than planned. They had been preparing to start serving customers outdoors from 4th July, but it is reported that the government is planning to vring that forward to 22nd June in a “save summer” move. MPs may discuss the issue on Tuesday but the hospitality sector is cautious about the benefit for jobs and trade.

The World Bank said the Covid-19 pandemic will cause global economic output to contract by 5.2% in 2020, as more than 90% of the world’s economies have fallen into recession. The bank warned that the figures could be even worse if lock-downs are not lifted by the second half of the year.

Transmission of the coronavirus by people who aren’t showing symptoms is “very rare,” the World Health Organization said, contradicting a widely held belief among health officials and researchers that the disease was being spread by people who weren’t showing signs of illness.

The infection rate in New York fell to the lowest since the pandemic started as shops begin to reopen in the city.

The journal Nature released a peer reviewed study indicating that as many as half a billion infections may have been prevented by lockdown measures in six countries.

New analysis from researchers at Boston and Harvard universities suggests the coronavirus could have been circulating in China as early as the summer of 2019, much earlier than previous estimates.

Research from genetic-testing giant 23andMe Inc. found a person’s blood type can affect a person’s susceptibility to Covid-19. Preliminary results from more than 750,000 participants suggests type O blood is especially protective against the virus.


The FTSE 100 took stock on last weeks gains and fell yesterday by 0.18% to 6472 as investors turned their eyes to the next US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The Eurostoxx 50 was also down 0.53%. Both the NASDAQ and S&P500 turned positive for the year, now higher than they were on 31st December, erasing the losses in March when it was 25% down, with the indexes climbing around 1.2% yesterday as investors continued to view the recovery with optimism.

Asian stocks however with mixed with gains in China but a fall in Japan.

Gold prices rose on Monday, with some market correction after last weeks steep fall.

Oil prices slipped on Monday after Saudi Arabia said an extension of output cuts by OPEC+ nations would not include extra voluntary cuts by a trio of Gulf producers.

Big drop in UK vacancies stokes fears of mass unemployment

Vacancies across the UK have fallen to their lowest levels for more than three years as recruiters warn of a “tsunami of job losses” when furlough comes to an end.

James Reed, chairman of recruitment group Reed, said predicted that unemployment could rise to 5m, or 15% of the workforce.

A poll by Manpower reveals 57% of employers don’t expect to return to pre-COVID-19 hiring levels until this time next year. A net 12% more firms plan to axe staff than take on new workers between July and September, the worst outlook in the survey’s 28-year history.

Meanwhile, speaking at the CogX 2020 technology conference, Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, said the huge numbers of people on furlough or facing unemployment because of the lockdown meant there was “a level of inactivity in the jobs market we haven’t seen, possibly ever.”

British households facing mounting debt crisis

Bank of England figures show UK households repaid a record £7.4bn of debt on credit cards and personal loans in April while household bank deposits also rose £16.2bn, more than triple the usual monthly figure.

However, research by the Resolution Foundation indicates only one in eight low-income households experienced budget gains during the crisis compared with two in five high-income families.

The charity StepChange said that since the beginning of lockdown in late March, 4.2m people had borrowed to make ends meet with 2.7m people using payment holidays on mortgages and credit products.

Small businesses urged to switch from expensive CBILS

Analysis by HW Fisher has found small businesses that have accessed the cash through the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) are paying far higher charges than those that waited until the newer Bounce Back programme.

In some cases firms are paying 6% interest compared with the 2.5% fixed-rate for the bounce back loans. Simon Michaels, of HW Fisher, said that businesses are able to switch their loans by speaking to their bank.

Global economy set to contract by 5.2% in 2020 – World Bank

A report from the World Bank says the world economy is expected to contract by 5.2% in 2020 – the worst recession in 80 years – but the number of countries suffering economic losses means the scale of the downturn is worse than any recession in 150 years, the Global Economic Prospects report said.

While China will see GDP rise by just 1%, the US will see a 6.1% fall, the eurozone a 9.1% drop, Japan faces a 6.1% decline, Brazil will fall by 8%, Mexico will be down 7.5% and India will experience a 3.2% slump.

The World Bank warned that considering the high risks to the global outlook, the fall in GDP could be revised down to minus 8%.

May’s sales figures improve on April

British retailers reported a 5.9% fall in sales in May compared with a year earlier, data from KPMG and the British Retail Consortium show.

Total spending was down 19.1% in April when almost all non-essential stores were closed due to coronavirus restrictions. Barclaycard said its broader measure of consumer spending, based on transactions on around half of Britain’s credit and debit cards, showed a 27.7% annual fall in May compared with a record 36.5% drop in April.

Wagamama owner considering CVA

The Restaurant Group is considering entering into a company voluntary arrangement (CVA), as it enters talks with its landlords over cutting rents and closing sites. The news comes after the company, which owns Wagamama, Frankie & Benny’s and Chiquito, said it is looking to permanently close up to 120 restaurants, putting 3,000 jobs at risk. Meanwhile, Casual Dining Group and Azzurri Group are among other casual dining groups that have appointed advisers to look at strategic options.


The UK and Japan are due to begin talks with the goal of reaching agreement on a post-Brexit trade deal. The negotiations come as London and Tokyo work towards replacing the agreement Britain currently has with Japan through the European Union. Without a new deal by 1 January 2021 the two countries will default to World Trade Organization trading terms.

Companies offer virtual internships to help 800,000 students

A raft of blue chip companies are inviting students to apply for virtual internships this summer amid concerns about a fall in confidence among young people about their job prospects as a result of the coronavirus crisis. Google, Marks & Spencer, PwC and Vodafone are among those that will be taking part in what Bright Network, a graduate recruitment company, described as the UK’s largest virtual careers experience. The programme, Internship Experience UK, is using £100,000 raised from venture capitalists and will offer places for up to 800,000 people.

Audit needs to respond to a changing landscape

In a piece for the Telegraph, Stephen Griggs, Deloitte’s deputy CEO and managing partner audit & assurance says that while COVID-19 may have slowed the pace of audit reform it has not detracted from the “pressing need” for change. “Access to reliable, timely, transparent and meaningful data and insights to inform this reporting is now more important than ever, allowing stakeholders – investors, employees, suppliers, government and regulators – to distinguish well-governed companies and their ability to mitigate disruption,” says Griggs, adding: “Responsible reporting should aim to both inform and assure. It is a chance to build, retain and recover trust as we navigate through this crisis, and beyond.”

DIY investors suffer losses in company cash raises

The Telegraph reports that a scandal is brewing as private investors suffer huge losses as companies issue new shares at heavily discounted prices to fund managers, diluting investors’ holdings and often sending share values down. The Financial Conduct Authority permitted companies to double the 10% limit on emergency new issues earlier this year to enable firms to raise cash quickly amid the pandemic. Richard Wilson of Interactive Investor said: “The fact that it’s legal is astonishing. It flies in the face of the integrity of the financial system.” Anand Sambasivan of Primarybid dismissed claims that involving private investors took too long saying his firm has successfully connected private investors with fund raisings for Compass Group, and outsource IWG. “Timing is not the issue. For some of our fund raisings we managed to get £25m in a matter of hours. The issue is what businesses are allocating to retail investors,” he said. “Markets are public or they’re not.”

Don’t let Covid-19 bust your business!

 It will if your cash flow dries up, either sooner or later.

The Credit Protection Association (CPA) has been assisting thousands of UK businesses to get paid since 1914. We have seen many financial crises, this one will be particularly deadly for suppliers for sometime to come.

CPA eases cash from tardy debtors – Efficiently, Effectively, Economically and Ethically. Above all tactfully, because maintenance of goodwill is paramount.

To meet the needs of creditors in the current crisis, we have designed a “critical care” package especially tailored for the situation.

  • The annual package costs start at very low rates
  • A minimum performance warranty is provided
  • Several complimentary services included

Clients instruct CPA on-line via their PC or phone, completely user-friendly. Your late paying customers are told to pay you direct (not to us).

A very recent report shows a 23% increase in the number of unpaid invoices since March 11th THIS YEAR – are you getting a build-up of late payers?

 Right now, overdue accounts must be a concern and CPA has a great track record of encouraging slow-payers to pay their suppliers quickly.

It takes less than 17 minutes to see how you would benefit, do you have the time now?

No face-to-face meeting required – just call Peter Uwins, CPA’s National Sales Manager, on 020 8846 0000 (business hours) or email nsm@cpa.co.uk today.

When you see your money come in, you will be so glad you used CPA.

Do you sell on credit?

With pressures on the cash flow it is essential that you stay on top of the credit limits you grant customers and watch carefully for any late payments.

Those customers will look for the easiest option  to boost their cash-flow. Don’t let it be you.

You can’t just assume your customers can and will pay you eventually, no matter how big their name is.

It is essential to have credit management systems in place to monitor and check your customers credit worthiness.

It is also best practice to use a trusted third party like CPA to make sure you are paid on time by customers, no matter how good a name they have.

About CPA

The Credit Protection Association can help!

Formed in 1914, CPA has been providing credit management services to SMEs for over 100 years.

At the Credit Protection Association, we provide first class credit information that can help you avoid being over extended to customers who are at risk. Our monitoring service can flag up warning signs long before the end, giving you the chance to adjust and reduce your exposure. We provide recommended credit limits and credit scores on a traffic light system and can help you set appropriate credit policies for your customers.

We regularly publish lists of the latest insolvencies but by then it is too late. Our credit reports however predict approximately 96% of company insolvencies long before they arrive.

Companies in trouble usually have very bad cash flow and they try to deal with it by delaying payment to their suppliers, increasing your exposure to them.

If you supply on credit, help us help you identify the risks.

Why use a third party collector?

As a third party collector, we can also get your payments prioritised over those who are not as hot on collections. When your customer receives a letter from the Credit Protection Association regarding their outstanding account, they are going to want to get that resolved as a priority. Our overdue account recovery service can get your unpaid invoices to the top of their “to do” list and get your invoice paid.

Over the years we have collected billions in overdue invoices for our customers.

Our debt recovery and credit management services give our members the financial freedom needed to grow and prosper, while our new Late Payment Compensation department could unlock hidden potential and offer the compensation needed to springboard your business to success.

You might be hesitant about contacting a debt collection agency. What are they going to be like?

Can they help your particular type of business?

There is no need for concern. CPA are courteous, helpful and very probably have had direct experience of working with your type of business.

Debt collection agencies are not all alike.

Success lies in both recovering money and keeping customers happy. The Credit Protection Association was founded in 1914 and  has helped tens of thousands of UK businesses to collect outstanding payments and reduce the risk of incurring bad debt. We believe that creditors deserve to be paid for the work or goods they have supplied but we fully understand the need to maintain
the best possible relationship with customers!

At The Credit Protection Association, we provide solutions, advice and back-up in all areas relating to the supply of services or goods on account. Client-members receive everything they need from a single source to reduce debtor days and write-offs.

The Credit Protection Association has helped has assisted tens of thousands of UK businesses with their credit control requirements, since the First World War.

We are polite, firm and efficient when it comes to recovering outstanding debt.

“We have used CPA for a number of years now. The website is easy to navigate around with lots of helpful reports. The staff are always at hand and very friendly. CPA has  helped us reduce our debt over the years and keep track of potential issues with our customers.”
~ CPA client in Buckinghamshire

“The service from CPA has proved to be everything that you said it would be. We have already seen a huge benefit. We have had a number of overdue accounts paid promptly and directly to us. It is also a huge weight off our mind to know that once we have passed an overdue payment over to you, you take care of everything whilst keeping us informed.
~ Credit Controller client in Warrington

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections


Ready to speak to an advisor?

For help or advice on credit management, entirely without obligation.

Call us today

0330 053 9263

CPA is passionate about late payment

The Credit Protection Association has been protecting smaller firms against poor payment practices for over 100 years.

We are extremely passionate about breaking the late payment culture that holds back the UK economy and threatens many SMEs with cash flow difficulties being the single biggest killer of Britain’s small businesses.

If you were regularly paid late we can help. Those former customers used you to boost their own cashflow, regularly paying you late.

As a result you had extra costs, you had the distraction of having to chase payment, you had opportunity costs because your capital was tied up in their late invoices.

Under little used legislation, you are entitled to compensation for those late payments.

Now you can boost your own cash-flow.

CPA can help unearth the those hidden treasures.

We have the technology to reveal the compensation you are due and we have the extensive experience and expertise to then turn those claims into cash.

Yes, CPA can help you boost your business cash-flow.

Don’t let your bankers control you, contact CPA today.

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections

Read our blog here on how to crack down on the late payment culture.

Read our blog here on how to give late payers the slap they need.

The “Why” of the late payment culture.

New PM should walk the walk and back small firms over late payments

Paying late is “crack cocaine” to big business.

Late payment culture risks “spiraling out of control”

visit our late payment compensation page

See our full blog and FAQ on late payment compensation

Do you realise you could be sitting on a fortune?

Late payments often result in a cash flow crunch and leave SMEs in need of a cash injection.

If you sold B2B on credit then there may be a hidden source of capital you can call on.

If you fancy an bit of extra cash in your business, rather than jumping through hoops with your bank, you could look to uncover the resources from an unexpected source within your own business.

Not many are aware but there could be a hidden fortune within your business, sitting there, just waiting to be uncovered and released.

We can help you uncover the pile of gold, you didn’t even know you were sitting on.

If you trade with other businesses and were often paid late then you could be entitled to significant compensation.

Under little known and under-utilised legislation your business could be due huge amounts in compensation that you didn’t even know about.

Let’s be clear – this is not a way to weaken any customer relationships you value. It is one that identifies who’s been paying late and then recover the potentially significant sums in compensation using Late Payment Legislation from businesses where the relationship has already ended.

You can pick and choose who you want us to follow up – but once we’ve agreed which companies you’d like to pursue compensation from it’s a fast process and there’s no financial outlay to you whatsoever. My team at CPA put its expertise to work to recover the compensation due and fight late payment culture.

That compensation could provide the cash boost your business needed.

But don’t delay, that compensation evaporates if not claimed within six years of the late payment.

How can CPA help?

CPA has developed a unique technology to dig into your accounting records and discover the cash injection you are due by means of compensation. The software does all the hard work. Our software interacts over the cloud with over 300 different software packages, working directly with your accounts package, just so long as it’s stored on a computer.

We recognise that most companies do not have the resources to spend time on the identification and calculation of Late Payment Compensation. Our service can produce an Analyses within just a few days with (usually) less than 30 mins of co-operation from our clients. We work directly with over 300 accounting packages but can also work with bespoke accounts packages. Indeed, speed is essential as the oldest invoices may fall foul of the 6-year time limit.

Once the Sales Ledger Analyses is made available to clients, all that is required is that management decide which commercially sensitive ex-customers to remove from the list and return it to us.

CPA then uses its years of collection experience to explain and recover the Late Payment Compensation Claims. Clients do not handle any part of the recovery process as our team will take all communications from the companies against who the claims has been made. Often, it’s simply a case of explaining the legislation, sometimes we have to go all the way and enforce the legislation through the courts.

The result is that we are realising clients’ claims worth tens and sometimes hundreds of thousands of pounds which, of course, is pure net profit.  You may also be among the recipients of “hundreds of thousands of pounds” should you elect to take advantage of our services.

We do the work, you receive the cash.

If you have supplied goods and services to businesses on credit and were regularly paid late then you could be due significant sums in late payment compensation.

We are talking to companies and unearthing claims in the hundreds of thousands from former business customers who paid them late. Large business customers who abused their power to inflict unfair and sometimes illegal payment practices.

We are helping business owners  who are looking to boost the returns from their business before they retire. We are helping businesses who have lost major clients after years of loyal service to get properly compensated for systematic late payment. We are helping companies that were looking to close down, who looked insolvent and finding that cash injection they need to avoid insolvency.

Those former clients who regularly paid you late can finally be made to pay.

Ready to speak to an advisor?

For help or advice on credit management, entirely without obligation.

Call us today

0330 053 9263

The Credit Protection Association is a credit management company established in 1914. If you supply goods or services on credit then we can help you!

The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections

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Read our blog here on how to crack down on the late payment culture.

Read our blog here on how to give late payers the slap they need.

25 excuses for late payment and how to get around them.

Read our Cash Flow Advice

Read about our overdue account recovery service

Read our blog – What is credit management?

Read our blog – How to select a debt collection agency

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see our blog – 15 steps to avoid invoice fraud

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The Credit Protection Association – Prompting Punctual Payments – Ethical, Effective, Efficient, Economical collections